Can Stoke's centre-backs nullify Sanchez?
Alex Keble once again delves through the performance stats to assess where the most important individual battles will be this weekend, and picks out four bets based on who will come out on top...
Liverpool's passing v Lee Cattermole
Saturday, 15:00
Considerably shaken by the creative void that hangs over Anfield, and without Steven Gerrard's assured distribution in midfield, Liverpool resorted to a long ball tactic in their last home match (against Stoke). If they repeat this trick against Sunderland - a similarly dogged, well-drilled defensive unit - they will struggle once again.
Their rapidly declining self-confidence, exacerbated by Stoke's ability to pounce upon their nervousness with uncharacteristically high pressing, forced Liverpool into a style that, given Rodgers' philosophical vision, they were not tactically set up for.
Liverpool held 48.2% possession (down from a seasonal average of 55%), and made only 338 passes (down from 460 in their previous match). Sunderland, who narrowed the pitch superbly against Chelsea, will fancy their chances.
In their impressive 0-0 draw with the Blues, Gus Poyet packed the middle of the pitch with hard-working players, denying space in these areas and sitting behind the ball in narrow banks, as emphasised by their measly 34% possession.
Leading the way, and optimistic of bullying Liverpool's attacking midfielders, will be the magnificent Lee Cattermole, who averages 3.1 tackles and 2.6 interceptions per match; his physical threat will only increase Liverpool's nerves in possession.
If the likes of Phillipe Coutinho and Jordan Henderson play as they did against Stoke (66.7% and 67.9% pass completion respectively), Cattermole, Jack Rodwell, and co. will snuff them out, making Liverpool look more disjointed than ever.
Conceding four goals in midweek doesn't bode well, but in truth Man City only managed four shots on target; it's unlikely that Livderpool will be so ruthless.
With Gerrard returning to the side, and on the back of a solid win at Leicester, Liverpool may just have enough to win, but it will be a tight game and it's worth taking a chance on the draw.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw at 10/3
Coloccini v Costa
Saturday, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1
When statistically analysed, it becomes clear that Newcastle's five successive league victories were a false dawn, resulting primarily from the goalscoring inefficiencies of their opponents. What's more, the goal conceded at West Ham last weekend was a stark reminder of the defensive frailties that still persist; Chelsea can - and probably will - expose them on Saturday.
Despite boasting four clean sheets, Newcastle conceded an average of 11 shots on goal per game in their five-game winning streak, the same amount as their average across the entire season. In truth, the key to their record was the woeful conversion rate of the opposition; Chelsea, hitting the net once every seven shots on goal this season, will not be so forgiving.
Unfortunately for Newcastle, the defensive system that was exposed so brutally in the opening seven matches of the season has not altered significantly. Alan Pardew's defence remains relatively open, stretched, and high up the pitch, as characterised by their strength in winning the ball from their opponents (16.8 interceptions per match, 4th highest in division), and the touchline-width of their wingers.
As a result, Newcastle can often be caught out - five times this season already - by killer through balls, and centre-forwards who thrive on one-on-ones; against West Ham last weekend Aaron Cresswell scored a winning goal of exactly this type, thanks to the return of some chaotic defending (exemplified by their 1.1 offsides caught per match, the league's fewest), and the slowness of Fabricio Coloccini.
Cesc Fabregas (10 assists, 3.4 key passes per game) and Diego Costa (11 goals, 3.1 shots per game) will almost certainly find the time - and space - to combine successfully at St James Park.
Despite the optimism surrounding Newcastle, their old frailties have begun to return, and Chelsea are the perfect team to exploit them.
Recommended Bet
Back a Chelsea win at 8/15
Sanchez v Stoke's centre backs
Saturday, 15:00
Although the Tony Pulis days are long behind them, Stoke City still possess the tallest team in the league (1.84m average), and arguably the strongest. With Mark Hughes likely to employ a similar strategy used in their (almost) nullification of Liverpool, Arsenal can expect to face highly efficient, narrow defensive lines.
In typical Hughes style, Stoke are a ruthlessly organised team, specialising in extremely narrow, deep defending that forces the opposition to pass the ball aimlessly in front of them. Refusing to be pulled out of position, they crowd the penalty area and force opposing sides to shift the ball into wide areas, awaiting crosses they can comfortably defend; 33.8 aerial duels won per match is, by some distance, the league's highest.
Stoke's willingness - when required - to concede possession and defend deep is exemplified in the unusual statistics of their centre backs. Both Ryan Shawcross and Marc Wilson make a large number of clearances (7.3 and 7.7 per game respectively), but relatively few tackles (1.4 and 1.3) or interceptions (1.9 and1.4); both players rarely interact with play outside their own box, instructed instead to stand off the opposition, ready to use their height and physicality when crosses come in.
Considering 32% of Arsenal's attacks come through the middle (league's highest), Stoke's defensive narrowness may work against them. However, Arsenal have been crossing the ball into the box far more frequently in recent weeks; five of their last seven Premier League goals have resulted from crosses.
Opportunities to thread the ball into the box from central positions will be severely limited on Saturday; Arsenal must be willing to cross the ball if they are to win this game. Alexis Sanchez, with 2.6 key passes per game and 2.9 dribbles per game, is undeniably Stoke's greatest threat, but Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain - with his natural width and crossing ability - could also be key.
Stoke - through Bojan - are dangerous on the break, and know how to keep a clean sheet against tough opposition.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw at 5/2
Hangelaand v Kane and Soldado
Saturday, 15:00
In an increasingly possession-centric sport of high pressing and technical precision, fielding a lone striker has been tactically trendy for much of the last decade. Against Everton, however, Spurs reminded everyone of the joys of the strike partnership, with Everton struggling to track the runs of two strikers.
For Tottenham's first goal, Harry Kane's diagonal run dragged both Everton centre-backs out of position, creating space for Roberto Soldado todribble and shoot unchallenged, in a piece of open attacking play that is largely absent from modern football. The fact that both Phil Jagielka and Sylvain Distin mistakenly tracked the same run is testament to the unfamiliarity of this system.
This weekend, Scott Dann's and Brede Hangeland's communication will be crucial, as will Julien Speroni's ability to organise them. With key player Mile Jedinak (4.3 tackles, 3.8 interceptions) likely to be preoccupied by the drifting movement of Christian Eriksen, Warnock may struggle to ensure his centre backs - both of whom are a little slow for Premier League standards - are not left two-on-two.
Expect goals from Spurs in the coming weeks, as opposition teams - starting with Palace this Saturday - struggle to remember how to defend like it's 1999.
Recommended Bet
Back over 3.5 goals at 15/8
Please note: Prices quoted are from our Sportsbook product so are exempt from commission
All stats courtesy of WhoScored.com
Alex Keble's 2014/15 P/L
Staked: 8pts
Returned: 1.3 pts
P/L: - 6.7 pts
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