вторник, 16 декабря 2014 г.

Five Betting Pointers: Liverpool in deep trouble, Hull in freefall and Premier League discipline goes downhill

Brendan Rodgers' side are in real trouble

After another weekend of packed Premier League action, Luke Moore analyses the betting angles for the next few weeks...

Liverpool are bang in trouble and well worth laying midweek

The symmetry of the result against Manchester United at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon won't have been lost on more considered Liverpool supporters, and, if they weren't before, the Anfield outfit and Brendan Rodgers are now in real trouble.

That the 3-0 was the polar opposite to what went on in March, where a Steven Gerrard-inspired side took United to school and could and should have had more goals, will hurt the Liverpool faithful and their indignation about how this season has gone so wrong is justified, if possibly a bit knee-jerk. Rodgers knows the game he's in however, and a big week where they face Bournemouth away in the Capital One Cup, followed by a league game against Arsenal could well be the one which decides his future.

The way the Reds are playing at the moment, I wouldn't trust them to get a result against Eddie Howe's impressive Bournemouth outfit, and 2.0811/10 on the away win looks like solid lay material. 

How high can Manchester United go this season?

Commentators and pundits can talk until they're purple in the face about how poor Manchester United are playing, how bad their passing is in midfield, how threadbare their defence looks etc, but the simple fact of the matter is that Louis van Gaal's charges have now won six games in a row.

At first glance the title race still looks nailed on to be between Chelsea (1.548/15) and Manchester City (3.8514/5), but there is more to this than meets the eye - United have four of their most important players out injured, including Angel Di Maria, Luke Shaw and Danny Blind. Their return, all at the end of this month, will boost them even further and improve them in all areas of the pitch.

What's more, United are in the enviable position of being a club that are used to playing two/three games a week yet they won't have to once Christmas is out of the way, due to a lack of European competition. While City and Chelsea have designs on going deep in the Champions League, United can concentrate fully on the home front. Their fixture list is also very kind to them, with no game against another traditional 'top' side until March.

They currently trade at 14.013/1 for the league title this season. It's unlikely that price will stick around for long.

Hull City are in freefall

Before the season started, we were all praising Steve Bruce for the job he'd done at Hull - achieving promotion, consolidating their Premier League status, signing a cavalcade of exciting players designed to improve the Tigers even further this term.

Well, Hull have just succumbed to their fifth defeat in seven games and now haven't won in the league since they beat Crystal Palace at the beginning of October. And the concerning thing for Bruce and his side is that some of the other teams around them are showing something - Sunderland are tough to beat and have lost the fewest amount of games in the bottom half, QPR have won two of their last three and are a decent side at home, Burnley have only lost one of their last six and Palace one of their last five.

All this spells trouble for the Tigers, and 2.9215/8 is a pretty generous price on them suffering the drop, judging them on the way they're playing currently.

Last gasp Spurs are good value for goals

Another week and another 2-1 scoreline for Tottenham Hotspur. A scarcely believable six of their last eight games in all competitions have ended 2-1/1-2, which means that they're currently a good bet on the Over 2.5 Goals market. 

With Burnley visiting White Hart Lane next Saturday, it's probably worth taking the 1.845/6 available on the game to go Overs now - Burnley can't defend away from home, Spurs can't defend full stop, and Mauricio Pochettino's men have several players that can pull a goal out of nowhere, thus ensuring drama.

If you're feeling a little bit braver, you can currently back a seventh 2-1/1-2 scoreline at 6.05/1 and 6.611/2 respectively, with those prices only likely to improve between now and next weekend.

Card-happy referees are making the bookings markets worthy of attention

According to Opta, this season is currently averaging the highest amount of bookings per game in Premier League history. So far, referees in the top flight have shown an average of 3.85 yellow cards per game, beating the previous highest rate of 3.69 in the 1998-99 season.

To that end, it may be worth turning your attention to the Bookings Odds market that's available on Premier League games. With options to back 25pts and Under, 30-40pts and 45pts and Over (10pts for a yellow card and 25pts for a red), it should be possible to snap up some decent profit knowing that match officials are more likely to pull out their notebook throughout the festive season when the weather and therefore the conditions are less than favourable.

The more those tackles fly in on greasy surfaces, the more they're likely to be mistimed and the more a referee is likely to reach for his pocket.

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