Tour Championship Tips: The best speciality bets for East Lake

Can Phil master the short stick at East Lake?
The cream of the PGA Tour crop head to East Lake for the Tour Championship and there's no shortage of betting options. Paul Krishnamurty has the pick of the side bets.
Back to lays
Back Luke Donald 4u @ 21.020/1
Back Keegan Bradley 2u @ 46.045/1
Place order to lay both players 15u @ 4.03/1
Given a field comprising the top-30 on the FedEx Cup list, chasing the richest prize of the season, one might assume the Tour Championship is an ultra-competitive event. That may not, however, be the case. With so much of the points list determined over the past few weeks, several of the 30 owe their place to one or two good play-off results. Equally there are players who owe their place to big wins earlier in the year, but who have since lost their form completely - see Ryder Cup rejects Hunter Mahan and Rickie Fowler. There's also the nature of East Lake, a tough layout with lightning-fast Bermuda greens, which takes some knowing. Inexperience could be a significant disadvantage to course debutants, including Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Louis Oosthuizen.
It strikes me that roughly half this line-up can be confidently ignored and if so, there must be some trading value amongst the rest. Luke Donald in particular must have a great chance of trading shorter than a starting price of 21.020/1, on the basis of three top-five finishes from his last four visits to East Lake. He's slipped down the pecking order due to a moderate FedEx Cup but this layout is much more suitable than recent venues and he is bound to have spent last week's break fine-tuning his game ahead of this bonanza and the Ryder Cup.
Keegan Bradley is another who has drifted too far in markets since being all the rage just a few weeks back, after winning the WGC-Bridgestone. That victory came at Firestone, another long par-70 with fast greens, and 11th place last year was a respectable debut, promising more to come with greater course experience.
My trading plan is to stake six units on Donald and Bradley, then place an order to lay 15 units should either shorten to 4.03/1 in-running, with a view towards banking a minimum nine units profit if either hits the lay target.
Tournament Matchbets
Back Phil Mickelson to beat Dustin Johnson 6u @ 1.84/5
Dustin Johnson arrived before the last two East Lake renewals right in the thick of the FedEx Cup battle, only to badly underperform. The principal explanation is probably those Bermuda greens, on which he has serially struggled in Florida. If those results are any guide he's unlikely to threaten the top-ten. That should be well within range for Mickelson, whose own putting has improved markedly since trying a new grip. Even when he doesn't putt well, Phil tends to go well at East Lake, winning twice amongst four top-fives this century. As Steve Rawlings points out, last year's top-ten came in spite of a dire performance on the greens.
Top-ten finish
5u Jim Furyk @ 2.3211/8
4u Bo Van Pelt @ 2.747/4
3u Ryan Moore @ 3.7511/4
As argued above, this doesn't look the most competitive field, so consistent types that usually thrive in finishing position markets rate even better value than usual. Jim Furyk has probably been the most reliable top-ten bet around over the past 15 years, especially on Bermuda greens, and his record at East Lake is exemplary. Furyk won on his last visit in 2010, has five top-tens this century and nothing worse than 18th.
Bo Van Pelt cuts a very similar profile to Furyk - relentlessly consistent if not a prolific winner - and registered his ninth top-ten of the season last time out. They, of course, all came in much bigger fields than this and last year's ninth, shooting 66/68 over the weekend, bodes extremely well. Finally Ryan Moore also finished ninth on his sole previous East Lake visit and is in good form, registering top-tens in the last two play-offs.