Shanghai Masters Betting: Dont write off Dolgopolov

Will it be Dolgo's day in Shanghai?
Andy Murray is yet to hit a ball in the Shanghai Masters and Sean Calvert suspects that the erratic Ukrainian Alexandr Dolgopolov will have a chance in their third round clash...
Wednesday was a write-off as far as my recommended bet was concerned, as Florian Mayer withdrew from the tournament with an injury that prevented him from taking to the court.
So, all bets were void and stakes refunded on that one and Andy Murray waltzed through to the third round without so much as swinging a racquet in anger.
The defending champion moves on to what is essentially a pretty similar kind of match-up today against the wildly erratic and incredibly frustrating Ukrainian Alex Dolgopolov.
A lot of the things that I said yesterday about Mayer are also true of Dolgopolov and with the prices being quite similar the value play has to be to back Dolgo to some degree.
I make a point these days of never backing Dolgo as an odds-on shot because you just never know which version of him will turn up - and worryingly neither does he most of the time.
Only some of that can be put down to his long-term health problems and it's very much a lottery backing him at a short price, but today I'm happy to take a slight chance on the world number 20 at favourable odds.
They've met twice in the last couple of years, with Murray winning both and, like the Mayer match, the Scot could easily run through this one for the loss of just a few games. But he might not.
This time of year is not the time to wade in at serious odds-on and Dolgo when he's on form can be very tough to stop. It's just a question of whether he's on form and feels like it or not.
He did win his most recent match against a top-five ranked player, which was also in quick conditions on the blue clay and altitude of Madrid against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but overall he's 3-18 against top-10 players and 0-6 against players ranked in the top-three at the time of the matches.
So, quite simply, this would be the win of his career really and it's why Murray is a 1.162/13 shot to win it, but he hasn't yet played a match here, while his opponent has played two and not dropped a set yet.
Given that Dolgopolov does have it in him to trouble the best for a while at least I like the idea of backing him at 7.26/1 with little risk and hopefully laying at a shorter price later in the match.
If Murray is on a good day and Dolgo doesn't turn up this could be over very quickly, but there are worse 7.26/1 shots around today than this one.
Recommended Bet
Back to lay Dolgopolov at 7.26/1