четверг, 9 октября 2014 г.

Premier League Betting Pointers: Angel is off to a flier at Old Trafford

Because he's worth it - 60m man di Maria has been quick into his stride at Old Trafford

We're seven games into the Premier League so what have we learned from this weekend's action? Joe Dyer rounds up the pointers from the last couple of days in England's top-flight...

60m man di Maria shows his worth
Eyebrows were raised when United fired nearly 60m in the direction of Real Madrid for the services of Angel di Maria during Old Trafford's great summer splurge. Though clearly a great player, many wondered whether the  Argentina winger was quite 60m worth of talent. He did not take long to build a case for the defence. In five games the 26-year-old has scored three goals and made another three for his team which is averaging 2.2 goals per game with Di Maria in the ranks. Clearly fourth-placed Manchester United are not the finished article yet - their win was as much down to David de Gea's brilliance at the back as di Maria's threat upfront - and they may not represent Top Four value at 1.635/8 but they look certain to entertain for a while yet as Louis van Gaal shapes the team. Indeed, the next five games should be spectacular - after going to West Brom on October 20, United face Chelsea at Old Trafford then tackle a Manchester derby. They pause for Crystal Palace at home before going to the emirates. Explosive! 

Contrarians should take a chance on Everton
Everton have not made the start many expected, posting just a solitary win in their first seven game to stand a lowly 17th in the Premier League table. It's early days yet of course, but that leaves the Toffees five points off their rivals for a Top Four Finish and they are already 16.015/1 to end the season in the Champions League places. Could now be the time to take that big price, however? After the international fixtures Everton begin a five game run against teams that either finished in the bottom half of last year's Premier League or were promoted from the Championship, with three played at home. Yes, the Toffees have a European campaign to juggle, but punters might be a little premature in writing them off so soon. Only David de Gea's excellence prevented them from taking a point at Old Trafford on Sunday and a string of wins would can help the Merseysiders cut through a stodgy early season table. 

Arsenal must start winning
Seven Premier League games have yielded just a pair of wins for Arsene Wenger's side and it's fair to wonder how much improvement has been made by the perennial top four finishers and whether they can contend with the very best this year. Sunday's 2-0 defeat against Chelsea had a wearying familiarity to it and it's now 12 games since Wenger sent out a team that beat a Jose Mourinho side. True, this wasn't as bad as last year when they were defeated 6-0, but the summer's major Arsenal additions - Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck - offered little. On the plus side the loss marked the first defeat of the Premier League season suggesting there's a bit more steel in the current Arsenal vintage. Even now a nine-point deficit to Chelsea looks too much ground to make up and odds of 24.023/1 are an accurate summation of Arsenal's title chances, though we'd wager those odds may look a touch shorter after the next four games which see the Gunners play Hull (home), Sunderland (away), Burnley (h) and Swansea (a). Nothing less than nine points will do. 

Queens Park Rangers are in real trouble
They may not be favourites for relegation (that dubious honour falls on the shoulders of Burnley, currently) but it is clear from their insipid displays that Harry Redknapp and QPR are in dire straits. Joey Barton intimated on the radio on Friday that he felt his side had been unlucky so far this season, but it is hard to have sympathy with that view - 15 goals conceded and just four scored in seven games is woeful and with Redknapp already looking for excuses in today's back pages, the future doesn't look bright for the west Londoners. The manager surely must bear the responsibility here; the huge turnover of players (56 players have come and gone at the club since Redknapp took over in November 2012), the money spent and the backing of a wealthy owner - yet Rangers still look a side that will struggle badly to stay up this season. With Newcastle seemingly still working for their manager and Burnley finally finding their scoring boots, the value might be on QPR to finish rock bottom at 4.1n/a.

Aguero might offer better value than Costa
Chelsea striker Diego Costa is even money to finish the season as the Premier League's top scorer. With a four goal advantage over his closest pursuers, Leonardo Ulloa, Sergio Aguero and Saido Berahino, and backed up by a world-class supporting cast of attacking midfielders, that price could end up looking big come the end of the season. But there's a lot of season to go and a bad injury could nobble your investment. At a similar price might it not be more prudent to look at Aguero to finish in the league's top four goalscorers? Again, an injury could derail your chances, but Aguero usually puts big numbers on the board despite picking up strains and knocks, like last season when scoring 17 despite missing all of February and much of City's run-in. City's first choice striker boasts the best strike rate in Premier League history, scoring every 114 minutes, and can be relied upon to deliver a big return. 

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