Flemington plays host to the G1 Turnbul Stakes on Saturday
Head of Timeform Australia Gary Crispe previews the G1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday (07:20 BST).
Former European stayer Green Moon will use Saturday's G1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m as a sounding board for his future spring race program.
Green Moon is high up the betting markets for both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups however present plans are for him to by-pass the Caulfield Cup and contest the Cox Plate ahead of the Melbourne Cup. But that could all change depending on his performance on Saturday.
Run under set weights and penalties, the Turnbull Stakes has traditionally been an excellent guide to the spring features and under those conditions Green Moon looks attractively weighted compared to standard weight for age. The Turnbull Stakes was first run in 1948 but has undergone several race conditions changes in that time. It was a handicap from 1948 until 1963 when it changed to weight for age conditions, but has been set weights and penalties since 1971. The distance of the race was also changed from 2400m to 2000m in 1971 and upgraded to group one status in 2006. The winner is automatically qualified for the Caulfield Cup so it is an important race in that context.
The first three Caulfield Cup favourites in Betfair markets December Draw $10.50 (last year's Turnbull winner), Southern Speed $12.0 (fifth last year before winning the Caulfield Cup) and Green Moon $15.5 are all set to contest the Turnbull, along with several other leading Cups chances.
The Turnbull Stakes has been part of a Caulfield Cup campaign for 11 winners since 1990, Southern Speed last year being the most recent. The last winner to complete the Turnbull-Caulfield Cup double was Elvstroem in 2004. Early Betfair favourite for the Turnbull is the Lloyd Williams-owned Green Moon $5.50 who is now fully acclimatised; his Australian form well exposed after his debut run back in August of 2011. If his first two runs this campaign are a guide, there looks to be a big race for him this spring.
Coming on top of some useful form in the UK that has since been franked, last season he won the G3 Newcastle Gold Cup (2300m) in a tough front running performance then followed that up with an equally impressive second in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) behind Southern Speed.
One run in the Autumn yielded a devastating fresh up victory in the G2 Blamey Stakes over 1600m at Flemington before being spelled for the Spring. Last start racing second up he was just beaten in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) running to a new master Timeform rating of 121. Under the weight conditions today he tumbles 3.5 kilos which is sufficient to see him well placed on Timeform weight adjusted ratings. Green Moon is third up today but is a winner in that state. His only four runs at 2000m have yielded three wins and a placing plus he is a Flemington winner. Leading rider Craig Williams stays with him thereby forfeiting the mount on Caulfield Cup winning mare Southern Speed, so there are plenty of positives to support his high Timeform rating at the weights. The only query is the possibility of a wet track. Although untried on such going in Australia, his only two runs in Europe on wet ground were disappointing efforts.
The main dangers on weight adjusted Timeform ratings in what is a very open race are Voila Ici $8.60 and December Draw $6.60.
Former French galloper Voila Ici is an interesting galloper and he is one that will relish a damp track should those conditions materialise. Now with leading trainer Peter Moody, the son of Daylami has raced twice in Australia impressing both times. Fresh he tackled a totally unsuitable 1400m trip in the G2 Memsie Stakes behind Sincero for an eye-catching sixth; some effort considering the seven-year-old had never raced under 1800m in his entire career previously.
Then last time out he surprised again with a game front running effort in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) eventually being cut down by the eventual winner Ocean Park in the closing stages performing to a new Timeform rating peak of 123. Voila Ici also tumbles 3.5 kilos from the Underwood under today's conditions and is certain to have been improved further by that run. With little or no speed in the race, Voila Ici looks certain to race handy again and will take plenty of running down.
Last year's Turnbull Stakes winner December Draw will not be concerned by a wet track but the history stakes might be of bigger concern. Only two horses since 1948 have managed back to back wins; Comic Court (1949/50) and Vo Rogue (1987/1988). Another imported galloper, December Draw has shown stark improvement since coming to Australia winning five of his nine runs here and improving his Timeform rating several pounds with victories in the 2011 G1 Turnbull Stakes and G3 Naturalism Stakes.December Draw's form at this time last year was hard to fault which is why he went into the Caulfield Cup a short priced favourite only to be injured during the race.
In two runs back since that injury December Draw has shown he has lost none of his ability with a slashing third in the G1 Underwood Stakes behind Ocean Park last time out rating to 120, just a pound under his peak rating achieved in the 2011 Turnbull Stakes victory. December Draw will race handy and looks open to further improvement; however he does rise 3 kilos on his 2011 win, but it is worth noting he has been beaten just once in five starts on his home track.
The John Sadler-trained Linton is another who is well treated in the race. A winner fresh up for the new stable in Adelaide earlier this year, Linton was spelled with the spring in mind. He resumed with an eye-catching effort in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes running on well from well back in the field and will take great benefit from that run. Connections have advised stewards Linton will be ridden more forward this afternoon.
Classy staying mare Southern Speed will be looking to cement her position in betting markets for the Caulfield Cup with another strong display this afternoon. The 2011 Caulfield Cup winner ran to a new master Timeform rating of 121 two starts back winning a close battle with Manighar in the G2 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m at Flemington but then had little luck last time out when fourth in the G1 Underwood Stakes behind Ocean Park.Despite the negative weight turnaround with Voila Ici, Southern Speed remains one of the top Timeform weight adjusted runners in the race. If successful Southern Speed will become the first Caulfield Cup winner to return and win the Turnbull Stakes since Doriemus achieved the feat in 1996.
Saturday's race will also decide the future for Rekindled Interest whose career seems to be at the crossroads. Rekindled Interest has been a long time out of the winning list, 392 days to be exact and that was at this favourite track Moonee Valley in the 2011 renewal of the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes. However he has never been far away in many group one contests since that time including third placings in the 2011 Cox Plate and Mackinnon Stakes as well as a narrow defeat in the George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill; but he finds it hard to win.
Rekindled Interest has raced twice since a spell for a disappointing tenth fresh up but a much improved third in this year's Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes behind Happy Trails and Green Moon last time out. His record is not great at Flemington but if he can find his best form then he is capable of causing an upset at odds.
Recommendation
Back Green Moon @ $5.50 (provided track no worse than Dead)
Visit timeform.com to download FREE Timeform cards for Saturday's meetings at Flemington and Randwick.
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