пятница, 12 октября 2012 г.

England v San Marino Betting: There will be goals... but how many?

Jermain Defoe should enjoy himself against San Marino
England will beat San Marino, and they almost certainly won't concede, so what is the best way to profit from the Friday night mismatch? Joe Dyer attempts to answer that question
The worst international football team in the world are in town and the main question for punters ahead of Friday night's mismatch is just how much of a tonking will San Marino take.
Strictly speaking, world football's original minnows are actually the joint lowest ranked team in the international game (alongside the Turks and Caicos Islands) but this is the world no. 207 away to the fifth best side, so a shoeing is mandatory. In fact, given the relative strengths of both squads, the somewhat amazing thing is you can actually back the home team to win.
In two competitive fixtures against Friday's opposition, England have racked up 13 goals while infamously conceding once, when chasing qualification to USA 1994. San Marino have lost 108 of their 114 fixtures - last tasting victory on April 27, 2004. The opponents were Liechtenstein, the final score 1-0.
So, victory is not in question for Roy Hodgson's men, and at 1.011/100 to back on Betfair they are the definition of banker material.
The proper betting and the bigger prices are to be found in the number of goals the home team will score - whether on the overs/unders, correct score or Asian Handicap.
More guidance comes in the form of San Marino's one previous result in Group H - a 6-0 home defeat to Montenegro.
And the feeling is a 6-0 England victory will be a par score against such weak opposition.
The Asian Handicap market is struggling to catch up with that notion, with England heavily odds-on to win this conceding the largest start the market offers - minus four goals.
The overs/unders markets are almost comical. Over 4.5 is available to back an eye-watering 1.331/3 - and while that should be a winner do you really want to be waiting on a late avalanche to collect? Laying that or over 5.5 at 1.75/7 could make for an in-play trade should England struggle to score early goals.
The preferred option for me is backing a suite of correct scores - 5-0, 6-0 and 7-0. Split your stakes for equal returns and the bet will pay at around 2.68/5.
Recommended Bets
Dutch 5-0, 6-0 and 7-0 England wins @ average odds of 2.68/5

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