Newcastle v Chelsea: Invincible credentials to come under scrutiny

Credit where credit is due: Ashley stuck by Pardew

Jose Mourinho's side look increasingly impenetrable as the season progresses, but they will face a stern examination of their 'invincible' credentials when they go to St James' Park this Saturday...

Newcastle v Chelsea
Saturday December 6, 2014
BT Sport 1

Newcastle

Mike Ashley doesn't get much credit or recognition within footballing circles, but he should be highly commended for refusing to bow to pressure from the club's supporters and sacking Alan Pardew at the beginning of October.

Just two months ago with Newcastle winless in their opening seven Premier League games the knives were sharpened, pitch forks out and bed sheets decorated in verses of revolt against the manager. Fast-forward eight weeks and the Magpies are up to ninth in the Premier League table and into the quarter-finals of the Capital One Cup, having lost only one and won six of their last nine in all competitions.

Clean sheets and efficient narrow wins have been the modus operandi for the Geordies, with five wins to nil in their last eight games and each of their last six fixtures featuring two goals or fewer.

Injury to goalkeeper Tim Krul has thrown a spanner in the works, however, with Newcastle picking up just one point and conceding in both games since the Dutchman was ruled out with an ankle problem. He joins the likes of Ryan Taylor, Gabriel Obertan, Davide Santon and Siem de Jong on the sidelines this weekend, while there will be late fitness tests for Fabricio Coloccini and Sammy Ameobi. The home side can, however, at least welcome back Moussa Sissoko and Jack Colback from suspension.

Chelsea

With every passing game and week Chelsea look more and more 'unbeatable', and the Premier League title being presented in west London at the end of the season looks as inevitable as the 1.341/3 odds suggest.

Although the Blues dropped a couple of points at the Stadium of Light last weekend they never really looked like they might lose the game and, in post-match interviews, the result was talked about more as an inconvenience than anything worth worrying about. A sentiment that was backed up in midweek when Jose Mourinho's men romped to an emphatic 3-0 win over Tottenham.

Top scorer Diego Costa missed the game against Spurs due to suspension, but such is the strength and depth of this squad that his absence was barely felt as strikers Didier Drogba and Loic Remy both stepped up to the mark and found the back of the net.

Midfielder Nemanja Matic's suspension - for an accumulation of yellow cards - may, however, prove a little more problematic for Mourinho. The ever-present Serbian has featured in every one of Chelsea's 14 Premier League and five Champions League games this season and his slightly understated role in the middle of the park has been at the foundation of their success. Gary Cahill is also a doubt after he was forced off at half-time in the win against Spurs.

Match Odds

Newcastle have an impressive recent record against Chelsea having won three of the last five home and away and each of the last two at St James' Park. Add into the mix the Geordies' recent run of form and the general mood around the camp, as well as the absence of Matic and the uncertainties that come with that, and I believe that the visitors are worth opposing at the 1.574/7 being offered about them in the Match Odds market.

Despite a packed and hectic schedule Mourinho has shown no desire to rest the Serbian stalwart and that alone is telling. I do expect their unbeaten record to stay in tact though, so wouldn't go as far as to suggest backing Newcastle at odds 7.413/2, but a punt on the draw at 4.3100/30 or a lay of Chelsea at 1.574/7 is strongly advised.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Although Chelsea have got plenty of goals in them, Newcastle don't score or concede many and the Blues arrive in the north east having kept four consecutive clean sheets in all competitions. The market suggests that it's a flip of a coin but over time I believe this fixture would throw up more games with less than 2.5 goals than more, therefore Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.01/1 is the bet.

Correct Score

I also think it's worth having a few quid on the 0-0 Correct Score at odds of 13.012/1. Newcastle set up quite similarly to Sunderland defensively and we saw last weekend the problems that Chelsea had breaking them down. At the price it should at least be a good starting point for a Cash Out trade.

Recommended Bets
2pts Lay Chelsea @ 1.574/7
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.01/1
0.5pts Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 13.012/1

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 30.5 pts
Returned: 33.38 pts
P/L: +2.88 pts