Opta Stats: Liverpool v Swansea City

Can Brendan Rodgers get one over his old club when Liverpool host Swansea?

Liverpool could move level on points with Swansea if they beat them at Anfield. Opta rates their chances.

After just one goal being scored in the first three Barclays Premier League games between Swansea and Liverpool, there have been 16 in the last three. Over 4.5 goals is 6.86/1.

There have been three goals scored in the opening five minutes of the last two league meetings between these two teams. The odds of the first-half containing more goals than the second are 3.185/40.

Brendan Rodgers was manager when Swansea were promoted to the Premier League and left in summer 2012 after the Welsh side's debut season in the competition. Rodgers' Liverpool side are 1.768/11 to beat his former team.

Daniel Sturridge has scored four goals in three Premier League games against Swansea City in a Liverpool shirt. With Sturridge injured, Swansea are 6.05/1 to keep a clean sheet.

Ex-Liverpool player Jonjo Shelvey has scored in both of his appearances for Swansea against his former club. Shelvey is 6.411/2 to find the net.

There have been three penalties in the last two Premier League games between Liverpool and Swansea at Anfield. The odds of a penalty being taken are 4.03/1.

Liverpool have won just two of their last eight Premier League games at Anfield (W2 D4 L2). The draw is 3.9n/a.

Last season's 3-4 defeat is the highest scoring away match that Swansea have been involved in away from home since they reached the Premier League (seven goals). Over 6.5 goals is priced at 40.039/1.

Victory over Hull last time out ended a run of six away matches without a win for the Swans away from home (D2 L4). They are 5.59/2 to win a second successive game.

Wilfried Bony has scored the first goal of the game in three of his last four starts away from home for Swansea. Bony is 8.27/1 to score the first goal.

Transfer Talk: Are Arsenal finally closing in on a powerful CM?

Oh Fernando, hopefully he has now found a home

Everyone knows that Arsenal need a Patrick Vieira type and they might finally be getting close to bringing one in. That and more rounded up by Alex Johnson.

Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger has agreed to meet Sporting Lisbon's 20million asking price for William Carvalho.

The 22-year-old midfielder has been subject to heavy interest from the Gunners for some time and has also been linked with Manchester United.

Arsenal appear to have taken the lead in the race for the player's signature however, with reports on Monday suggesting they will make a formal approach for him in January.

Talks broke down between the two clubs in the autumn, but it is thought Wenger has renewed hope of signing Carvalho following Sporting Lisbon's elimination from the Champions League at the group stage.

New Real Sociedad manager David Moyes wants to make Liverpool midfielder Emre Can his first signing in January.

The former Manchester United boss is preparing for his first transfer window in charge of the Spanish club and has set his sights on the Germany Under-21 international

The last of his three Premier League starts came in the defeat against Chelsea in early November and the Daily Mirror believes he could now be allowed to leave the club, despite arriving as a big-money signing from Bayer Leverkusen in the summer.

The same report claims Moyes is also monitoring Charlie Adam's situation at Stoke and is interested in a potential loan switch.

Elsewhere, Goal.com claims Chelsea are readying a 7.8million bid for Croatian forward Andrej Kramaric in January.

Stamford Bridge officials reportedly met with the player's agent and representatives from his club, HNK Rijeka, over the weekend to discuss terms.

Chelsea are believed to be very interested in the 23-year-old after sending scouts to watch him play in the Croatian top flight this season, where he is the top goalscorer with 21 goals in just 18 appearances.

Reports in Italy claim Liverpool right-back Glen Johnson will favour a move to Europe when his contract expires in the summer and Roma are the favourites for his signature.

The defender would join Ashley Cole at Stadio Olimpico, despite his former England team-mate's slow start to life in Serie A.

Finally, Fernando Torres is set to join Atletico Madrid on a loan deal until the end of the 2015-16 season.

The 30-year-old striker officially left Chelsea to join AC Milan on a permanent deal on Saturday, having spent the first half of the season on loan at the San Siro.

He will now spend the next 18 months at Atleti, the club where he started his career. The deal, which sees Alessio Cerci move in the opposite direction, is subject to Torres completing a medical in the Spanish capital.

This Week in Football History: Tottenham Hotspur 6-4 Reading

Dimitar Berbatov notched four of Spurs' goals against Reading

In today's edition of This Week in Football History, Adrian North recounts the tale of Reading's unfortunate battering at the hands Spurs, not three months after a similarly-sized reversal at Fratton Park...

December 29, 2007, White Hart Lane - Tottenham 6-4 Reading

The 2007/2008 season is best remembered as the first genuine three-horse race since the arrival of Roman Abramovich in 2004, Fulham's great escape from the certain doom of relegation, and the miserable tally of just 11 points racked up by Paul Jewell's Derby County - an unfortunate record that one assumes will stand for quite some time.  

Fulham's incredible escape saw them win all three of their final matches, against City, Birmingham and Portsmouth, and in their place relegate Steve Coppell's Reading, who seemingly suffered from one of the worst 'second season syndromes' in recent memory, dropping 10 places between the summers of '07 and '08, and finding themselves back in the Championship the following August.  

To go along with the agony of relegation endured by many of those from Berkshire, Reading set perhaps a more unwelcome and unbreakable record than Derby's measly 11 points.  

Reading scored four goals in a game on two separate occasions and lost both times.  

