четверг, 13 сентября 2012 г.

Ryan Moore: My views on Thursday at Doncaster

Ryan provides the lowdown on a tough card
Ryan Moore assesses a challenging card on day two of Doncaster's St Leger meeting and gives his views on some of the principal runners...
13:15
This looks a pretty impossible card for punters and a 20-runner nursery is not the easiest starting point, is it? I have ridden a couple of these, Indignant and Summer Isles. Indignant started off by finishing third to Sky Lantern at Goodwood before going on to win at Nottingham. She only beat three home in a York nursery last time and, racing off the same mark, clearly has to improve a good deal from that effort to figure here off top weight. Summer Isles actually didn't even beat one home on her nursery debut at Wolverhampton last time but that clearly wasn't her true running and if she came back to the form of her Newmarket fourth to Newfangled, when I rode her and quite liked her, she would have a chance off a mark of 71. The step back up to 6f after racing over 5f on sharp tracks may help too. But this looks an absolute minefield of a race, though I suppose Luca's Nargys - though his draw in one would bother me as I like to be mid to stands side at Doncaster - and the likes of Tussie Mussie, who carries a 6lb penalty for a clear-cut Musselburgh win last week, will be among the market leaders.
13:50
This 18-runner Group 3 race looks equally tricky, but Sentaril could prove the answer. William's horses continue in great form but this one was actually a big disappointment over 6f in a Group 3 at York last time. Perhaps something wasn't quite right there as this is her first start since that July run and I see that she still holds a Group 1 entry in the Sun Chariot later this month. On her earlier slightly unlucky second to Ishvana in the Jersey - form that is working out well with the third (Aljamaheer), fourth (Lethal Force) and fifth (Producer) all running well or winning in Group company since - she looks the one to beat here back over 7f and she is only lightly-raced too. The draw, 18 of 18, is a question mark but she appeals most. The rest all look much of a muchness, though Gamilati has claims if you are willing to forgive her comeback run at Goodwood and Regal Realm would have a shout if coming back to the form of her Glorious Goodwood win for me. I think this track could suit her.
14:20
There are quite a few in here who are only separated by about 5lb-7b on their best form, but I like The Gold Cheongsam. I think Jeremy was going to run her in the Lowther before pulling her out the day before - not sure why, in truth - but she had earlier looked good when giving Califante 9lb in a Newmarket nursery and the runner-up went on to finish a close second in a listed race at Salisbury last time. There are plenty of dangers to choose from, notably Hototo, Morny third Parliament Square (though he has to give Jeremy's filly 18lb but has a similar profile to Reply, who won this race for Aidan last year) and Bath winner Liber.
14:55
Estimate ran well for me when third to Wild Coco over this trip at Goodwood last time, but I just have the feeling that the Queen's Vase winner will be better suited to a greater test of stamina than she may get here. But she is 2lb better off with the winner, hopefully the track will suit and I can tell you that she has been going pretty well at home since her last run. But clearly the horse that beat her by 3 lengths at Goodwood, Wild Coco, is the obvious favourite here. But Newbury winner Ambivolent is improving, and a couple of the others would have an outside chance of coming back to their best, notably Kailani.
15:30
I don't have much of an opinion in this maiden, so I will be brief. There are a couple of Derby entries amongst the unraced horses and all of the once-raced maidens can be expected to step up a good deal from their debuts. I imagine there will be plenty of betting focus on Space Ship, who started favourite when shaping promisingly at Sandown at the end of last month. And the step up to 1m looks sure to suit this Galileo colt, who holds an entry in the Racing Post Trophy.
16:05
Everyone knows how much I love a good 22-runner sprint handicap - and unfortunately I don't have many pearls of wisdom to offer this time either. I have ridden Piazza San Pietro, Sohraab and Oneladyowner in the past and I suppose Sohraab looks the likeliest of that trio, mainly because of his greater consistency. But it really does look ridiculously difficult to pinpoint the winner. Ron Harris tops and tails the weight and his progressive, bang in form Prodigality has a touch of class and his Ertikaan showed a lot more last time. Perhaps Ron has the answer to this riddle. Ask him, because I don't. But I would probably like to ride his Prodigality here.
16:35
This looks more like it. Only six runners and you can get a far better handle on the race, even if there is no obvious pace and this promises to be a very tactical race. Black Spirit has been running well in good class handicaps this season and has run well when fresh in the past, so his absence since June doesn't overly worry me; Trade Storm has been raised 6lb from his York win and Specific Gravity has been upped 9lb for his Newmarket victory; Resurge comes here after a mid-season break after disappointing at Newmarket in June; and Sandagiyr has to prove he can translate his Meydan form to the UK. If he does, he has prospects off 105. But the horse I quite like in here is Spanish Duke. He is back on the same mark as when winning at Epsom last season (after which he was raised a very harsh 10lb), he ran well for me over 1m4f at that track in June and finished a good fourth to Danadana over this trip at York last time. With his stable in better form now, on a fair mark and likely to be suited by track and trip - in fact, I think he finished third to me on Royal Destination off a 2lb higher mark in this race two seasons ago - I can see him going close, even if he is not the most straightforward.
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