Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Can Louis scoot to victory?

Olympic gymnast Louis Smith on a scooter

Can the London Olympians translate success on the track to the dancefloor? And why are there no goalkeepers in this year's Strictly Come Dancing? Our ballroom man Alan Dudman is back once again to assess the trading options for the 2012 dancing shindig.

Firstly, may I do my impression of Duncan Bannatyne of Dragons' Den fame? It's ludicrous. There, that's the impression. I am referring to the three week gap between the introduction show and the actual live dancing. Why? Maybe to give us time to swot up on who Colin Salmon is?

The first of the live shows begins on October 5th, and a chance to assess whether or not Louis Smith is a good price in the winner market at 3.953/1. The Olympic gymnast has been supported over the past few days, which has nudged Denise Van Outen out to 5.509/2 - which I think is a backable price.

Van Outen has ruffled a few feathers it's fair to say - totally unintentional. Her previous experience of dancing and the stage would be far greater than that of someone like Johnny Ball. But can the professional Essex ladette present 'Think Of Number' and give you the square root of 943, no she can't. But she can dance.

Top male and female markets:

These are good markets for the layers. The most competitive is the female, as DVO and Kimberley Walsh are trading at 2.608/5 the pair, with Victoria Pendleton at 3.6013/5. There has to be something that gives with this trio, so despite the Olympic love, I am against Pendleton. And if you are a layer, focus on the females.

Top male is Louis Smith at 1.784/5, but the mens division looks weaker and he really only has Nicky Byrne 3.8014/5 to beat. The latter has dancing experience from his pop band days (I can never remember if it is Westlife or Boyzone) - so he would present the best trading option as Smith's price is short for someone who hasn't exactly struck me as Mr Dynamite.

Get that green book early:

Remember the early high scores are not the ones who always progress. And we all know the feeling of peaking too early. In recent seasons Eastender Scott Maslen was a good example, very capable early on with scores in the high 20s and low 30s, but never kicked on. Big improvers can happen, take Pamela Stephenson who was available to back at 75.0074/1 before the dancing. Two years ago she ended up in the final three to achieve the perfect trading book. But as a north American she could never win it (see below).

Miniature breakfast presenter Chris Hollins was a lucky winner of the 2009 series. For some reason his dancing took off with a few shows remaining. This result went against the trend of judges being more critical of dances as the series progresses. I have never quite recovered from that Hollins blow.

To spot the improvers, look for the ones who are very clean and precise, as getting the accuracy is important to the whole thing clicking later.

Against the cheeky funsters:

My pet hate. The 'comic' dancer. We had Russell Grant last year, we've had Ann Widdecombe, and we said goodbye to John Sergeant (eventually). Yes they are fun but they do not win, and there comes a point when the joke is over. However, as a 'get in and out bet' there is an opportunity to nick a couple of quid.

The 2012 funsters are Johnny Ball 150.0149/1 and Lisa Riley 160.0159/1, with Riley doing cheeky very well. Ball will be the old codger who cannot dance, whilst I am sure the Emmerdale actress will be doing it for the 'larger sized' women. It might be fun for a bit, but not for that long.

Be with the British:

No American or European has lifted the glitterball since Strictly's inception in 2003. Therefore Jerry Hall has absolutely no chance on all known form (see professional dancers). There have been no winners aged 40 plus, and the Texan won't be garnering that many prime-time votes from the BBC audience. Also Martina Hingis went out very early in 2009, and Michelle Williams from Destiny's Child didn't get very far either.

Professional dancers:

Bold and daring choreography often gets rewarded. Pasha was most impressive as a debutant last year with Chelsee. Whilst Artem was sensational with Kara in 2010 (they won it with some breathtaking routines). Anton the Berk is partnered with Jerry Hall - and du Berk gets very annoying by week two so their chances are diminishing even further. Whilst the twerp Vincent Simone should never be backed. Kimberley Walsh should have some good chemistry with Pash.

The dance-off:

Perhaps most crucially, the return of the dance-off is one of the biggest plus points for punters. Since the Beeb decided to ditch this in favour of the public vote, some results were nothing short of disastrous. However, for the 2012 shows, the two celebs with the lowest scores will have to perform their routines again with the judges now deciding. So much easier, as in the past some of the better dancers have left too early.

Lay the goalkeepers:

Shot-stoppers have a dreadful record in Strictly. Recently Peter Shilton and Peter Schmeichel both failed miserably, as did Alan Rough in the seventies and Jean Marie-Pfaff in the Belgium version. OK I made up the last two, but I have wanted to shoe-horn a goalkeeping gag for ages now.