On September 29, 2007, Reading made the short trip to Portsmouth and shared 11 goals in a 7-4 loss in the highest scoring and perhaps most bizarre game the Premier League has seen. Benjani (remember him?) scored a hat-trick, David James and Marcus Hahnemann may as well have stood behind their respective goals such was their ineffectiveness (James did save a penalty as a measure of redemption) and once the score reached 4-2 it seemed every goal from then on was some jammy deflection.  

Three months later, on December 29, 2007, Reading went to north London, found themselves 4-3 up with 15 minutes to play before The Royals spectacularly collapsed in seven late second-half minutes. Dimitar Berbatov scored four for Spurs, and Dave Kitson grabbed a couple of Reading's strikes. 

Where the Portsmouth game was a debacle of lucky deflections and dodgy penalties, the 6-4 loss to Spurs wouldn't have looked out of place in the 1954 World Cup. The midfield was a largely pointless area of pristine grass and each goalmouth resembled scenes plucked straight from a Michael Bay flick.  

You know all those times when you say "That game really could have ended 6-4" - Well, this was that one time a game did end up with such a ludicrous scoreline.   

Opta Stats: Newcastle United v Everton

Having lost four games in a row, can Alan Pardew's Newcastle bounce back against Everton?

Everton could leapfrog Newcastle with a win at St James' Park. Opta weighs up their chances.

The last four meetings between Everton and Newcastle at St James Park have all seen exactly three goals scored. Over 2.5 goals is 2.0421/20.

Everton have won four and lost none of their last five Barclays Premier League meetings with Newcastle United. They are 2.68/5 to win.

Ross Barkley has scored in both of his Premier League appearances against the Magpies. Barkley is 4.67/2 to score.

Romelu Lukaku has netted four goals in four Premier League appearances against Newcastle, including three in two for the Toffees. Lukaku is 2.829/5 to find the net.

Everton have won three and lost just one of their last five Premier League trips to St James Park. The draw half-time/Everton full-time double result is 7.06/1.

There have been just seven goals scored in the last five Premier League games at St James Park with four of them ending with a 1-0 scoreline. Under 1.5 goals is 3.8514/5.

Everton have won just one of their last seven Premier League away games (W1 D2 L4), including losing the last three in a row. Newcastle are 3.02/1 to win.

The Toffees have lost just two of the last 15 away games in the Premier League against the three teams from the North East (W8 D5 L2). The odds of the draw are 3.45n/a.

The last three away games Everton have played between Christmas and New Year have all ended 1-1. You can back the score being 1-1 again at 7.413/2.

The Magpies have lost five of their last six matches at St James Park played between Christmas and New Year (W1 L5). Everton are 4.57/2 to win half-time/full-time. 

Football Bet of the Day: All aboard the Trapani train for one last trip

We're finishing the week in Italy

Kevin Hatchard's dreams of a perfect week have gone up in smoke, but he's hoping to finish the year in style with one last wager on his old friends Trapani.

Pro Vercelli v Trapani
Sunday December 28, 14:00

Our winning run had to come to an end at some stage, but when it did, it was in agonising fashion. Our boys Maccabi Haifa were 1-0 up with just eight minutes to go against Beitar Jerusalem, but having been reduced to ten men, the home side couldn't hold on. They collapsed to a 3-1 defeat, and our dreams of a perfect week were dashed.

This is my final entry into this column for 2014, and it will determine whether I finish in the black or the red, so I hope you'll indulge me by letting me return yet again to the Italian goal kings Trapani. We backed Over 2.5 Goals in their game against Avellino earlier this week, and they rewarded us with a thumping 4-1 win against a team that had kept back-to-back clean sheets.

Trapani have now seen 18 of their 20 Serie B games feature at least three goals, and they have both the best attack (36 goals scored) and the worst defence (40 goals conceded). They are currently seventh in the standings, but could rise all the way to second if they win today and other results go their way.

Trapani's opponents today are Pro Vercelli, and they are leaking plenty of goals at present. They have shipped 14 goals in their last eight games, but they've only failed to score twice in that sequence. Six of their last nine league games have featured three goals or more.

Regular readers will know that I've been banging on about Trapani for ages, but the market is only now adjusting to the trend. Over 2.5 Goals has routinely been trading at above evens in Trapani games, but even though it has come down to 1.9420/21, it's still a great bet.

To all of you who have visited this column in 2014, I hope you've enjoyed reading it as much as I've enjoyed writing it, and I hope you've managed to make some money along the way. Forza Trapani!

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9420/21

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 76

Points Returned: 76.12

P/L: +0.12 points

Against All Odds: Fulham's goal trend to continue

We're craving goals at the Cottage this evening

There are usually goals when Fulham are involved and Paul Robinson thinks it will be the same again this evening when Brighton are in town.

Fulham v Brighton
Monday December 29, 20:00 GMT

Following their relegation from the Premier League last season, Fulham haven't exactly lived up to their expectations of being one of the favourites for promotion. Felix Magath may be long gone but The Cottagers are still down in 16th place in the division - a dozen points adrift of the play-off places.

It doesn't take a genius to know where the problem lies, as with 41 goals conceded, only Huddersfield have a poorer defensive record. Kit Symons' side don't have those problems at the other end however so if they tighten up at the back, promotion might not be out of the question. 

They are the eighth highest scorers in the division and that has led to their games averaging 3.3 goals each time. A massive 15 of their 23 fixtures have rewarded under 2.5 goal layers and that includes their five most recent at Craven Cottage.

Opponents, Brighton, narrowly missed out on promotion last year and it's highly likely that they'll miss out again as at the halfway point of the campaign, they sit second from bottom. Sami Hyypia resigned prior to their last match and, as of writing, the position is still vacant.

