Torneo Inicial Big Match Preview: Racing Club v Newell's Old Boys

Newell's boss Gerardo Martino

Ed Malyon previews this week's big game in the Torneo Inicial, the top-of-the-table clash between Racing Clu and Newell's Old Boys...

Given that we are only just beyond the halfway point of the Torneo Inicial it would seem a bit premature to call this Saturday's game between Racing Club and Newell's Old Boys a title decider, but when the top two kick off just after midnight UK time it will undoubtedly be the beginning of one of the most important matches of the season.

Newell's currently lead the pack, and deservedly so. Gerardo 'Tata' Martino's arrival as manager has shown the importance of having a great coach in charge as he turned the side from wooden spooners into potential champions in no time at all. It helped that Martino was a club legend, and learnt his management skills from Marcelo Bielsa among others (after whom their stadium is named!) and he looks good to make Newell's overachieve just as much as his Paraguay side did when he had the big job in Asuncin.

Martino has introduced a very modern, quite 'European' tactical system to Newell's - a high-pressing 4-3-3 with Ignacion Scocco effectively playing as a 'false 9', the first example of this in the Argentine league.

The team looked good last season but came up a bit short with four or five games to go, but in the off-season Martino brought in Gabriel Heinze and Maxi Rodriguez to provide extra experience and class and it has paid off superbly.

The aforementioned Scocco has also been a key recruit, and is currently top scorer in the league despite also missing a hatful of chances so far this campaign. But just as crucially, as with Maxi Rodriguez alongside him and the rest of the forwards in the squad, he leads from the front in defence and attempts to win the ball back as close to the opposition goal as possible.

This has helped contribute to them having the best defence in the division and has seen them concede in only two of their ten games this season.

Racing are no mugs though, and their quiet progress under young manager Luis Zubelda has seen them escape a lot of the pressure that they could have found themselves under.

His purchase of experienced heads like World Cup winner Mauro Camoranesi and veteran goalscorer Javier Campora has been beautifully complemented by the introduction of talented youth players like Ricardo Centurin and Luciano Vietto - both of whom are already attracting enormous interest from Serie A's top clubs.

Having abandoned the experiment with Jos Sand and Gabriel Hauche up front (both games where this duo started ended up in defeats) it seems Zubelda has found his strongest XI and with the veteran Fernando Ortz back in the defence this side has a strong look about it.

Crucially for Racing, Newell's will be missing Maxi Rodriguez due to an injury picked up on international duty with Argentina and Gerardo Martino has described it as a bad international break for the Rosario club: "even if it has served for the recoveries of players like in the case of Marcos Caceres - a recovering right-backn/a, we understand that some players have lost a bit of their shape, we hope this isn't apparent in the performance of the team."

Martino also described the Maxi injury as a "disgrace", and in his place is likely to be Victor Figueroa - a competent forward, but not to the level of the former Liveprool man.

Match odds

Home advantage sees Racing 2.526/4 for this game, but it seems so hard to split these two teams that having them as favourites by such a margin just doesn't seem right.

Goals

Both teams have been keeping a lot of clean sheets so perhaps the 0-0 correct score could be worth a nibble at 7.413/2. The game looks likely to be low-scoring, like the majority of the games involving these two this season, and exacerbated by the fact that so much rides on this match. Nonetheless, the Under 2.5 Goals option are far too short to be worthwhile at 1.538/15.

Other bets

It's going to be a tight game, and with Newell's losing a slight edge now that Maxi is out, it looks to have swung slightly in Racing's favour. The most likely result is a draw, and a low-scoring one at that, so 1-1 at 6.25/1 and 0-0 at 7.413/2 could be worth dutching, and they should be tradable too.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back 1-1 Correct Score @ 6.25/1
Back The Draw @ 3.1511/5