ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Federer to put paid to Murray's semi final hopes

Sean expects Federer to get the better of Murray tonight

Andy Murray needs a straight sets win over Roger Federer to qualify for the semi-finals in London and Sean Calvert doesn't like his chances of doing so in the 8pm match at the o2 tonight...

Milos Raonic became the first man to withdraw from the 2014 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals when a torn quad muscle ended his participation at the o2.

Seemingly without a trace of irony, Raonic said: "You, the fans, deserve a great show & I wouldn't step out if I couldn't."

The Canadian obviously hasn't seen a video of his match with Andy Murray yet if he believes that, but at least it makes the qualification scenario from the group a little clearer now that Raonic is out.

David Ferrer, who was also meant to be injured, stepped in to replace Raonic against Kei Nishikori and despite pulling out of the Indian Champions League tennis citing injury the Spaniard handed Federer a pass to the last four.

Ferrer's opening set win over Nishikori meant that Federer was through to the semi-finals, but the rest of the match didn't go to plan as far as Murray is concerned.

The qualification scenario in Group B is now a simple enough one ahead of tonight's Murray vs Roger Federer clash at 8pm UK time.

To qualify, Murray has to beat Federer in straight sets, which is a 5.59/2 chance, and should that occur he would top the group (Federer would qualify second) and avoid Novak Djokovic, so the motivation is there - or should be.

Federer and Murray are meeting for the 23rd time at main level and although the career series is tied at 11-11 at the moment their matches have rarely been close, with either one or the other generally winning comfortably.

Fed's 11 wins over Murray have all come by at least a four game margin, which makes today's 2.111/10 about the minus 3.5 game handicap on Federer a better bet than the straight 1.4740/85.

Indoors, Murray hasn't beaten Federer since back in 2008 and on the form - or lack of it - that we've seen from him so far this week it's very hard to make much of a case for the Scot tonight.

His record of 2-9 against top-five ranked players in 2014 doesn't inspire confidence, with those two wins coming against Ferrer, and he hasn't beaten either Federer, Djokovic or Rafa Nadal since Wimbledon 2013.

Federer has beaten Djokovic three times this season and Murray three times here at the o2, so the form is there and the slow conditions shouldn't hamper him too much.

It's never been quick here and he's always beaten the Brit on this surface and that was back when Murray was in better form than he is now, with Murray's two matches here showing no real signs that he'll be able to deal with Federer.

Federer must win this match to keep his hopes of ending the year as the number one ranked player in the world alive and although he's already qualified for the semis he won't want to lose and have to face Djokovic in the last four.

Either a two set or three set win for Federer would see him and Nishikori through to the last four, while a three set win for Murray would also see the same outcome occur.

Federer won't be taking any chances here and Murray could well fade if he loses the opener, making the minus 3.5 on Federer a good odds-against choice.

Recommended Bet
Back Federer -3.5 games to beat Murray at 2.111/10