Who are you backing in the Golden Rose at Rosehill?
Head of Timeform Australia Gary Crispe tipped up big-race winner Southern Speed last week and now turns his attention to the Golden Rose at Rosehill on Saturday.
Outstanding prospect Nechita will stand alone atop an elite group of horses, excluding juveniles, to capture their first Group 1 success at just their third career start when she lines up in the Golden Rose over 1400m at Rosehill on Saturday.
In the last 25 years no 3-y-o filly has won first time at Group 1 level at their third race start. The now champion sire Redoute's Choice is the only 3-y-o in the same period to have won a Group 1 at his third race start; however he did win a juvenile group one at his second race start taking the 1999 Blue Diamond Stakes.
The John Thompson-trained Nechita has created an enormous impression winning both her starts to date. After sweeping aside the handy Diamond Earth in effortless fashion on debut at Warwick Farm over 1100m she was spelled for three months with bigger prizes in the cross hairs. Following a barrier trial, the filly resumed in the G3 Silver Shadow Stakes over 1200m at Warwick Farm easily accounting for a quality line up of fillies with previous stakes grade form including Meidung, Dear Demi and Ichihara. The aforementioned pair then confirmed the merit of that form by running the quinella in the G2 Furious Stakes last Saturday.
Under Christian Reith, Nechita sat midfield before making a wide run approaching the turn then raced clear to win as she liked with plenty seemingly in reserve. The run earned Nechita a Timeform rating of 113+, making her one of the highest rated winners of the Silver Shadow in recent times. Just five fillies have rated higher than Nechita in the last 25 years and all have been subsequent G1 winners. Counted amongst them are Ha Ha, Regimental Gal, Fashions Afield and Samantha Miss.
Nechita has been given plenty of time to recover from the Silver Shadow win and although she steps up to 1400m for the first time, I don't see that as an issue. She is bred to get over ground on the dam side and certainly her racing style indicates she will be even better suited by longer distances. If successful, Nechita will also join outstanding filly and Golden Slipper winner Forensics as the only fillies to have won the G1 feature since its inception in 2003. She will also become the first filly in history to take the G3 Silver Shadows Stakes and Golden Rose double.
Leading trainer Peter Snowden in the most successful trainer in Golden Rose history. He has won three of the nine Golden Rose renewals with Paratroopers (2005), Denman (2009) and Forensics (2008). Snowden also prepared the unlucky Desuetude narrowly beaten behind Duporth in 2008 and third placed Helmet last year. On Saturday he will be represented by promising colts Albrecht and Epaulette.
The likely danger to Nechita is Epaulette (Timeform rated 122), the only horse to have seriously challenged champion unbeaten colt Pierro, pushing him to a half head in the G2 Todman Slipper Trial earlier this year. At his start prior he had scored impressively in the Listed Black Opal Stakes in Canberra. A half-brother to 2011 G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Helmet who finished an unlucky third in the Golden Rose last year, Epaulette appeals as a better behaved colt with potential for further improvement.
Epaulette is second up from a spell today. After a Rosehill barrier trial win, the colt resumed in the G3 Run To The Rose over 1200m and ran a luckless third. Epaulette was trapped wide without cover but was left flat footed when the tempo quickened approaching the turn. The winner Pierro who sat right on the speed was off and gone while it took Epaulette several strides to get into his rhythm. Epaulette was doing is best work late and the run will have benefited him greatly fitness wise. It is interesting to note that between his first and second up runs last preparation Epaulette improved his rating ten pounds. With a Timeform rating of 122, Epaulette is the highest Timeform rated runner in the race. If he finds that level of improvement again and runs close to his master figure, he will indeed make it a tough contest for the promising Nechita.
Up and Coming Stakes winner Albrecht (Timeform rated 108p) on the other hand is a progressive type with plenty to offer. With just three starts under his belt he has made rapid progress in his ratings profile and wearing winkers for the first time was most impressive last time out. Stable rider Kerrin McEvoy has given the best lead to the stable's chances by selecting Albrecht as his mount ahead of the more highly rated Epaulette so don't be surprised if he makes another leap in his rating level. If successful, Albrecht would become the third horse to complete the Up and Coming Stakes and Golden Rose double since 2003.
Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse has is yet to win a Golden Rose but she came close in 2010 with talented colt Squamosa just beaten by Toorak Toff and in 2008 with Kingda Ka who finished third to Forensics. On Saturday she will be represented by the lightly raced Kabayan who is second up from a spell.
Timeform rated 118, Kabayan has raced just four times for a debut win at Wyong but has finished runner-up at each of his other three starts the most recent when resuming in the G3 McNeil Stakes at Caulfield over 1100m beaten a head by Lady of Harrods. Kabayan's best rating effort came at his start prior when just run down by the promising Queensland galloper Sizzling in the G1 T J Smith Stakes over 1600m at Eagle Farm. Waterhouse gave Kabayan a barrier trial before sending him to Melbourne for the McNeil in a move designed to avoid a clash with Pierro who contested the Run To The Rose the same day. The strategy almost paid off with lack of experience at Caulfield the main reason for the colt's narrow defeat rating several pounds below his peak. Although destined for longer races this campaign, Kabayan will be much fitter for this afternoon's assignment. He is capable of further improvement and a return to his master Timeform rating would see son of Haradasun take a hand in the finish.
Run To The Rose runner up behind Pierro is the Anthony Cummings-trained Your Song. Timeform rated 112p off that effort he looms as another lightly raced colt with claims. A two time winner from only four race starts, Your Song took his Timeform rating to a new level in the Run To The Rose, however the effort may have been flattered by the fact he never went around a horse in the home straight, getting right up along the fence to snatch second place as the field got off the rail with Epaulette a close third. Cummings will be looking for Your Song to atone for the unlucky defeat of Smart Missile behind Manawanui in last year's Golden Rose.
A most interesting Golden Rose awaits and more importantly if past trends are a guide it will be a race we constantly refer to over the course of the spring as it has produced several subsequent big race winners. Certainly in the "history stakes" there is a lot on the line for Nechita.
Recommendation
Back Nechita @ 2.89/5 in the Golden Rose
Visit timeform.com to get FREE cards and ratings for Saturday's meetings at Rosehill and Moonee Valley.
Head of Timeform Australia Gary Crispe tipped up big-race winner Southern Speed last week and now turns his attention to the Golden Rose at Rosehill on Saturday.
Outstanding prospect Nechita will stand alone atop an elite group of horses, excluding juveniles, to capture their first Group 1 success at just their third career start when she lines up in the Golden Rose over 1400m at Rosehill on Saturday.
In the last 25 years no 3-y-o filly has won first time at Group 1 level at their third race start. The now champion sire Redoute's Choice is the only 3-y-o in the same period to have won a Group 1 at his third race start; however he did win a juvenile group one at his second race start taking the 1999 Blue Diamond Stakes.
The John Thompson-trained Nechita has created an enormous impression winning both her starts to date. After sweeping aside the handy Diamond Earth in effortless fashion on debut at Warwick Farm over 1100m she was spelled for three months with bigger prizes in the cross hairs. Following a barrier trial, the filly resumed in the G3 Silver Shadow Stakes over 1200m at Warwick Farm easily accounting for a quality line up of fillies with previous stakes grade form including Meidung, Dear Demi and Ichihara. The aforementioned pair then confirmed the merit of that form by running the quinella in the G2 Furious Stakes last Saturday.
Under Christian Reith, Nechita sat midfield before making a wide run approaching the turn then raced clear to win as she liked with plenty seemingly in reserve. The run earned Nechita a Timeform rating of 113+, making her one of the highest rated winners of the Silver Shadow in recent times. Just five fillies have rated higher than Nechita in the last 25 years and all have been subsequent G1 winners. Counted amongst them are Ha Ha, Regimental Gal, Fashions Afield and Samantha Miss.
Nechita has been given plenty of time to recover from the Silver Shadow win and although she steps up to 1400m for the first time, I don't see that as an issue. She is bred to get over ground on the dam side and certainly her racing style indicates she will be even better suited by longer distances. If successful, Nechita will also join outstanding filly and Golden Slipper winner Forensics as the only fillies to have won the G1 feature since its inception in 2003. She will also become the first filly in history to take the G3 Silver Shadows Stakes and Golden Rose double.