In their first game since he departed, The Seagulls came from behind to draw 2-2 with Reading. That match obviously featured three goals or more, as have four of their last six. The recent stats make even more appealing reading if we narrow them down to their results on the road as away from The Amex three of their last four have gone over 2.5, and that includes a 3-2 defeat and a 3-3 draw.

It's hugely surprising that under 2.5 goals is odds-on given the teams involved, which is why, with it trading at around the 1.9110/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Fulham v Brighton @ 1.9110/11

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 347 pts
Returned: 366.34 pts
P/L: + 19.34 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Derby v Leeds: Rams to spring out of the blocks

Steve McClaren's Derby side simply look too strong for Leeds on current form

Andy Tongue is keen to finish on a high in the year's final live Championship game and thinks he has found a couple of winning bets for us at decent prices...

Derby v Leeds
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Derby

The Rams' mini-stutter of late had been available for all to see with three of their games televised in December. At Middlesbrough they were out-thought and outplayed in a 2-0 defeat before a slightly hesitant performance at home to Norwich saw them concede a late equaliser as they had to settle for a 2-2 draw. In between, Steve McClaren's side acquitted themselves perfectly admirably in a 3-1 defeat at home to Chelsea in the Capital One Cup.

However, plenty of nerves of the East Midlands will have been settled by that comprehensive 4-0 win at improving Birmingham on Boxing Day, where County showed the range of attacking options they possess and illustrated why, in my opinion, they just about have the edge over the likes of Middlesbrouogh, Ipswich and Bournemouth as the best all-round side in the division.

That win at St Andrew's looks even better in the light of the Blues' subsequent 3-1 triumph at Nottingham Forest and McClaren is likely to select an unchanged side here, with the visit of non-league Southport in the FA Cup on Saturday giving him the opportunity to rest a few first-choice players.

Leeds

We also had the chance to see Leeds in action recently and they earned a slightly fortuitous point at Nottingham Forest just over a week ago. The home side felt aggrieved to have had two goals ruled offside - both debatable decisions- although Neil Redfearn's men showed admirable resilience to equalise in the second-half and hold off a late barrage for the 1-1 draw.

That was followed by a very disappointing 2-0 home defeat at the hands of Wigan on Boxing Day, which leaves them in 20th place very much now looking down at the sides below them in the relegation battle. Away from home though they have just the one win all season (at Bournemouth back in mid-September), illustrating the scale of the task they face here.

They are also one of three clubs under a transfer embargo in Janaury, due to failing FFP rules so Redfearn is going to have to make do with what he has in his squad and won't be able to bring in any new faces.

Half Time/Full Time

Derby are available to back at 1.558/15 and given the side's respective results on Boxing Day and United's away form that price won't put off the bigger players and forms a pretty attractive win double with red-hot Ipswich, who are at home to Charlton on Tuesday evening as well.

However, I like to look for something that returns at least double our stake if possible as the recommended best bet and the Half Time/Full Time market catches my eye. Derby have been out of the blocks quickly at the iPro Stadium in the past couple of months, leading at the break in each of their last five league games.

With Leeds' poor away form and the general lack of spine about the visitors currently, the 2.35/4 about Derby/Derby looks pretty attractive.

Redfearn has been adamant that he won't change his footballing principles despite the poor returns away from Elland Road this season but this will probably play into Derby's hands here. In a pure footballing match, I make them the best side in the division, despite the recent wobble, and if a struggling  side comes to the iPro and tries to outplay them I think there will be only be outcome - a comfortable home win.

Match result/Both teams to score

Despite their poor points return, Leeds have actually found the net in each of their last six away games and they have only failed to find the net on their travels once since the opening day of the season. The problem has obviously been at the other end of the pitch where they've not managed a single clean sheet away from Elland Road all season.

With Derby the division's top scorers in front of their own fans and possessing players in the front five or six positions who can all hurt the opposition then we should expect goals here. Chris Martin is the second highest-scorer in the division with 14 goals and Johnny Russell is in the best form of his career at the iPro.
Derby to win and both teams to score can be backed over at the Sportsbook at 3.39/4 and that's also worth backing here.

Recommended Bets

Back Derby/Derby at Half Time/Full Time at 2.35/4
Back Derby to win and both teams to score on Betfair sportsbook

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 82.5 pts
Returned: 83.06 pts
P/L: + 0.56 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets

Premier League Weekend Review: Battling Burnley can keep on running to safety

Sean Dyche has got plenty to be pleased about

While other managers moaned about the Christmas fixture list, Burnley's Sean Dyche got on with it and his players showed it was possible to handle two games in 48 hours. Ralph Ellis says it augurs well for their fight to escape relegation...

There's a huge division among football folk about the value of statistics. There are clubs who employ fleets of analysts to pore over running data and passing percentages and then decide which players they should buy. And there are the old school men who insist the only judgement that counts is the one made through experienced eyes.

They are probably both right. While sports like athletics can be measured in terms of how far, how fast or how high, football is far more an art than a science. But there are times when the stats can reinforce the message that your eyes are telling you.

And that is certainly true of Burnley who have reached the half way mark of the Premier League season with far more chance of surviving than most people - including myself - ever gave them.

The EA Sports running data of the Christmas games tells a fascinating story about the work ethic in the dressing room at Turf Moor. Collectively, on Boxing Day, Burnley's players ran a total of 74.2 miles as they went down unluckily by a single goal to Liverpool.

