Fact Or Fiction: Can Shackleford triumph at Belmont?

Shackleford will contest the Kelso Handicap.

TVG Analyst Simon Bray and Timeform's Head of Research and Handicapping Simon Rowlands discuss upcoming big races at Belmont in the US, Newmarket in the UK and Longchamp in France in 'Fact or Fiction'...

Cornhusker Handicap and Whitney Invitational winner Fort Larned will complete the hat-trick in the $1million TVG Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Simon Bray: FICTION. For me it's a match-up between the one two finishers of the Whitney. Although the improving Fort Larned won the Whitney in impressive fashion over Ron the Greek, I think the tables will be turned this time. In the Whitney, Fort Larned had a dream trip saving every inch of ground. Ron the Greek on the other hand was widest of all turning for home giving up so much valuable ground. He certainly can make up the 1 1/4 lengths he lost by in the Whitney if he gets a better trip.

Simon Rowlands: FICTION. Fort Larned is a classy and tough colt, but Ron The Greek is slightly better on balance on Timeform ratings and most of the others should be snapping at their heels as well. Fort Larned was pretty impressive in the Whitney, but Ron The Greek got going much too late that day, has a small weight swing, and will be better suited by the extra furlong at Belmont. Let's not forget that Ron The Greek is the only horse to have beaten Wise Dan this year, in a Stephen Foster Handicap in which Fort Larned finished last.

Metropolitan Handicap winner Shackleford can record his second C&D success of the year in the Kelso Handicap.

Simon Bray: FACT. Shackleford is back to his best trip and configuration in the Kelso. That is, a one turn mile. There were legitimate excuses for his most recent defeat. Firstly, six furlongs was probably too short. (It was the first time he had ever tried that distance). Also, his two worst defeats of his career have now come at Saratoga. Known as the "grave yard of favorites", many great horses have been beaten there. Back at Belmont in the Kelso he can regain winning form.

Simon Rowlands: FACT. Or, at least, he has a major chance of doing so. While Shackleford is pretty versatile regarding distance, his combination of speed and stamina may well be seen to absolute best effect at around a mile. The dangers are: getting caught up in a pace battle, though it's difficult to see front-runner Pacific Ocean seeing things out; and the other horses, of course. To Honor And Serve, in particular, is a worthy rival, but Shackleford can have his measure if at his best after a short break.

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey will saddle a Graded Stakes winner at Belmont on Saturday.

Simon Bray: FACT. Even though Shug has runners in three Grade 1 races on Saturday, his best chance will come with Point of Entry in The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational. The middle distance turf horses in the US the last several years have been just so-so. Therefore it is exciting to see a horse like the Shug McGaughey-trained Point of Entry starting to make a real impact in this division. He has won five of his last six races, all on turf, including two Grade 1 events. In his most recent start in the Sword Dancer (Gr1) he won by 4l defeating Al Khali, who came back to finish a game second by a nose in a Grade 1 at Woodbine two weeks ago behind world traveller Wigmore Hall. The lone Euro invader is Treasure Beach. He was beaten 10l by Point of Entry last time they met. It's Point of Entry's race to lose. Simply, he is the best horse in the field.

Simon Rowlands: FACT. It won't be with Hit It Rich in the Flower Bowl, and it probably won't be with Hymn Book in the big one (though both horses may sneak into the first three), but Point of Entry looks very difficult to beat in the Joe Hirsch. He is behind only Wise Dan among older horses in North America on Timeform ratings, having been especially impressive in the Sword Dancer last time, and should have too much stamina for Little Mike and too much class for them all.

Aidan O'Brien has won the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket three times in the last six years but won't have the winner this Saturday.

Simon Bray: FACT. There are some strong challenges to the Ballydoyle runner this year. The three main challenges come from Toronado from Richard Hannon's stable, Fantastic Moon from Jeremy Noseda's yard and Mark Johnston's Steeler. One of those three will decide the outcome. I give the edge to Fantastic Moon who is undefeated and was an impressive winner of the Solario Stakes last out. He is a colt who is still improving and will appreciate the extra distance.

Simon Rowlands: FACT. With just one representative this time - Afonso de Sousa - he is up against it, with Steeler, Fantastic Moon and Al Waab all marginally preferred. Steeler was one place ahead of Afonso de Sousa at York and has won well since. That said, O'Brien's colt is a half-brother to no less a horse than Big Brown, so it's early days to be stating categorically that his improvement has ended. There is no Frankel (winner in 2010) in the field, but the race could yet turn up a good horse.

Japanese Triple Crown winner Orfevre is the most likely winner of Europe's premier middle-distance event, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday October 7.

Simon Bray: FICTION. Just. Last year's Japanese Triple Crown winner Orfevre will have a very realistic chance at winning this race. However, if Camelot lines up, he will be the one to beat for me. Yes, he missed his chance of becoming a Triple Crown winner in the St Leger last time, but I thought that Joseph O Brien did not give the son of Montjeu a great ride. He was boxed in turning for home and eventual winner Encke got first jump on him. Back to 1 1/2 miles and a better ride he will get back in the spotlight. Three-year-olds have a great record in this race.

Simon Rowlands: FICTION, though I am hoping it proves to be FACT, having backed the colt at bigger odds some time ago! Orfevre is talented - on Timeform ratings only just behind fellow Japanese Deep Impact (disqualified from third in 2006 Arc) on 131 compared to 134 - but I doubt he will beat Danedream if the German filly is in the same sort of form as 12 months ago, and that one probably deserves to shade favouritism. Orfevre's recent Longchamp win was pleasing, but he will need to step up quite a bit on the bare form to follow up in the Arc. It is a pretty open race, and I also would not put people off looking at outsiders, who have a decent record of getting involved over the years.

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