Leading trainer Peter Snowden in the most successful trainer in Golden Rose history. He has won three of the nine Golden Rose renewals with Paratroopers (2005), Denman (2009) and Forensics (2008). Snowden also prepared the unlucky Desuetude narrowly beaten behind Duporth in 2008 and third placed Helmet last year. On Saturday he will be represented by promising colts Albrecht and Epaulette.
The likely danger to Nechita is Epaulette (Timeform rated 122), the only horse to have seriously challenged champion unbeaten colt Pierro, pushing him to a half head in the G2 Todman Slipper Trial earlier this year. At his start prior he had scored impressively in the Listed Black Opal Stakes in Canberra. A half-brother to 2011 G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Helmet who finished an unlucky third in the Golden Rose last year, Epaulette appeals as a better behaved colt with potential for further improvement.
Epaulette is second up from a spell today. After a Rosehill barrier trial win, the colt resumed in the G3 Run To The Rose over 1200m and ran a luckless third. Epaulette was trapped wide without cover but was left flat footed when the tempo quickened approaching the turn. The winner Pierro who sat right on the speed was off and gone while it took Epaulette several strides to get into his rhythm. Epaulette was doing is best work late and the run will have benefited him greatly fitness wise. It is interesting to note that between his first and second up runs last preparation Epaulette improved his rating ten pounds. With a Timeform rating of 122, Epaulette is the highest Timeform rated runner in the race. If he finds that level of improvement again and runs close to his master figure, he will indeed make it a tough contest for the promising Nechita.
Up and Coming Stakes winner Albrecht (Timeform rated 108p) on the other hand is a progressive type with plenty to offer. With just three starts under his belt he has made rapid progress in his ratings profile and wearing winkers for the first time was most impressive last time out. Stable rider Kerrin McEvoy has given the best lead to the stable's chances by selecting Albrecht as his mount ahead of the more highly rated Epaulette so don't be surprised if he makes another leap in his rating level. If successful, Albrecht would become the third horse to complete the Up and Coming Stakes and Golden Rose double since 2003.
Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse has is yet to win a Golden Rose but she came close in 2010 with talented colt Squamosa just beaten by Toorak Toff and in 2008 with Kingda Ka who finished third to Forensics. On Saturday she will be represented by the lightly raced Kabayan who is second up from a spell.
Timeform rated 118, Kabayan has raced just four times for a debut win at Wyong but has finished runner-up at each of his other three starts the most recent when resuming in the G3 McNeil Stakes at Caulfield over 1100m beaten a head by Lady of Harrods. Kabayan's best rating effort came at his start prior when just run down by the promising Queensland galloper Sizzling in the G1 T J Smith Stakes over 1600m at Eagle Farm. Waterhouse gave Kabayan a barrier trial before sending him to Melbourne for the McNeil in a move designed to avoid a clash with Pierro who contested the Run To The Rose the same day. The strategy almost paid off with lack of experience at Caulfield the main reason for the colt's narrow defeat rating several pounds below his peak. Although destined for longer races this campaign, Kabayan will be much fitter for this afternoon's assignment. He is capable of further improvement and a return to his master Timeform rating would see son of Haradasun take a hand in the finish.
Run To The Rose runner up behind Pierro is the Anthony Cummings-trained Your Song. Timeform rated 112p off that effort he looms as another lightly raced colt with claims. A two time winner from only four race starts, Your Song took his Timeform rating to a new level in the Run To The Rose, however the effort may have been flattered by the fact he never went around a horse in the home straight, getting right up along the fence to snatch second place as the field got off the rail with Epaulette a close third. Cummings will be looking for Your Song to atone for the unlucky defeat of Smart Missile behind Manawanui in last year's Golden Rose.
A most interesting Golden Rose awaits and more importantly if past trends are a guide it will be a race we constantly refer to over the course of the spring as it has produced several subsequent big race winners. Certainly in the "history stakes" there is a lot on the line for Nechita.
Recommendation
Back Nechita @ 2.89/5 in the Golden Rose
Visit timeform.com to get FREE cards and ratings for Saturday's meetings at Rosehill and Moonee Valley.
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