Two days later, while almost every other manager in the top division was moaning about the unfair demands placed on players to appear twice in 48 hours, Sean Dyche's team went to the champions Manchester City. It was the sort of tough fixture in which some lower clubs might have taken the chance to make a host of changes to rest top players for a New Year's Day trip to Newcastle.

Not down-to-earth Dyche, though. He picked an unchanged team, then watched them run further and faster (a total of 74.5 miles) to fight back from 2-0 down to earn a point. Midfielder George Boyd, who had topped the Premier League running stats on Boxing Day with 8.1 miles, did exactly the same distance again.

Back in July when Burnley were trawling through the bargain basements to spend only a fraction of the Premier League millions they had just earned by gaining promotion, I wrote that the lack of quality would kill them. It couldn't be possible to last in the modern top flight on industry and effort alone.

I'm beginning to wonder if I was wrong, and if laying Burnley while they are 1.538/15 favourites for relegation could be the smartest move as the January window prepares to open.

While other clubs are getting into panic mode - Palace have just sacked Neil Warnock, West Brom might follow the same lead with Alan Irvine - Burnley are beautifully stable. They know their plan, they trust their manager, and their players know their jobs.

Danny Ings and Ashley Barnes have both shown evidence that they are adapting to the demands of a higher division when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net. Sam Vokes, who had hit 20 in the Championship by March last year before getting injured, is just returning to action. And in Boyd they have the top division's answer to Forrest Gump.  His best is currently 8.29 miles in 90 minutes, unmatched by any other Premier League player.

With half a season to go Burnley can get better, and their belief and willingness to fight together for lost causes might just make up for the lack of star names. The stats say so, and the eyes are beginning to agree.

Liverpool v Swansea: Monk's men to cause Reds more Anfield frustration

Swansea's Wilfried Bony could cause Liverpool big problems

Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers faces his old protege Garry Monk on Monday night at Anfield, and Kevin Hatchard believes the apprentice could defy the master.

Liverpool v Swansea
Monday, December 29, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Liverpool

Liverpool are like a rock band who had a massive hit album, but then the bad-boy frontman left, and no way has been found to replace him. The style of the music has been changed too much, and even though the band's manager is constantly tinkering in the studio with bells and whistles, the right rhythm remains elusive.

Although Liverpool emerged from their Boxing Day trip to Burnley with a 1-0 victory, they performed disappointingly. Raheem Sterling's goal was delightful (the Philippe Coutinho pass to release him was sumptuous), but it came against the run of play, and Burnley created enough chances to take at least a point.

The most alarming thing for Liverpool fans to see at Turf Moor was the complete lack of confidence of keeper Simon Mignolet, who replaced the injured Brad Jones. A spell on the bench hasn't refreshed him, it's pushed him deeper into the abyss of self-doubt. At Turf Moor he saw a kick charged down, he misjudged high balls, and at one stage he inexplicably allowed a ball that was travelling fairly slowly to cross the by-line before he cleared it.

If Liverpool are to close the gap between themselves and the top four, they must improve their home record. Opta tell us they have won just two of their last eight Premier League games at Anfield, and in their last eight home games in all competitions they have scored just seven goals. They have beaten Swansea once already at Anfield this season, but they were 1-0 down with four minutes left before a late rally saw them make progress in the League Cup.

Brendan Rodgers is likely to persist with a three-man defence. Glen Johnson and Dejan Lovren are still out, so Mamadou Sakho should continue alongside Martin Skrtel and Kolo Toure. Sterling is likely to be utilised as a striker once again, with Mario Balotelli kept on the bench.

Swansea

Swansea's Garry Monk was a player under Rodgers at the Liberty Stadium, and after a near-miss in the League Cup he gets another chance to get one over on his old boss. Monk has done a fine job, steadying the ship last season after the turbulent departure of Michael Laudrup, and keeping the Swans well clear of the relegation scrap this term. Swansea are currently three points and a place above Liverpool in the standings, and another win on Monday night would cement their place in the top eight.

Monk has used his vast experience as a central defender to drill his team and keep them organised, and they have the best defensive record outside the Premier League's top four. They have conceded just 19 goals, a record only bettered by Chelsea, Manchester City and Southampton. Swansea have kept clean sheets in their last two matches, beating both Hull and Aston Villa 1-0.

Although Swansea will almost certainly be without the elusive running of Ecuador winger Jefferson Montero, their dangerous duo Gylfi Sigurdsson and Wilfried Bony are both fit. Sigurdsson has scored four goals and produced eight assists this season, while Bony has banged in eight goals and set up two more.

Bony scored twice at Anfield in last season's 4-3 win for Liverpool, and Opta tell us he has scored the first goal in three of his last four starts away from home. His movement is excellent, and I can see him slipping through the gaps in that three-man Liverpool defence.

Match Odds

Although Liverpool have put in some decent displays in recent weeks, I can't support them at 1.738/11. You never know what type of performance Liverpool will produce on home soil these days, and even when they do have the upper hand, they often squander good chances or give poor goals away.

Swansea came close to winning at Anfield in the League Cup, and although their general away record isn't great (just two wins in eight games), they won't go to Liverpool with any fear. If they can play their possession football and frustrate, then they can neutralise the home crowd and use their speed and invention on the break. I think the Swans can nick a result, and a low-risk lay is the way to go.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Opta tell us there have been 16 goals in the last three Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Swansea, and the two teams shared three goals in that League Cup tie back in October.

