среда, 19 сентября 2012 г.

Timeform Daily: Thursday, Ayr 16:40

Thursday's Timeform Daily comes from Ayr
Timeform offer a runner-by-runner guide to a ten-furlong handicap at Ayr...
Circumvent won a 9f Goodwood handicap last year. Some good efforts in defeat since, including after 4 months off when sixth to Dandino in Group 3 at Kempton last time. Headgear back on with tongue tie tried
Muffin Mcleay was well backed and posted his best effort to date to land 1m Ripon handicap in July. Has 8 lb rise and 2 month absence to overcome here, but looks sure to be in the mix nevertheless.
Scrapper Smith is a three-time course winner, including this corresponding race last year. Winless this term, but posted career-best effort at Chester last time when close third of 13 to Tominator (13.4f). Shortlisted.
Voodoo Prince is a lightly-raced gelding who improved for reappearance to take 10-runner 1m event at Ripon last month. Remains relatively unexposed and certainly fresher than most, so may continue on upward curve.
Fair Trade had some pretty smart form to his name as a 3-y-o for David Elsworth but well held in 4 starts this year. Given chance by handicapper here (16 lb lower than last run), but risky with stamina doubt.
Silvery Moon is a consistent sort who followed up success here over 1m in July with victory at Doncaster (1m) the following month. Below form twice since, though, and may be found wanting again.
Clayton ran away with 1m Southwell maiden on debut. Showed progressive form when placed in 3 handicaps after, including in valuable 1m Musselburgh event last time, though that was in June and up 7 lb now
Suits Me is a front runner who has generally been running with credit in defeat this term, including when fifth of 16 to Danadana at York last time, though he appears in handicapper's grip for now
Las Verglas Star won twice last year and back to best when second on 3 occasions in June/July, but needs to bounce back from lesser effort at York last time (behind Kalk Bay and Suits Me) and passed over
Hillview Boy has been winless since May 2010, though runner-up at Hamilton in May (1m) and not discredited all 4 efforts since. Interesting off a slipping handicap mark, especially if the rains arrive
Kalk Bay was useful for William Haggas at 3 yrs and, having slipped in weights, showed he retains all that ability with wins at Redcar and Beverley before good second to Danadana at York, all in August.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Scrapper Smith
2. Voodoo Prince
3. Hillview Boy
Timeform View: Scrapper Smith is given the nod to repeat his 2011 success in this race after some good efforts over further recently. Muffin McLeay and Clayton both have absences to overcome, so Voodoo Prince may be his closest rival, while Hillview Boy would come into the equation if the ground deteriorated further.

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