ATP Erste Bank Open Betting: Crowd favourite Thiem a touch of value in Vienna

Dominic Thiem has the incentive to do well this week

The ATP World Tour returns to Europe in week 42, with three ATP 250 indoor tournaments in Austria, Russia and Sweden and Sean Calvert has two outright bets to consider this week...

The Erste Bank Open in Vienna, Austria has seen its field boosted by the entries of two wild cards for David Ferrer and Andy Murray, as the pair desperately chase points to try and qualify for the World Tour Finals.

Quite honestly, I wouldn't trust either of them at prices like the 2.75n/a on Murray and 3.7511/4 on Ferrer this week, despite their incentive to climb up the race charts ahead of the O2 and I prefer siding with the 26.025/1 on local boy Dominic Thiem.

Thiem was within a final set tie break of beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga here last year in the quarters and having improved immensely since then he can go a couple better in 2014.

He does have a potentially tough first round clash with Robin Haase, who made the final here last year, but Haase is in no sort of form at the moment, having lost to Radu Albot, Jesse Huta Galung, and Enzo Couacaud in his last three tournaments.

That's not to say that Haase can't have a great week again this week, but it seems unlikely, and Thiem can perhaps look ahead at other dangers in his draw, which include Philipp Kohlschreiber, Ivo Karlovic, Ferrer, and Martin Klizan.

Klizan has been in great form lately and could be a tough second round opponent, but there again, the Slovak could just as easily be taken down by Benjamin Becker in round one.

Klizan should have increased the pain of a losing run for Ferrer in Shanghai, but failed to serve out for a straight sets win, which in turn boosted the Spaniard to a win over a patchy Murray in the quarters there, but Ferrer isn't to be trusted at short prices.

The Spaniard has just one title to his name this season and that was back in week seven on the clay of Buenos Aires and he hasn't played on indoor hard for almost a year, plus he hasn't much time to acclimatise from the long journey from China.

Since Vienna was moved to week 42 of the tour from week 43 in 2012 the tournament has been won by Juan Martin Del Potro, who didn't play at all from week 37 to 42, and Tommy Haas, who withdrew from Shanghai after round two.

So, there's a little bit of a precedent to break if either Murray or Ferrer, who were quarter and semi finalists in China, are to win here and I would much prefer a fresher player at far larger odds.

Thiem went out of Shanghai in round two to Novak Djokovic and those few extra days could prove vital in combatting jet lag.

He'll certainly be confident, having almost beaten Murray indoors at the start of the year, and beaten Stan Wawrinka in Madrid, so he knows he can compete against the better players in quick conditions.

The bottom half of the draw could also offer some big priced value if you're prepared to go against Murray and another player who surely will be fatigued after Shanghai - not to mention injured - in Feli Lopez.

There could be opportunities for the likes of Vasek Pospisil and Lukas Rosol in that half and the Canadian could blow the bottom half wide open if he beats Murray first up.

Either Rosol at 40.039/1 or Pospisil at 29.028/1 could provide a good run for your money and they would be my picks against Murray and Lopez.

Over in Stockholm Jarkko Nieminen is always a tempting choice at a big price in what is effectively his home tournament, but I'm not sure the Finn has what it takes to go all the way and win these days.

Grigor Dimitrov is defending there, but he's not overly appealing at a price of 3.55/2 and neither is the favourite Tomas Berdych at 2.47/5 with his lack of titles.

I prefer taking a chance on another big priced choice in Moscow, where conditions are usually among the slowest on tour and that gives Juan Monaco a shot at 34.033/1.

Pico has a decent draw alongside the likes of Mikhail Youzhny, who, although he lost to the Russian last week, it was far quicker in Shanghai and Monaco could grind out a result there.

The Argentine should hardly fear the eccentric Italian Fabio Fognini either, with Fogna last seen leaving the Shanghai court with his middle finger extended after losing to the world number 553 Chuhan Wang.

Marin Cilic is the obvious favourite in that half, but how motivated is he likely to be on these slow courts after struggling following his US Open win?

Tommy Robredo looks another one whose motivation is likely to be lacking, having not played here since 2002 and he normally ends his season round about now in any case.

The latest that Tommy has ever won a title in any season was when he won Metz in week 40 of the 2007 season, while Monaco has made the Valencia final in the past and because of injury he only has 42 matches under his belt in 2014.

Robredo has played 59 matches this season and Cilic has managed 68 in comparison, so Pico may have the legs on some of the opposition.

Milos Raonic heads the betting in Moscow, but how fit is he after fever last week forced him out of Shanghai against Monaco and Ernests Gulbis has a shoulder injury, so perhaps Roberto Bautista-Agut could prove a better bet in the top half.

Recommended Bets
Back Thiem to win Vienna at 26.025/1
Back Monaco to win Moscow at 34.033/1