On that basis, you might be tempted to go for Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9310/11, but I'm actually leaning the other way. Swansea haven't scored more than once on their travels since a 4-2 defeat at Chelsea in September, while I've already alluded to Liverpool's offensive failures at Anfield. I think this could be a tight game, so I'm backing unders at 2.0621/20.

To Score

Wilfried Bony hasn't scored in his last two games, but he's had success at Anfield before, and he is having a superb season overall. 2.829/5 for the Ivorian to score at any time looks generous.

Raheem Sterling scored twice against Bournemouth in the League Cup and netted the winner against Burnley, and he is 2.3811/8 to find the net again.

Recommended Bets
Lay Liverpool at 1.738/11
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0621/20
Back Wilfried Bony to score at 2.829/5

The Big Match Tactical View: Liverpool v Swansea

Can Garry Monk get the better of old boss Brendan Rodgers?

Both these sides recorded narrow victories on Boxing Day, and will be hoping to end 2014 with a victory. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, and Alan Thompson assesses the odds...

Liverpool v Swansea
Monday 8:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Liverpool 1.758/11, Swansea 5.59/2, The Draw 4.03/1.

The final Premier League match of 2014 is an interesting clash between Brendan Rodgers and one of his former players at Swansea, Garry Monk. Tactically, both managers will be keen to wrestle control of the midfield zone.

This will be the key battleground, but it's not necessarily where the game will be won and lost. Liverpool have generally been extremely good in midfield over the last month or so, but have dropped points because of poor finishing, dodgy defending and goalkeeping errors. Between the boxes Liverpool are fine, but at either end they've been desperately poor.

Rodgers cannot guarantee his side will dominate the midfield against Swansea, however. Monk wasn't quite Rodgers' successor - Michael Laudrup came between them - but hehas effectively continued with the blueprint that earned Swansea promotion to the Premier League under Rodgers.

That means plenty of patient possession play, holding onto the ball for long periods deep in midfield, and therefore Liverpool might find themselves frustrated in the early stages. Compared to their last home game against Arsenal, when Liverpool were totally dominant despite needing a stoppage time equaliser from Martin Skrtel, Rodgers' side might spent longer periods defending.

Weirdly, that might actually help Liverpool. In recent weeks, Rodgers' approach has been a 3-4-3 system with Coutinho and Adam Lallana floating behind Raheem Sterling, and attempting to hit through-balls beyond the defence for Sterling to break into.

Clearly, Sterling's speed makes this a viable approach, but only really if the opposition defence are positioned high up the pitch, and that's unlikely if Liverpool have endless spells of possession.

For example, Sterling was significantly more dangerous against Manchester United, when Liverpool played directly on the break, than against Arsenal when Liverpool pushed back the opposition. His finishing still needs work, but recent goals against Bournemouth and Burnley show he's starting to become a serious threat.

Rodgers is unlikely to make major changes to his side. The front three seems set in stone, the midfield has been working well, so the only question mark is at the back, where Dejan Lovren might not be fit. Simon Mignolet should start in goal, having replaced Brad Jones against Burnley on Boxing Day.

Swansea are also unlikely to make major changes for this game, following two consecutive 1-0 victories. Jefferson Montero is a doubt on the left flank, which could mean a return for Wayne Routledge, but perhaps a more important tactical decision is in the centre of midfield.

Jonjo Shelvey will be keen to start in a deep midfield role against his old side, but Monk might consider using either the returning Leon Britton or even young Tom Carroll - they provide more reliable ball retention skills in deep positions.

Swansea's key, however, is Gylfi Sigurdsson at the top of the midfield triangle. He hit the winner against Villa on Boxing Day with a fine free-kick, and only Cesc Fabregas has recorded more Premier League assists this season. Liverpool can be vulnerable to players positioning themselves between the lines of midfield and attack, and Swansea will be keen to supply Sigurdsson whenever possible.

The other interesting zone is the Swansea wide players, who must make a decision about whether to track Liverpool's wing-backs, or remain in a position to counter-attack. The former is more likely, and therefore Swansea's attacking transitions will be crucial: they must work the ball forward quickly, allowing the attacking players to break at speed against Liverpool's back three. Jordan Henderson and Lazar Markovic, the wing-backs, must play solid defensive roles.

I'm finding this game extremely difficult to predict. It feels like the worse Liverpool play, the more points they collect - and while the tactical battle suggests goals, both sides won 1-0 in their previous game. Liverpool look too short at 1.758/11, though, so I'll lay the home side.

Recommended Bet
Lay Liverpool at 1.758/11

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

These two have already clashed at Anfield once this season in the Capital One Cup, where Liverpool eventually ran out 2-1 winners. Despite going a goal behind in the 65th minute, The Reds rallied and scored twice in the final four minutes to progress; they are now in the semi-final where they await Chelsea.

Both sides recorded league victories on Boxing Day, Brendan Rogers got back to winning ways at Turf Moor (0-1) ending a three game winless streak and The Swans will travel to Merseyside also on the back of 1-0 win after beating Aston Villa at home. That Swansea goal means they have now scored in each of their last eight Premier League starts, only Manchester City (15) and Arsenal (11) can better that goal-scoring sequence.

Gary Monk’s side, this season, have not been behind in an away game at the half time interval (D6: W2) and that includes playing away at the top three. Liverpool have been drawing at Anfield at the break in their last five games. In fact the only game Liverpool haven’t been drawing at the interval in their last 11 league starts was at Old Trafford (2-0 HT).

