ATP Japan Open 2014 Betting: Big-serving Raonic has conditions in his favour in Tokyo

Milos Raonic has a great record in the Japan Open

The ATP World Tour steps up its Asian swing in week 40, with two ATP 500 events - the China Open and Japan Open and tennis expert Sean Calvert previews the action...

Last week's wagers in Kuala Lumpur proved to be decent trades for the most part, as Julien Benneteau made the final as a 15.014/1 shot and traded as low as 3.55/2, while Pablo Cuevas traded at 16.015/1 from 8079/1.

Simone Bolelli went out early to compatriot Andreas Seppi in a tournament that was eventually won by Andy Murray in Shenzhen after the Brit saved five match points in the final against Tommy Robredo.

There's a $2.5 million prize fund on offer at the China Open in Beijing this week, where Novak Djokovic has a perfect 19-0 record, which is in line with his excellent record in Asia overall.

But it doesn't really appeal to me from a betting perspective, with Djokovic a short priced favourite to land another title and the Japan Open seems to be a much more interesting tournament in terms of betting value.

The ATP Rakuten Japan Open in Tokyo has a $1.37 million prize fund and is played on a fast Decoturf outdoor hard court at the Ariake Colosseum.

There's a roof in operation and it might be needed with bits of rain forecast for this week in Tokyo, but the general rule here is that it's fast conditions and that's why I'm siding with Milos Raonic this week.

Raonic has always played well here in Tokyo, where the fast courts suit his game, and he's made the final here in each of the last two years.

The draw is also a factor in my pick, with Raonic paired with the out of form David Ferrer, and the Canadian's main opposition looks like it will come from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Raonic and Tsonga have had a few tight tussles in the past, but at this point in time I would favour Milos to come out on top in that clash if it happens.

Ferrer, having split with his coach recently, was beaten in straight sets by Viktor Troicki in Shenzhen last week, and in any case it's surely too quick for him in Tokyo these days, although he did win here back in 2007.

The remainder of the bottom half of the draw doesn't look up to winning in this sort of company, with Roberto Bautista-Agut a possible next best, along with Bernard Tomic and Gilles Simon.

The latter pair have both been injured of late though and neither is fully fit right now, which is a big negative for them.

In the top half of the draw it looks tighter, with Stan Wawrinka, Nishikori, Kevin Anderson and Alex Dolgopolov all capable of making the final on their best form.

Nishikori won the title here in 2012, but having a long week in Malaysia may not necessarily be the best preparation for another tilt at the crown he lost a year ago after defeat to Nico Almagro in the quarters.

Overall, Kei's 9-5 record here isn't that inspiring and although he has a fine chance I'm not sure that 4.03/1 represents great value with Wawrinka to beat.

Stan and Kei met in one of the more memorable matches in this year's US Open a few weeks ago and they're set to clash again in the semis here, which should be another tight affair.

Wawrinka has to get past an interesting contender in Dolgopolov first though, with the Ukrainian coming back this week from a knee injury that's kept him out for 11 weeks since Hamburg.

Much to the annoyance of the tournament directors, Wawrinka pulled out of Metz last week after the US Open and Davis Cup had taken their toll on the Swiss player, but I would expect at least a semi final showing from Stan this week.

Anderson withdrew from Kuala Lumpur last week to train in Florida and he could be an interesting outsider this week at around 41.0n/a.

I would expect the speedy conditions here to make him a good favourite to beat Dominic Thiem in round one and he could be the biggest threat to Nishikori in that quarter of the draw.

But it's not generally a tournament that's won by players with a career high ranking of lower than five, with Nishikori (career high of eight so far) being the lowest ranked player to win here since Wes Moodie in 2005.

I think that with the draw and conditions in his favour and having had a comfortable time of it since the US Open, Raonic looks the one at around 5.49/2.

He was another to withdraw from Kuala Lumpur last week, saying that he "wasn't 100% fit to play the event", but after New York and Davis Cup he almost certainly saved himself for the bigger tournament this week.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic at 5.49/2