The Big Match Tactical View: Southampton v Manchester United

Can Ronald Koeman get the better of old foe Louis van Gaal?

The weekend's Premier League action finishes with Manchester United's long trip down to Southampton on Monday evening. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, while Alan Thompson assesses the odds...

Southampton v Manchester United
Monday 8:00, Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Southampton 2.8615/8, The Draw 3.55/2, Manchester United 2.6813/8

There have been various Dutch managers in the history of the Premier League - Ruud Gullit, Martin Jol, Rene Meulensteen - but never before have two have faced one another. Ronald Koeman and Louis van Gaal are both newcomers to English football, and while the former settled more quickly than the latter, both found themselves in the top four coming into this Premier League weekend.

The two coaches have history, too. They worked together at Barcelona, where Koeman was Van Gaal's assistant, before linking up at Ajax in 2004, in a different arrangement: Koeman was manager, Van Gaal director of football. 

Soon, Koeman became frustrated with Van Gaal's constant interference in training and tactical matters, and was highly upset at the sale of Zlatan Ibrahimovic on transfer deadline day.

Eventually, Koeman issued an ultimatum to the board and Van Gaal departed, although Koeman only lasted a few months longer. Neither came out of this battle well, and there is certainly bad blood between them. Who would have thought, two Dutchman - supposedly working on the same side - having a dramatic falling-out?

"I don't have to describe my relationship with the trainer of the opponent," Van Gaal said this week, although later he added that Koeman is "a very good coach."

More importantly, this was third versus fourth coming into the weekend, with the gap between the sides narrowing after Southampton's poor recent results, and United's good form. Southampton have a bad record against Champions League challengers - they've only lost to Liverpool, Tottenham, Manchester City and Arsenal this season - while United have won only one game on the road. This is a big test for both.

Both teams have injury worries coming into the game. While Van Gaal has become accustomed to this, and has handed starts to no fewer than 26 players, the most in the league this season, Koeman has only started 15 different players so far.

Southampton lost Toby Alderweireld and Jack Cork to injury in the 1-0 defeat to Arsenal on Wednesday, with Morgan Schneiderlin still a big doubt, plus James Ward-Prowse and Jay Rodriguez still unavailable. Southampton don't have a particularly big squad, and this period, with the first midweek Premier League round of the campaign, was always likely to trouble them.

Koeman shifted Alderweireld into midfield against both Manchester City and Arsenal when robbed of midfielders, but if he's unavailable there's a real problem in the centre. Maya Yoshida would come into defence, but Koeman might have to change his system slightly, switching to a system featuring only two midfielders - Victor Wanyama and Steven Davis - with Shane Long, Sadio Mane and Duan Tadic supporting Graziano Pelle.

In truth, this system didn't work when Koeman tried it at Aston Villa a fortnight ago, but there might be little other option.

Van Gaal is unlikely to make sweeping changes to his starting XI, which could mean Antonio Valencia and Ashley Young continuing as an unlikely full-back duo after their good showing against Stoke. With Tyler Blackett and Paddy McNair available, however, and the possibility to Marcos Rojo playing on the left, it surely makes sense to strengthen the backline with a natural defender in place of Young.

Further forward, Wayne Rooney should return after injury. You'd expect him to take the place of young James Wilson, with Radamel Falcao also in contention. Van Gaal will want pacey forward to exploit Southampton's high line, however, which means another start for young James Wilson isn't out of the question.

Angel Di Maria could return after injury, although still seems doubtful and risking him at this stage of the season, with so many upcoming games, would be unwise. Michael Carrick, Marouane Fellaini, Ander Herrera and Juan Mata is the likely midfield quartet.

That should mean United command the centre of the pitch against a Southampton team probably using only two central midfielders. However, Koeman's team have pressed intelligently as a unit this season, and the ball-winning strength of Wanyama was obvious against Arsenal last time out. 

Fellaini could be an interesting player to keep an eye on. As well as the type of player likely to be flustered by Southampton's pressing, and lash out in retaliation, he's also a possible goalscorer. He's specialised at shuttling forward down the right to meet deep left-wing crosses - the method that resulted in the opener against Arsenal (an own goal) and Stoke (through Fellaini himself) and if up against Yoshida, he'll fancy his chances.

United's makeshift full-backs will be in for a difficult test, but they might be relieved if Tadic is fielded centrally, rather than from the flank. Alternatively, Long could become a second striker with Tadic playing from the flank, but it's tough to forecast any bookings without knowing Tadic's precise role.

Overall, I worry that Southampton have too many injuries to cope here, and that could force Koeman to play an unsuitable system. I'll back Manchester United at 2.6813/8.

Recommended Bet
Back Manchester United at 2.6813/8

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

This is the final leg of a tough three game fixture list that has tested Southampton’s true staying power among the Premier League elite, and for me they have been found wanting. Losing consecutive games without troubling the score keeper against Manchester City and then Arsenal, where to be fair they did go very close to stealing a point. I mentioned in this column last week, I think the Saints are where they are due to a favourable fixture list and now that they are coming up against the better sides they are going to struggle.

United have now managed to get themselves into fourth place (before this weekend’s games) with just one defeat (at Manchester City) in their last 11 starts and if they can get their fifth win in a row here, that will see them move into third place regardless of other results. While Angel Di Maria will miss the trip to St Mary’s, it looks like Louis Van Gaal will have Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Persie and Radamel Falcao all available for selection for the first time since September.

The Red Devils have only registered one away win (Arsenal 1-2) so far this season and their only clean sheet was from a goalless draw at Turf Moor in August. However, United do have a good recent record against Southampton, the Saints have only won one of their last 12 meetings (1-0 Aug 2003). I think United will inflict Southampton’s third consecutive defeat and I will be backing them to do just that at 2.68 in the Match Odds market.