The X Factor Betting: This years runners and riders

Ella Henderson is odds-on already. Back or lay?
Reality TV fan Eliot Pollak runs us through this year's X Factor contestants, telling us who could win, who might end up on Channel 5, and those who may as well not turn up...
The X Factor is back!
That's right kids, it is time to fill that Louis-Walsh-shaped void in your life, to dose up on Gary Barlow pills, and scratch that Tulisa itch (although that might mean something else entirely come to think of it.) The X Factor Live Shows are back back back!!! And here are the Runners n' Riders.
The Favourites: Ella Henderson 1.9620/21, Jahmene Douglas 7.87/1, James Arthur 10.5n/a
Whoa there - a sub-Evens X Factor favourite in the opening week. Surely Syco won't be allowing that? What will it mean for viewing figures?
Two words for you - Laura White. Like Ella, White (back in Series 5) had a similar ratio of down-to-earth-Northerness and amazing vocals, yet she only lasted about a month. The trick is to not peak too soon so Henderson has to be a lay, perhaps even in the Girls market at 1.121/8.
Of the other two, James has the raw voice and unsmiling face that equals musical credibility in the X Factor world, but his cheerlessness may turn voters off as we move closer to Christmas. He'd be wise to start smiling to get onside with the various old grannies watching.
Which leaves Jahmene who is unfailingly polite, seriously uncomfortable when he isn't singing, but astonishing when he does. He's the kind of contestant you'd usually find performing vocal runs that last for miles on American Idol. But is the UK ready for this kind of transatlantic over-singing? If they are, he has to be backed, at least for a Top Three berth at 1.8810/11.
The Dark Horses: Kye Sones 13.5n/a, Jade Ellis 25.024/1, Union J 25.024/1
We have met these three before, most notably back in series Seven, when they went under the guises of Matt Cardle, Rebecca Ferguson, and One Direction. Working on that basis, Cardle's inability to last beyond the show make Sones less attractive, whilst One Direction still have broad enough shoulders to own the boyband section of the charts. Union J however, simply aren't as hot.
Jade Ellis is therefore our tip as dark horse to punt. Her back story - lesbian, single mum - is interesting, and her voice is very Radio Two. She probably won't win, but don't be surprised to see her there on the final night of the show. A possible for the Top Female (Girls market) at 7.26/1 and final weekend (Top Three market) at 4.67/2.
The Also-Rans:
Of the rest, Lucy Spraggan's (44.043/1) shtick is already getting a little bit tired, but if she can survive the next couple of weeks, there may be more to come from her. Probably has to lose the guitar and the twee ditties about drinking cups of tea however.
Rylan (150.0149/1) has already ensured his place in the pantheon of great X Factor contestants, by reacting to reaching the live shows with a hysterical Shakespearean performance. He'll end up on any number of Channel 5 shows before you know it but won't, however, continue much further here.
As for the true canon fodder, Melanie Masson (36.035/1), aged 44, is way too old for this. Christopher Maloney (60.059/1) looks like a drag queen during the day, whilst MK1 (38.037/1) and GMD3 (38.037/1) are just absolutely dreadful.