Dominic Beirnes Weekend Review: The benefit of speed maps

All Too Hard won at the weekend
In his review of the weekend's races, Dominic Beirne reveals that betting in-the-run provided phenomenal opportunities on Saturday...
The Caulfield Guineas and Toorak Handicap results hinged completely on the speed map and consequent tactics.
As forecast in my preview last Friday, the 'speed map implies that Pierro is not certain to get into the running line.'
The IWS map had Pierro three-wide facing the breeze and by stepping poorly from the barrier, the great colt experienced indeed the expected competitiveness of rival jockeys.
To emphasize the merit of his defeat, Pierro ran the second 200 metres, uphill, in 10.7 seconds, three lengths faster than the Toorak.
While More Joyous got a softer second furlong than Pierro, the pressure on the great mare was relentless as she was asked to sustain consecutively quick furlongs all the way to the home turn, by which time she was completely spent.
The IWS map had forecast a great run for More Joyous. However, a confluence of events conspired against the champion and one by one, Spirit Song, King Mufhasa, Solzehnitsyn and Steps in Time ensured the 60 kg burden would have full impact.
More Joyous traded on Betfair at (3.00) at the 1000m post. Had you compared the IWS speed map with what was happening on the turf, you would never have backed More Joyous at that price.
In fact, I doubt she was better than a 5-1 chance to win at the 1000m.
Eventual winner, Solzehnitsyn, was (5.10) on Betfair at the jump, yet at the 1000m he traded at (4.70). Close scrutiny of the IWS map and what unfolded negatively for More Joyous and positively for Solzehnitsyn provided great intelligence to back the eventual winner.
In the Guineas, I forecast that 'a soft transit would be experienced by All Too Hard' and that Epaulette might get the one-by-one. What we anticipated did indeed play out, but the bonus for these two colts was that Pierro was taxed early.
At the 1000m, All Too Hard traded at (13.0), in slightly from his (14.06) Betfair SP, but still higher than the on-course SP of (12.0). At the same time, Pierro had blown from (1.22) to (1.42), a loss of 11.5%. The Betfair in-running market was correct to ease Pierro to that extent, but left open a stunning opportunity for IWS speed map observers to swoop on succulent odds about All Too Hard.
When I declared All Too Hard a good thing in the George Main last start, I was desperately hoping for a solid pace. I wrote in my preview:
'All horses have a comfort zone; often it's not established until connections and horse are in sync. Winning the George Main requires perfect synchronisation between the trainer's instructions, the jockey's application and the colt's character.'
I added further:
'All Too Hard has particular traits that may result in a lower than desirable winning strike-rate but may see him capture some significant races. The first (trait) is a desire to be left alone early in his race.'
When All Too Hard settled at the tail in a fast-run race, he was certain to be powerful at the post. With his running style, All Too Hard will remain at the mercy of the race pace ratio, but when it's run to suit, he's got the power game to win plenty of Group 1 races.
A client of info@racetactics.com said recently: 'Dominic, the 2% first prize-money fee you charge is money well spent.'
Betfair readers don't pay that fee and observant in-running players are getting tremendous value.
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