Northern Ireland v Faroe Islands: Bank on more failure for inconsistent NI

Michael O'Neill has a poor record when his team are short in the betting

Lewis Jones has put on the table one of those bets that could make him look like a genius or a complete moron. He's envisaging a tricky night for the 1.292/7 hosts...

Northern Ireland v Faroe Islands
Saturday, KO 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 5

Northern Ireland

It is unthinkable for many people that Michael O'Neill's team will lose this fixture and put an end to their Euro 2016 qualification chances, especially after the excellent 2-1 Group F victory over Hungary in September - their first away win in four years.

Hungary forward Tamas Priskin forced in a close-range header from a corner 15 minutes from time to edge his side in front and the writing looked on the wall. But sub Niall McGinn levelled and Kyle Lafferty claimed the winner in the 88th minute, which may have saved O'Neill's job if some press reports are to be believed.

His tenure has been a wobbly one to say the least with an impressive victory over Russia and a battling point in Portugal overshadowed by defeats in Luxembourg and Azerbaijan.

But he has a chance to do exciting things in an open Group F (Greece, Romania, Hungary, and Finland) with a team that includes talent like Niall McGinn, Chris Brunt and Jamie Ward.

With the top two teams in the eight groups, along with the best third-placed side, all qualifying directly for the finals, there has never been a better chance for some of the lower ranked countries to progress. Defeat here would be a tough one to swallow.

Jonny Evans has been forced to withdraw from the squad ahead of the game due to an ankle injury but bar that O'Neill has a fully fit squad to choose from, including Evans' Manchester United team-mate Patrick McNair.

Faroe Islands

Who? What? Where? I hear you scream.

For those who don't know: this minuscule country is situated in the North Atlantic Ocean, halfway between Norway and Iceland with a population of just 45,000 people.

In truth, they are only recognisable at international level due to their horrendous record of results.

Ranked 179 in the world (sandwiched between the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Chinese Taipei), they have won just 18 matches in their history, achieved against the might of Malta, Luxembourg, Estonia, Canada and not forgetting the mightiest of them all, San Marino. They kicked off their Group F campaign with a 3-1 home defeat to Finland.

But as the headline suggests, I'm backing them to get a result here.

Match Odds

Calling the Faroe Islands a bogey-team for Northern Ireland is perhaps a little strong, but there aren't many other teams on the international stage that Lars Olsen's team have fonder memories of playing.

Opta tells us that Northern Ireland are unbeaten in their four previous internationals against Faroe Islands, and while that is absolutely a state of fact, two of those four meetings have ended with NI suffering dismal draws.

The first came in 1991 when Kri Reynheim's second half equaliser gave the hosts an unlikely point in Belfast. To put that into context, Faroe Island followers had to wait 20 games for the next time their team didn't suffer a defeat in a competitive match - a thumping 3-0 victory over fellow football juggernauts San Marino - and that 1-1 draw remains one of only six occasions from 59 matches that the Landslii have taken a point or more away from home in a competitive fixture.

Further embarrassment for the Green and White Army came in 2010 when they drew 1-1 in Toftir, where they were thankful for a 76th minute leveller from Lafferty. Since that game the Faroes have lost 13 of their 15 competitive internationals.

Despite this positive record when playing NI, it's hard to really make an outright strong case for an away victory here even at 15.014/1.

The Faroe Islands do have several players that play professionally around Europe, most notably Motherwell goalkeeper Gunnar Nielsen and teenager Brandur Olsen, who has just signed for FC Copenhagen, but the core of their squad is made of amateurs.

Teachers, construction workers, electricians, students and a magazine editor all will stride out onto the field Saturday evening, but to write them completely off is a wrong move in my mind.

The 6.611/2 for the draw has some scope, however, there is absolutely no way on earth I'd want to back this Northern Ireland side in a fixture of this nature at 1.292/7. It screams lay and that's the bet here.

Yes, it's the Faroe Islands, yes this Northern Ireland team is made up of high-quality professional footballers but O'Neill's team have kept just one clean sheet in their last 15 competitive internationals, including at home against Luxembourg (1-1), Azerbaijan (1-1) and Estonia (1-2).

A team with a home record of two wins from their last 17 matches are not to be trusted at skinny odds - even against the likes of Faroe Islands, who, it's worth pointing out, have actually scored seven goals in their last three away international fixtures. The value call has to be a lay on the hosts.

Recommended Bet
Lay Northern Ireland @ 1.292/7