Against All Odds: Irish title clash to produce goals

The whole of Ireland will be thinking about this match today

The week begins in Ireland for Paul Robinson as he thinks the goals will flow in Dundalk's match with Shamrock Rovers.

Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers
Monday October 13, 19:05 BST
Live on RTE Two

Dundalk are just three matches away from winning their first league title since 1995. Level on points with Cork City, they have a game in hand and a vastly superior goal difference. To make matters even tastier, the pair are set to meet at Oriel Park on the final day of the season.

All of the above means that The Lilywhites will be desperate to take maximum points from their next two outings to all but secure the title prior to the visit of Cork. Despite this evening's fixture coming at home, it is probably the tougher of the two given that the next is at the struggling Bray Wanderers.

I expect Stephen Kenny to send his players out with the intention of scoring as early as possible to settle any nerves, and with 16 netted in their last five in front of their own fans, that should be a distinct possibility. Three of those games finished with over 2.5 goals landing - in fact, over 4.5 backers would have collected on each occasion as well - and with 70 scored and 23 conceded in total this year, their matches are averaging a whopping 3.1 goals each time.

Opponents, Shamrock Rovers, have their own target in mind - albeit a less likely and less glamorous one. A top three place would secure a shot at European football next season and while they currently trail third place, St Patrick's, by seven points, they at least have a game in hand.

With little else to play for, a draw is no good for Pat Fenlon's men this evening, so despite their last four outings on the road finishing with two goals or fewer and their fixtures this season averaging a mere 2.2 goals per 90 minutes, I expect a less cautious approach.

The last meeting between these two finished 3-2 to Dundalk and the one prior 2-1 to Shamrock. I expect the goals to flow again, so with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.855/6 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers @ 1.855/6

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 275 pts
Returned: 289.54 pts
P/L: + 14.54 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)