понедельник, 24 сентября 2012 г.

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday September 24

Andrew Balding trains one of today's SmartPlays
There's some good racing on offer for a Monday, and Timeform's SmartPlays team have picked out three they see as being of particular interest...
Going by what we saw yesterday (and the fact that the course had to pass an inspection at 7am today), Hamilton is going to provide a gruelling test this afternoon and your starting point should really be with horses proven to be adept in the mud. The opening maiden obviously isn't much good for those purposes, but in the second race (14:10) Master Bond very much fits the bill. He hasn't raced on heavy yet, but all of his best efforts have come on softer than good so it takes no great leap of the imagination to see him relishing conditions today. Master Bond's last two runs are both excusable, too, undone by the draw at York in May and racing on firmer ground returning from a break last time. He shaped very well (on soft ground) on his reappearance and if able to belatedly build on that with conditions back on his favour he will go close.
Our other two SmartPlays come on the rather more predictable Kempton polytrack, but the ground is still somewhat significant in the case of our first selection. Intransigent would merit strong consideration in any case as an improving three-year-old that finished an arguably unlucky second in a big-field race at Ascot last time, but when considering his form on polytrack (two wins and a second from three starts) coupled with the fact he's a half-brother to the smart Border Music, who recorded seven of his eight wins on polytrack, he becomes an outstanding candidate for the 16:20. This is admittedly a strong race for a Monday, with a number of unexposed three-year-olds in attendance, but it's no stronger than Ascot and sparser in terms of numbers, so Intransigent goes down as a strong selection.
Sticking with Kempton, sticking with competitive three-year-old handicaps and sticking with those proven on the surface, Tiger Cliff in the 16:50 is our final SmartPlay of the day. His being proven on polytrack admittedly has little context as he's raced on nothing but, though that is more than enough for our purposes considering he's only had two starts in his career and that they've both contained abundant promise. Tiger Cliff's most recent outing was at this course, over a furlong shorter than today's trip, and he was still green despite running out a comfortable winner, idling once in command. He's been given a mark which looks less than generous on the bare form of that success, but with so much more expected to come Tiger Cliff can make this handicap debut a winning one.
Timeform SmartPlays
Back Master Bond @ 8.415/2 in the 14:10 at Hamilton
Back Intransigent @ 3.02/1 in the 16:20 at Kempton
Back Tiger Cliff @ 4.77/2 in the 16:50 at Kempton

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