четверг, 27 сентября 2012 г.

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Basseterre can bounce back

Kieren Fallon seems to get the best out of Basseterre
The booking of Kieren Fallon on Basseterre makes all the difference for Rory Delargy who is backing Charlie Hills' colt at Newmarket today
I've long been a fan of Charlie Hills' Basseterre, the Cape Cross-colt impressing with his scope when winning an ordinary polytrack maiden back in January.
His progress hasn't always been smooth since, but he gelled well with Kieren Fallon when winning at Haydock in May, and was rather unlucky at Ayr next time. His absence until reappearing at Sandown a couple of weeks ago suggested he'd had a minor problem, and he ran below his best behind Gaul Wood at the Esher venue.
Aside from the fact that the run may have been needed, he was at a disadvantage in being held up in a race which suited those to race prominently, and it's worth bearing in mind his earlier promise rather than focusing on that display. Michael Hills makes way for the mercurial Fallon again today when he runs in the 16:50 at Newmarket, and the horse seems better suited to the former champion's aggressive style than Hills' more sympathetic approach.
I'm convinced this horse is much better than his current handicap mark, and he looks today's best bet.
In his betting.betfair.com colum, Ryan Moore is keen on the chances of Havana Gold who he describes as winning "a shade comfortably" at Haydock last time.
I disagree, and thought runner-up Al Waab would have won in another couple of strides. I admit that Havana Gold is the one to beat in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes (15:40), but his margin of superiority doesn't justify his cramped odds. At a much bigger price, I'd be inclined to chance Canary Row, who was an excellent second to the mighty Dawn Approach in a conditions race at Naas in May, and seemed to need the run on return from a break at Leopardstown recently.
He's in the care of a much underrated trainer in Patrick Prendergast, and is bred to excel when tackling 7f+, so looks open to plenty of improvement on the form he's shown to date. Back him win and place.
Recommended Bets
Back Basseterre @ 5.04/1 in the 16:50 Newmarket (NAP)
Back Canary Row (win & place) in the 15:40 Newmarket @ 17.016/1 & 3.185/40 (NB)

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