Romania v Northern Ireland: Get a green book by backing the yellows

Northern Ireland boss Michael O'Neill

Lewis Jones thinks the Northern Ireland fairytale may hit a rocky path this Friday as they face a tricky trip to Bucharest with an injury-hit squad...

Romania v Northern Ireland
Friday, KO 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 2

Romania

Anghel Iordanescu, who begins his third spell in charge of Romania on Friday, has taken over a team with plenty of European pedigree that should be on course to gain automatic qualification from this group after a solid start.

A 1-0 away win in Greece was followed up by a perhaps disappointing 1-1 draw with Hungary but a convincing 2-0 away win in Finland last month showed the true capabilities of this squad.

The midfield duo of Alexandru Chipciu and Cristian Tanase are a talented pair for both their club Steaua and at international level while Vlad Chiriche is a defender deemed good enough for Tottenham to fork out over 6million for.

Ciprian Marica, who scored the winner against Greece, is Romania's man goal threat and will return from a two-game suspension here, which is a big boost for the hosts. He will be looking to add to his 25 goals at international level.

Northern Ireland

What a few months it's been for the travelling Green and White Army.

Northern Ireland are in a fantastic position to qualify for the Euros in France by winning their first three games.

An impressive run at international level by any standard but made even more eye opening by the fact that two of those victories came away from home against two of the stronger members of the group, Hungary (2-1) and Greece (2-0). If they win in Romania, they will go five points clear at the top of Group F with four home matches still to come.

Make no bones about it if Northern Ireland can return from Romania with their 100% record still intact, it will surpass their achievement against the Greeks as they are in the midst of an injury crisis.

Already without centre-halves Jonny Evans and Alex Bruce, Michael O'Neill has seen five of his starting line-up from the games with the Faroes and Greece be struck down with injures.

Jamie Ward (thigh), Ryan McLaughlin (groin), Shane Ferguson (knee) and Steven Davis (hamstring) all are definitely ruled out while there are strong doubts that Aaron Hughes will not recover from his injury in time for kick-off.

Match Odds

One of the key traits about continuing momentum at international level, especially for the lower ranked teams, is being able to find a consistent formula and team selection that works.

After a couple of years of average performances and results, O'Neill has found a happy medium and with it has come vital Euro 2016 qualification points. However, as we have already touched upon, the injury list looks set to scupper NI's chances of getting a positive performance and result in Romania.

A country this of this size can barely cope with one or two injuries to key personnel but to have five regular starters on the sidelines is bordering on disastrous.

The loss of Davis in particular is a huge worry.

He was outstanding in victories away from home in Hungary and Greece, relieving the pressure on his defence by keeping things ticking over in the middle of the park whilst also providing an attacking springboard for NI to base their attacks around. It could be argued that the talented Davis is playing the best football of his career of late with him making 14 appearances for high-flying Southampton this season.

Oldham midfielder Carl Winchester and Rochdale's Matty Lund are among the candidates to replace and with all due respect to those two, the heart of the NI midfield will be severely weakened with the change.

The energy of Ward in the Northern Ireland frontline will also be significantly missed, which could have a knock-on effect to the level of performance of Kyle Lafferty, who is a much more proactive striker when paired with a willing runner up top.

He'll probably play up there on his own or be partnered by one of Kilmarnock striker Josh Magennis, Billy McKay of Inverness Caledonian Thistle or Will Grigg of MK Dons.

Unsurprisingly the markets have cottoned on to this weakness in the visitors' team selection and they have drifted out to 7.87/1 for the victory, which looks about right in my eyes.

Rather annoyingly for my betting escapes, the price on Romania, who have lost just one of their last 10 home matches, has also balanced out and shortened as a consequence. You can get 1.594/7 for your money on a home win while the draw can be punted at 4.03/1.

Once again those prices are about right and I'm going elsewhere for a best bet.

Under 2.5 Goals

Away from home O'Neill usually likes to keep it tight, defend deep and hit on the counter and that tactic will be in full flow on Friday with the lack of attacking options at his disposal.

He would be mad to employ any other tactics here as a draw would be a fantastic result for the visitors.

In fact, the way Iordanescu has been speaking in the build up to this match, claiming his side are the "underdogs" it wouldn't surprise me if the Romanians try to keep it tight for long periods too.

Both teams conceded only one goal in qualifying so far and the case for Under 2.5 Goals even at 1.594/7 is incredibly strong when assessing both teams recent records. Just one of Northern Ireland's last nine games have seen three goals or more scored while Romania's matches have failed to break that barrier in six of their last seven outings.

Romania to win & Under 2.5 Goals

I'm not one for attacking or tipping up a short price, so to bulk up the odds surrounding my thinking on the outcome of this match, it's time to combine Romania to win and a lack of goals to create a price which is more of the working man's sort of thing.

When the market becomes fully functioning, I'd be fully expecting the price to trade around the 2.56/4 mark. Anything bigger is a bonus. Get on.

Recommended Bet
Back Romania to win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.56/4 or bigger