The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Arsenal

Cesc Fabregas will face his old club Arsenal for the first time

Arsene Wenger has never beaten Jose Mourinho in 11 attempts so will it be 12th time lucky for the Arsenal manager? Michael Cox considers the intriguing tactical battle, while professional trader Alan Thompson gives you his expert view on the betting...

Chelsea v Arsenal
Sunday 14:05, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Chelsea 1.75/7, Arsenal 5.69/2, The Draw 4.216/5.

Chelsea recorded a 6-0 thrashing of Arsenal in this fixture last season, so the Gunners will be desperate for revenge at Stamford Bridge. Arsene Wenger, however, has a very poor record against Jose Mourinho - six defeats, five draws, and no victories.

"It is not a game between two managers, it is a game between two clubs," Wenger insisted on Friday morning, attempting to play down his personal rivalry with Mourinho. He's certainly correct, but the reality is that Mourinho's tactics have often caught out Arsenal - never more obviously than last season, when Chelsea remained compact in their own half, pressed as Arsenal crossed the halfway line, and counter-attacked in behind the full-backs to great effect.

Mourinho is likely to use a similar strategy this time around. As always, his sides look more organised in his second season, and with Diego Costa upfront, Chelsea could be even more dangerous on the counter-attack. Although the Brazilian-turned-Spaniard has hit the headlines for his penalty box poaching, at Atletico Madrid he was superb at running the channels and sprinting in behind the opposition centre-backs on the break, something he's likely to do throughout this game. 

Laurent Koscielny is excellent in those situations, relentlessly tracking opponents into the corners and generally coming away with the ball, but Per Mertesacker can be exposed in terms of pace.

Arguably the key question is whether Arsenal's full-backs advance as aggressively as last season, or play more cautiously to protect the centre-backs. Their instinct is always to attack, but Chelsea will be happy for them to push forward and leave space behind - not just for Costa, but also for Eden Hazard and Willian. 

Hazard isn't great defensively but should give Calum Chambers a real test, and while the youngster has adapted smoothly to life at Arsenal, he has a tendency to dive into tackles. Hazard is a difficult opponent, and I can imagine Chambers' name going into the book. Back him to be shown a card at 3.412/5.

In terms of team selection, however, both managers have the same dilemma. Both Mourinho and Wenger have played 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 this season, and therefore the decision is whether to field three solid central midfielders, with one deeper than the other, or play a number ten at the top of the triangle, effectively providing another attacking option.

This could play a significant part in the outcome of the game - if it's 4-3-3 v 4-3-3, this could be tight and tense. If it's 4-2-3-1 v 4-2-3-1, we could be in for fireworks.

Ideally, Mourinho would like to field Nemanja Matic, Ramires and Cesc Fabregas together, which seems his most natural 'big game' formation. However, Ramires is unavailable through injury, and Chelsea don't have a natural understudy for the Brazilian. 

What is Mourinho's solution? Does he stick with the 4-2-3-1, with Fabregas deep alongside Matic, and play Oscar just ahead? Does he play Matic as the solid holder, with Fabregas and Oscar together in a 4-3-3? Or, alternatively, does he go ultra-defensive and field Matic alongside John Obi Mikel, with Fabregas given license to break forward against his former club? Mourinho generally plays it cautious in big games, and I think the latter format makes most sense - it would be a hybrid of his usual two systems.

Wenger has a similar decision to make. It's questionable whether Mathieu Flamini and Jack Wilshere (or Santi Cazorla) with Mesut Ozil as the number ten gives enough midfield strength against a powerful Chelsea side, and therefore he could decide to field three central midfielders in a 4-3-3. That's the shape he played in this fixture last year - not that it worked, of course.

Still, on paper, it makes most sense to play Flamini as the holder, with Wilshere and Cazorla just in front. Ozil would play from the left - not his favoured position, but concessions have to be made in big matches - with Alexis Sanchez starting on the right and Danny Welbeck upfront after his hat-trick in midweek. The odd man out would be Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

That makes most sense for his specific challenge, but Wenger might be reluctant to disturb the harmony obvious throughout Arsenal's 4-1 thrashing of Galatasaray in midweek. Nevertheless, that was an astonishingly disorganised Galatasaray side, where Arsenal could get away with being lightweight in midfield and concentrate on getting runners in behind. It won't be that simple against a Chelsea side likely to stay compact inside their own half, and therefore Wenger must adapt.

Team selections will play a big part in this contest, and therefore I won't enter any market involving goals until the starting XIs are announced. It might sound simplistic, but the more attacking players on show, the more likely we'll see a goalfest.

Recommeded Bet
Back Calum Chambers to be shown a card at 3.412/5

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Last season Chelsea picked up a maximum 27 points at home against sides finishing in the top half of the league. So far this season they have played three times at the Bridge and won all three, scoring nine goals in the process – albeit maybe not against top half finishing opposition come May. As well as sitting proudly at the top of the Premier League, they are also clear leaders in the goal scoring charts with 19 already this campaign (averaging 3.17 per game) next best are Everton and Man City with 12.

While Chelsea continue to perform well against quality opposition, the same can’t be said about their opponents. Away from the Emirates last season they lost every game against the top five, conceding 20 goals, an average of five per game. That poor sequence included a 6-0 thrashing at Stamford Bridge of course. The season before wasn’t much better with only a single draw at the Etihad and three defeats. Therefore, Arsenal have picked up one point from 24 available when playing away against the top five over the last two seasons.

I can’t see past another Chelsea victory here and wouldn’t want to put anyone off the 1.69 available in the match odds market. However, in the pursuit of better value I am looking at a different market. Chelsea have been drawing at the interval in two of their three home games this campaign and all square at half-time in eight of their home games last season. With ten of the last 22 games at Stamford Bridge being level at half time, I think there is value in backing Draw/Chelsea @ 5.0 or better in the Half Time/Full Time market.