I will be backing DRAW in the Half Time market at anything around 2.4. I also think that Swansea could take the lead in this, and as Wilfred Boney has scored the opener in three of his last four away starts, I will be looking to back him in the First Goalscorer market at 8.0 or above.

The Big Boxing Day Multiple: West Brom to deliver a knockout blow

Alan Irvine can mastermind a shock win

It wouldn't be Christmas without a Big Boxing Day Multiple from Paul Robinson. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: West Brom (HOME) @ 6.0 (5/1)  

This might seem like a strange choice but I genuinely think West Brom are decent value to pull off a shock win today. They may have been beaten 3-2 at QPR last time out but they led 2-0 before collapsing, and prior to that, they had beaten Aston Villa and earned a solid point away at Hull.

Manchester City come into the game as the form team of the division having won their last eight matches in all competitions. The last four were all to nil and while they've been very impressive, I still have my concerns about their ability to get the job done without the services of Sergio Aguero, Edin Dzeko, Stevan Jovetic and Vincent Kompany.

Bet 2: Liverpool (AWAY) @ 1.72 (8/11)  

It has been a disappointing campaign for Liverpool thus far but there have been signs recently that last year's runners-up are heading in the right direction. They played well at Old Trafford in defeat before easing past Bournemouth and drawing with Arsenal at Anfield. 

The new formation that Brendan Rodgers has come up with seems to be working and The Reds have now actually lost just one of their last eight fixtures in all competitions.

Burnley have picked up in the last couple of months after a woeful start to their season. A victory over Hull was the catalyst for a four match undefeated streak, although it has to be noted that The Clarets have now lost two of their last three outings.

Bet 3: Everton v Stoke (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.2 (6/5)  

Hosts Everton fell to their poorest defeat of the year at the weekend as they were soundly beaten 3-0 at Southampton. Roberto Martinez will be desperate for a reaction from his players after that and I think he might get one.

It's the goals we're interested in today though and half a dozen of their nine at Goodison Park have rewarded over 2.5 backers. They have kept only two clean sheets but have had no problems racking up the goals at the other end as The Toffees have netted 16 times this term.

Stoke had made a bright start to their campaign but one win in six has checked their progress somewhat. The one win was against Arsenal - a 3-2 success - but they were also beaten by Burnley, Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea. 

As far as the goals go, four of their last seven on the road have had three or more and their attacking options are much improved compared to recent years. They also don't focus as much on defence under Mark Hughes and that should help our selection as well.

Bet 4: Sunderland v Hull (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 (4/7)  

If ever a match had under 2.5 goals written all over it, it's this one. Sunderland have scored 15 and conceded 24 so far this season, which gives their matches an average of 2.29 goals each time. They have had five 0-0s and 11 of their 17 have had two goals or fewer.

Interestingly, Hull City have exactly the same stats in terms of goals as Sunderland as they have also scored 15 and conceded 24. A total of 10 of their outings have rewarded under 2.5 backers, including their four most recent ones. 

Steve Bruce's men have mustered just the one goal in their last five on the road but aside from three conceded at Old Trafford, they let in no more than two in the other four matches.

Recommended Multiple

Back West Brom @ 6.0 (5/1); Back Liverpool @ 1.72 (8/11); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Everton v Stoke @ 2.2 (6/5); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Sunderland v Hull @ 1.57 (4/7); The Multiple pays approximately 35.65 (35/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 51 pts
Returned: 100.57 pts
P/L: + 49.57 pts
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

January Targets: Who should be targeting who next month?

Petr Cech will be heavily linked with a move in January

January is a time for a bargain but not when it comes to footballers in the main but who could be out there?

Christmas may be the most wonderful time of year, but for the Premier League clubs the sooner the festivities are done the better.

A barrage of fixtures while the rest of us are enjoying good tidings means Premier League players and managers don't really get to indulge in the spirit of the season of goodwill.

A new year brings with it the opening of the January Transfer Window and a chance to chase down much needed reinforcements to right the wrongs of the early season or keep the dreams alive.

We take a look at some potential January transfer match-ups.

Wilfried Bony - Swansea City

Suitors: Liverpool, Man City, Spurs

The Ivory Coast international has scored more Premier League goals in 2014 than anyone else.

That feat is more remarkable when factoring in that Bony did not hit the net in any of Swansea's first six games this season. Since then it has been raining goals, with eight in his last ten games.

Garry Monk will be wary of offers for his prolific 26-year-old but as he enters the peak years of his career, Bony will we on many wanted lists - both in England and further afield.

If he is to make a move within the Premier League, goal-shy Liverpool could be first in line. Brendan Rodgers needs a prolific striker to replace Luis Suarez and Mario Balotelli is not the answer.

Mauricio Pochettino is already talking of protecting Harry Kane from an unwanted burden of leading the line at Spurs while injuries to their three main strikers could tempt champions Man City into a bid for Bony.

Petr Cech - Chelsea

Suitors: Liverpool, Real Madrid

Cech is simply too good and too young to warm the bench at Stamford Bridge.

The trouble for Jose Mourinho is that in Thibaut Courtois he has one of the most talented, young keepers in the world on his books.

The Belgian has been given the gloves this season and January could see 32-year-old Cech agitating for a move.

Liverpool do not have their problems to seek, but with Simon Mignolet dropped at Old Trafford, the Reds appear to have lost patience in their goalkeeper.

Whether they can afford Cech's wages is less clear.

