четверг, 9 октября 2014 г.

Premier League Betting: Reassessing the relegation picture seven games in

Harry Redknapp's QPR are hopeless away from home

With just seven games gone in the Premier League it's evident to Andy Brassell that some teams are stuggling more than others as they bid to avoid the drop. Here, our man gives the lowdown on the main protagonists in the Relegation market...

The October international break is a logical and opportune point to breathe in, reflect, and reassess after a haring start to the Premier League season. If the presence of Chelsea and Manchester City is a surprise to nobody, the picture at the bottom of the table takes a little bit more deciphering.

Talking about the bottom three or even the bottom six seems a little bit restrictive when we're only seven games in - and it contains the odd anomaly, such as Everton in 17th place - so let's take the whole bottom half of the table as our starting point, from 11th down.

There is minimal range in this selection too, with 11th-placed Hull City on nine points, five ahead of rock-bottom Queens Park Rangers. It's exactly the same gap as already exists between Chelsea and City at the top.

One team for who little has changed is promoted Burnley, unsurprisingly. They are currently favourites in the Relegation market at 1.392/5, a price that has fluctuated little from the summer. You can see why.

Admirably as Saturday's comeback at Leicester was, Ross Wallace's superb late equaliser was only their third goal of a seven-game season so far that has yet to yield a win. It is the lack of ability to create, let alone take chances that will probably do for them in time. Michael Kightly's first-half opener against the Foxes was the Clarets' first goal since Scott Arfield's rocket against Chelsea that got us all aflutter back in August.

Either side of Burnley is where it starts to get interesting. QPR are bottom, and that they (remarkably) trail the only two teams in the division who are yet to win tells you just how haphazard their campaign has been to date.

In short, Harry Redknapp's side are much weaker than some of the resources at their disposal might indicate. What has stayed with punters is that they really did sneak their way into coming straight back up, and signings including Mauricio Isla, Eduardo Vargas and Leroy Fer (the last two not just participants, but scorers at the World Cup) have failed to convince otherwise. Their current price of 1.728/11 to drop is their shortest of the season having traded as high as 3.55/2.

Plainly, it is the market's vote of no confidence in Redknapp himself. Isla, on paper one of the squad's outstanding talents, is now marginalised as a wing-back expected to fit into 4-4-2 after the boss quickly abandoned his three-man defensive experiment. Either way, they don't score, can't defend and are hopeless away from home.

Newcastle, in third bottom, are an even more interesting case. They split the vote; currently 4.57/2 and fifth-most likely to go according to punters, they have traded at a low of 3.814/5 and a high of 16.5n/a.

Even if Saturday's draw at Swansea reminded us that they are not without their merits, they are still winless and Alan Pardew does not look like his going anywhere - or like he knows how to get the best out of signings including Rmy Cabella and Emmanuel Rivire.

Their local rivals Sunderland are longer at 5.59/2 (having been matched at a high of 10.5n/a), as they are clearly harder to break than most of their peers, having conceded just seven and lost only once.

Crystal Palace, matched at one point at as low as 2.35/4 to go down, have drifted to 3.211/5 after Neil Warnock's return but are still third favourites for the drop. Leicester, the third promoted team, are out at 6.25/1 having been as short as 2.3211/8 to be relegated, principally through their performances in a hellish opening. It is worth noting that if you take away their five goals against Manchester United, they have scored just six in six matches.

In the top half, Swansea and Southampton have made mincemeat of the doubters (now out to 16.5n/a and 48.047/1 respectively), but lower down West Bromwich Albion look good value despite recent good results, at 3.55n/a (they were as short as 2.226/5 at one point).

QPR and Burnley look shaky already, but there is certainly money to be made on the third team to go on what is shaping up to be a long and messy battle.

Комментариев нет:

Отправить комментарий