Premier League Stats Review: Ultra-reliable Gunners can handle Hull to land handicap win

High-quality Arsenal can be relied upon in fixtures against mid-ranking Premier League sides

Andrew Atherley looks ahead to Saturday's Premier League fixtures and his stats point him towards Arsenal on the Asian Handicap against Steve Bruce's Hull in a re-run of last season's FA Cup final... 

Hull gave Arsenal a real scare the last time they met in the FA Cup final in May, but don't expect a repeat showing when the Tigers visit the Emirates stadium on Saturday.

This looks a mismatch between teams at opposite ends of the form lines and there has to be a good angle for punters. The one that stands out is to back Arsenal off -1.5 on the Asian handicap at around 2.111/10, which offers odds-against for an outcome that appears regularly in their record.

First of all, it is worth nailing down just how good Arsenal are. The answer is very good - pretty much all they lack is the high-end quality and/or resilience to match the elite teams, as we saw again before the international break in their 2-0 defeat at Chelsea.

Take the Gunners out of that white-hot scenario, however, and their results are hard to knock. At home, for example, they won 11 out of 13 last season against teams below the top seven and they won their only match in that category so far this season (2-1 against Crystal Palace).

That makes a home win against Hull highly likely and the odds on that outcome do not seem short enough at 1.434/9.

But the Asian handicap is an appealing option because of the regularity with which Arsenal win by clear-cut margins against teams like Hull. Since the start of last season, 10 of their 12 home wins against teams that finished outside last season's top seven have come by two goals or more. 

Taking into account all home results in that category (that is, with draws and defeats also included) Arsenal have a 71% strike rate of victories by two goals or more.

It is notable that Hull had precisely the same percentage rate of defeats by two goals or more when they visited the top seven last season - including a 2-0 loss at Arsenal.

The big problem for Hull is that they rarely keep a clean sheet on the road and conceding is usually fatal against the better sides. Their only away shutouts last season were against relegated Cardiff and seventh-bottom Sunderland and they lost nine out of 10 away to top-half teams.

Last season very few of the non-elite sides could stop Arsenal without a clean sheet. Home and away, the Gunners won 21 out of 25 when scoring against teams outside the top seven and 17 of those 21 wins were by two goals or more.

That is another indicator of the odds being in favour of a clear-cut Arsenal win and backing them off -1.5 on the Asian handicap will be a winning bet if they beat Hull by at least two goals.

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What has gone wrong with Everton? Probably not a lot, but if there is a serious issue it has to be their defence. They have leaked the highest number of goals in the Premier League this season (16 in seven games) and that is a problem because you have to go back 15 matches to March 30 to find the last Premier League match they won without a clean sheet.

The big opportunity for punters at the moment is to back over 2.5 goals in Everton's games. Twelve of their last 18 games have gone that way and it is interesting again in Saturday's home match against Aston Villa.

Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 10 of Everton's 14 home games under Roberto Martinez against the teams that finished outside the top seven last season. With no sign of that trend slowing (five of the last six in that category have been overs), the value bet is over 2.5 goals at 1.814/5. 

Recommended Bets
Back Arsenal off -1.5 on Asian Handicap v Hull at 2.111/10 (1pt)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Everton v Aston Villa at 1.814/5 (1pt) 

Andrew's 2014/15 P/L

Staked: 17 pts
Returned: 19.49 pts
P/L: +2.49 pts