Iker Casillas' World Cup performances seemed to confirm that the Spanish legend is on the wane and with just about everything at the Bernabeu in perfect order, Guus Hiddink may choose to recruit someone of Cech's proven quality.

Marco Reus - Borussia Dortmund

Suitors: Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Real Madrid

His recent injury record notwithstanding, the 25-year-old German winger looks set to become one of the hottest transfer properties available.

Dortmund are once more consigned to losing their star turn, whether that be in January or next summer.

Reus missed the World Cup with injury and was sidelined again in November with an ankle problem. He is due to return early in the New Year by which point he could be the subject of some hefty advances.

As wingers go, Reus has the lot. Pace, trickery, two-footed and he scores goals.

At Chelsea he could enjoy the sort of success Arjen Robben did in his early 20's. Ironically, Bayern may step up their pursuit of Reus should the Dutchman leave. Madrid don't technically need Reus, but that usually doesn't stop them and they have been linked with the player.

Morgan Schneiderlin - Southampton

Suitors: Tottenham, Arsenal

Schneiderlin did his utmost to engineer a move away from St Marys in the summer. The 25-year-old Frenchman clearly believes he has outgrown the south coast club during his six years.

Ronald Koeman blocked his move to Spurs in the summer and, to the player's credit, he has knuckled down to the job at hand this season.

His performances during Southampton's rise to second place in the table have arguably strengthened his hand in terms of the clubs that will look to lure him away.

Either of the north London clubs could use a player of his ilk.

Mauricio Pochettino knows the player which could count for something but with Mikael Arteta's contribution at the Emirates ever diminishing Arsene Wenger will be monitoring his compatriot's situation closely.

Schneiderlin wants Champions League football and the lure of Arsenal would be hard to resist for both he and Southampton.

Jackson Martinez - Porto

Suitors: Tottenham, Liverpool

The Columbian international was one of many players in his national side to impress at the Word Cup in Brazil and the Porto striker is now being heavily linked with a move to the Premier League.

The 28-year-old has a terrific scoring record since moving to Europe, hitting the net 56 times in 72 appearances for the Primeira Liga outfit.

Porto's qualification for the knockout stages of the Champions League should have poured cold water on any suggestion Martinez would leave the Estadio do Dragao but reports in Portugal are suggesting Tottenham are going to make a major play for Martinez in January.

Liverpool have also been widely linked with the player as Brendan Rodgers looks likely to cut his losses on misfit striker Mario Balotelli.

The same press reports suggest Mauricio Pochettino will attempt to offload Emmanuel Adebayor and Roberto Soldado to make his move for Martinez.

Diego Godin - Atletico Madrid

Suitors: Manchester United, Arsenal

Having lost Thibaut Courtois and Diego Costa from his La Liga winning team already, the last thing Diego Simeone wants is another raid on his Vincente Calderon squad.

That is exactly what he could face in January and Uruguayan international centre-back Diego Godin is first in line.

The 28-year-old made his name in Spain at Villarreal before switching to Atletico four years ago and he became a crucial part of the side that won the title and reached the Champions League final last season.

Both Manchester United and Arsenal have failed to convince at the back this season.

Despite a huge summer outlay, Louis van Gaal is set to have cash to spend once again in January although whether he will meet the 28m release clause for Godin remains to be seen.

Arsene Wenger is under pressure. He has the attacking quality but defensively Arsenal have been a shambles at times.

A no-nonsense, rock solid central defender is on the wish list and Godin fits the bill.

NBA Head Trader has his say on the Western Conference

With the NBA regular season just passed the ¼ pole stage our lead NBA trader gives his thoughts on the Western Conference teams performance so far. Do you agree with our NBA odds-maker?

Western Conference: Southwest

Dallas Mavericks: Tyson Chandler has been a vital stud in his return to the Mavs. Dallas has an awesome offense, but will their defensive shortcomings have them finish 7th or even 8th in the West?

Houston Rockets: The Rockets have really improved their defence and are a team playing hard despite missing a number of key players throughout the season from injury.

Memphis Grizzlies: Marc Gasol is benefitting well from his agro dietary shift and the Grizzlies look set to win 60+ games despite their limited opportunity to reach the Finals.

New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Davis is the only real positive. If any starter misses a game, their weak bench is very exposed.

San Antonio Spurs: ebbing and flowing...a little "champions' malaise" and some injury stuff to work through...keep in mind though it's only December.

Western Conference: Northwest

Denver Nuggets: Bounced quickly from their cliff-jumping phase, now they have regressed to an average performance, as expected.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Injuries have crushed this team more than the loss of star Kevin Love to the Cavaliers. The recent home loss to the 76ers was the clincher.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Durant and Westbrook are back and they are already just 1.5 games out of the 8th seed slot. Many speculated that's the best they could hope for, but the Mavs might be vulnerable to their charge or even the Spurs if injury games mount for key players. With good health, the Thunder would be the most dangerous lower seed since Olajuwon's Rockets in the 1995 playoffs.

Portland Trail Blazers: In the offseason the bench was shored up with the addition of Kaman and Blake. They are very tough most nights, and have made a great start to the season. They can get you early in games, or more than likely, late.

Utah Jazz: Coach Snyder is trying but is he good enough? His team are very young and not very deep. Hayward is stronger and better, but could be worn down the longer the season progresses.

Western Conference: Pacific

Golden State Warriors: Freaking awesome. The team have made an unbelievable start to the season, and look the team to beat so far.

Los Angeles Clippers: Shook off their early lethargy and now look like last season’s team with their relentless offense most nights.

