The Punters In-Play Blog: Amazing Grace still value

Branden Grace – In pole position already at the Dunhill
Steve's not had the best of starts with his pre-event picks but unperturbed he's dug-out plenty of in-running value. Read his early thoughts here...
10:20 - October 5, 2012
We've only had round one at each of this week's two events but we've already seen plenty of action, with 59's threatened on either side of the Atlantic. Branden Grace shot a course record 60 at Kingsbarns at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and then a few hours later Ryan Moore hit 61 at the JT Shriners Open. Both men now trade fairly short and punters need to decide whether either man is worth backing. I'll start with the Dunhill, where I think Grace is still a very fair price at 4.57/2...
Mercifully, I had my eye on Grace and I'm already onboard, having backed him early on yesterday at an average of 14.5n/a. Well aware that Grace was a fine links exponent, I'd made him a pre-event pick throughout the summer - at the Irish Open, the Scottish Open, the Open Championship and even at the USPGA, played at the linksy Kiawah Island, but frustratingly, I left him out from the get-go here, even though he'd won last week in South Africa!
As well as being frustrated at not backing Grace from the start, I'm a bit fed-up that I'm not on Thorbjorn Olesen at all! I backed two players on Monday that I changed my mind on and layed back. One was Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano at odds of 65.064/1 and the other was Olesen at the same price. I haven't backed him in-running because at no time have I viewed him as a fair price. After I'd layed him back on Monday he shortened up considerably and he's been a short price ever since, though I may still look to get with him at some stage but not yet, not when he's playing Carnoustie today.
Here's yesterday's hole averages at the three courses -
Carnoustie 71.2
Kingsbarns 68.18
St Andrews 66.71
As you'll see, by some distance, Carnoustie is the toughest of the three venues, with St Andrews the easiest. After his stunning 12 under-par at Kingsbarns yesterday, Grace, who leads Victor Dubuisson by two and Olesen by three, gets to attack St Andrews today and given that 13 of the top 18 will be slogging it out at Carnoustie and that nobody within five strokes of him is playing St Andrews today, the South African has an outstanding chance of opening up a considerably gap on the field and 4.57/2 about him looks a considerably better price than the 3.814/5 available about Ryan Moore.
Moore lives very close to TPC Summerlin and after he'd constructed his 10 under-par 61 he revealed to the media that he practices there often, so he's clearly comfortable there. He now leads Brendon de Jonge by one and Tim Herron and John Huh by two. He may well go on to win but I couldn't dream of taking such a short price about him at this early stage.
Moore is notoriously dodgy in-contention and given I think his price is creating value elsewhere, I've already played a number of other players.
John Huh has impressed me a few times this year and I got him onside at 20.019/1 in-running yesterday, as well as Justin Leonard at 70.069/1 and I added two more this morning.
I looked at Rory Sabbatini before the off at a huge price but he'd missed a string of cuts of late so I left him out. He finished 2nd here in 2001 and 5th a year later, so he does have course form and he's also got the advantageous early start today. There wasn't a massive differential between the morning and afternoon starters yesterday, just under a 1 shots but it certainly isn't going to inconvenience Rory being out nice early and I thought 42.041/1 about the gutsy South African was a great price, but the one I really like at the prices is Patrick Reed, who just like Sabbatini, is four off the lead.
I wrote about young Patrick fairly extensively here before the Reno-Tahoe Open, where I backed him at a single-figure price. He's the archetypical long-shot first time winner that this event creates year on year and I'm amazed I've been able to back him at over 200.0199/1 this morning.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Graham DeLaet @ an average of 180.0179/1
James Morrison @ 230.0229/1
George Murray @ an average 540.0539/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 130.0129/1 - backed after the preview was published
In-Running Play
Branden Grace @ an average of 14.5n/a
JT Shriners Open Pre-Event Selections:
Chad Campbell @ 65.064/1
Charley Hoffman @ 80.079/1
George McNeil @ 90.089/1
Garth Mulroy @ 130.0129/1
Roberto Castro @ 190.0189/1
Alexandre Rocha @ an average of 450.0449/1
Scott Brown @ 510.0509/1
Matt Bettencourt @ 660.0659/1
In-Running plays
John Huh @ 20.019/1
Rory Sabbatini @ 42.041/1
Justin Leonard @ 70.069/1
Patrick Reed @ an average of 230.0229/1