Ryan Moore: My views on Friday at Doncaster

Ryan riding at Doncaster earlier this year
Ryan Moore assesses the runners in seven races on day three of Doncaster's St Leger meeting...
13:15
I rode Sir Prancealot when he finished second to Reckless Abandon in the Papin and he looks to have run to a similar level of form behind the same horse in the Morny. It helps that he doesn't have that colt to contend with today and he looks the one to beat on form. Although he has finished off his races over 6f strongly on occasion, I don't think the step down to the minimum trip should be too much of an inconvenience as he has a good cruising speed, and this is a step down in class. Bungleinthejungle was well below par over 6f in soft ground in Ireland last time but 5f on better ground saw him to maximum advantage when he just got the better of Morawij in the Molecomb. Ceiling Kitty got balloted out of the Nunthorpe and she looked a progressive sort when beating Hoyam in the Queen Mary last time. A lot of these horses' form ties in closely with each other, as Hoyam beat Fire Eyes at York last time. It is possible that the runner-up could reverse that form here though, as he showed a smart turn of foot to take it up 1f out there before getting reeled in late. It could be that they hold on to him for longer this time, or maybe it was just the easier ground that wasn't ideal there. And you obviously can't rule out Sound Of Guns either; she ran a good race when second to me on Rosdhu Queen in a listed race at Newbury. This is a step up in class but the winner went on to win the Lowther next time and the third has since won in listed company.
13:50
I don't think that anyone who saw Sir Graham Wade overcome all sorts of trouble in running to win at Haydock on Saturday will be in a rush to oppose him under just a 6lb penalty today, even if this looks a really competitive handicap. He is big and strong, and looks a Group horse in appearance. But he looks sure to be a warm favourite and he did put in a very poor performance at York previously. That said, he will probably win if reproducing that Haydock run but there are in-form, solid rivals against in him here in Number Theory, Caravan Rolls On, No Heretic and Hanoverian Baron. And Tominator, whose chance I was keen on before his Chester win last time, and Blue Bajan are other horses that you certainly can't rule out either. So there is depth to this race outside of the favourite and Martyr is interesting on his comeback run after two years off the track off a mark of 97. I won on him at Newmarket two years ago - I think I actually rode him on his debut as well - but I think that he has his work well and truly cut out returning in such a competitive handicap.
14:20
Front-running tactics certainly didn't work out for Saddler's Rock at York last time. And, with Johnny back on board, I think we can expect to see more patient tactics today. This horse was probably at his most impressive when beating Opinion Poll by 4 lengths in this race last season and he clearly had been in great nick before that York run as well. I have been banging the Colour Vision drum ever since he impressed me greatly in beating me on Red Cadeaux at Kempton in May, and perhaps he wasn't at his best when beaten around 2 lengths by Saddler's Rock at Goodwood last time. Either way, there clearly isn't too much between the Gold Cup winner and John Oxx's horse on their overall form this season - though the 4lb penalty that Colour Vision carries here is a clearly big negative. Masked Marvel clearly would be a leading contender here on his Leger win but you couldn't be at all confident about him after another below par run at Newbury last time. If you are looking for an each way bet, maybe Hurricane Higgins could be the one. He obviously has a lot to find but he is a guaranteed stayer, and he impresses me with the way that he travels and quickens in his races. I don't think he wants to be in front too long though.
14:55
Any number of these horses have any amount of improvement in them, but on all known evidence so far, Certify is the one to beat. She is a beautiful mover, and really gets over the ground. A clear-cut 3 length winner from the decent Pearl Sea on her Newmarket debut, the form of her Sweet Solera length defeat of the Moyglare winner Sky Lantern is obviously the best on offer here at the moment. But then again Ollie Olga is tough and can also boast a recent verdict over Sky Lantern, and I imagine that Certify will be a much shorter price in the betting. It wouldn't surprise me if one or two improved enough to trouble that pair - and Marco's Italian acqusition Tuttipaesi, proven over this trip, is something of an unknown - but I think Certify is by far the most likely winner.
15:30
Not a great deal to choose between the six in here on what they have shown so far. I rode Ninjago to finish third over this trip at Newbury last time and, strictly on form, that maybe makes him the one to beat. But John Gosden's Ashdan was very impressive on his debut, beating a dual subsequent winner. He holds plenty of big race entries, and I imagine he is the one that the market will favour. And rightly so in my opinion, because I was really taken with him at Newmarket. But we have other once-raced maiden winners in here, and No Jet Lag bolted in at Redcar last time, so it is an interesting contest. But Ashdan for me.
16:05
I thought Duke Of Firenze would just about win at Newmarket last time. Unfortunately he was a nose behind Fulbright at the line but the winner has clearly gone on to advertise the merit of that run - as has the third - and off a 4lb higher mark here I would anticipate another big run from Duke Of Firenze, who is progressive and is the most unexposed horse in the field alongside an unknown quantity in Rassam. I know a few of these in here and respect the chances of the likes of Mac's Power and Cape Classic but there is only one horse I would like to be riding in this.
16:35
The boss has Keene Dancer in here, in what looks a typically tight classified stakes race. In fact, it looks pretty impossible - seven are rated 85 in this 0-85 contest. I don't know what happened to her at Goodwood last time but she had earlier won well in heavy ground at Windsor and looked a fast-progressing filly there. I think she is up to winning a race like this but she is unproven over the trip and any rain would really help her chances, so those are a couple of potential negatives too, in addition to the poor run last time.
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