Los Angeles Lakers: It's Kobe's world and at times not centered just his high volume, low percentage shooting or the Lakers' D, as in "What D?"  Swaggy P. keeps things fun and sometimes dangerous for opponents - just ask the Spurs.

Phoenix Suns: Last year they rode the wall of damnation, then mere doubt all the way to the brink of the playoffs. The pressure feels different this year, and their on going lack of an adequate inside presence torments them. With the Thunder poised to overtake them soon, it will be interesting how morale and energy hold up over the months, even with a solid Coach in Hornacek and a good core.

Sacramento Suns: They made a very impressive start until Cousins became ill recently. Cousins has matured massively, and the whole team seems to be buying into what Coach Malone is selling now. Another positive is youngster McLemore has stepped up.

Opta Stats: Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion

Can West Brom get a win over Stoke to lift the pressure off Alan Irvine?

The wrong result against Stoke could see West Brom drop into the relegation zone. Opta provides the vital statistics.

Stoke City have won six and lost just one of the 10 Barclays Premier League meetings with West Brom. Stoke are 1.9210/11 to win.

However, West Brom are unbeaten in their last four Premier League trips to the Britannia Stadium (W1 D3 L0). The draw is 3.613/5.

The Baggies have only scored four goals in 10 Premier League games against the Potters. Stoke are 2.3811/8 to keep a clean sheet.

There have been just six goals scored in the five Premier League games between Stoke and West Brom at the Britannia Stadium. Under 2.5 goals is 1.758/11.

Stoke City have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last four Premier League games at the Britannia Stadium. They are 9.617/2 to win 2-0.

West Brom have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away matches (W2 D2 L7). Stoke are 3.211/5 to win half-time/full-time.

The Baggies have scored just five goals in their last 10 Premier League away games and failed to score in six of those matches. Under 1.5 goals is 3.259/4.

West Brom have won only five away games in the last two seasons of the Premier League and all by a one goal margin. They are 13.012/1 to win 1-0.

West Brom have won just one of their 10 Premier League matches away from home between Christmas and New Year (W1 D3 L6). The draw half-time/Stoke full-time is 5.14/1.

Against All Odds: Saints to march on at St Mary's

Graziano Pell will be rubbing his hands together at the thought of taking on a weary John Terry

It's Southampton against Chelsea this afternoon and despite their odds-on quote, Paul Robinson thinks that the leaders will fail to take all three points.

Southampton v Chelsea
Sunday December 28, 14:05 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1

The Saints are back on track following their run of five straight defeats in all competitions. A 3-0 success over Everton restored the confidence of the players and they followed that up with a 3-1 win at Crystal Palace on Boxing Day.

Ronald Koeman's side are now back in the top four of the Premier League and while I don't expect them to be there at the end of the season, they deserve their place at the moment.

A trip to St Mary's wouldn't have been what Jose Mourinho was looking for just 48 hours after a match with West Ham and only four days before they visit White Hart Lane. 

The Blues may have won their last five in all competitions but if we look at their last five away results in the Premier League, we can see that they've actually only recorded two victories.

A defeat at Newcastle doesn't make great reading and they didn't perform too well in their draws at Manchester United and Sunderland. It's also worth noting that while John Terry has earned many plaudits lately, he isn't getting any younger and it will be interesting to see with how he copes with such little recovery time.

Southampton are capable of giving anyone a game on their day and as they have home advantage, I think they can earn a result this afternoon. That's why, with Chelsea trading at around the [1.92} mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea v Southampton @ 1.9210/11

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 346 pts
Returned: 364.31 pts
P/L: + 18.31 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

This Week in Football History: The Christmas Truce

The Christmas Truce took place on Christmas Day, 1914

In today's special Christmas Day edition of This Week in Football History, Adrian North takes us back to the famous Christmas Truce between British and German troops during the Great War...

December 25, 1914 - The Christmas Truce   

Everyone knows the story - On Christmas Day, 1914, British and German troops laid down their weapons, promised each other not to open fire at any point during Christmas, and ended up playing a huge football match against one another. 

First off, the simple fact there was a Christmas truce during a continent-wide industrial war, the likes of which the world had never remotely seen before, is an utterly and completely amazing thing, and to my mind, an entirely inconceivable thing. How can two groups of soldiers, stationed for four straight months in some of the worst conditions imaginable and tasked with the job of killing the enemy at any cost simply pack all that in for a day to sing Christmas songs and play a game of football? The Christmas Truce truly is one of the most incredible things to have happened in the past 100 years.  

Of course, 12 months later in 1915 the scale of the First World War was almost infinitely larger than in 1914. Millions had died and prejudices and hatred ran too deep. By 1918, and especially by 1945, after everyone on Earth had witnessed in some form or another the absolute 'banality of evil' the fact there was a Christmas truce in 1914 would seem like pure fiction to many ears.   

But the letters home from those stationed in the trenches not only reveal that for one day the two teams of war put aside their goal of systematic annihilation, but that the two sides of war decided to form teams of an entirely different nature - football teams.  

Christmas 1914 was the first and only time during the First World War in which it seemed the ongoing mindless horror had a chance of ending. Many neutral nations, including the United States, and even the Pope had all encouraged a Christmas truce between the combatants ever since the fighting began.  

On Christmas Day munitions supplies were interrupted by a swathe of Christmas presents, cards, food and drink being delivered to both front lines, along with a huge number of Christmas trees being sent to many German trenches. Formal truces had already been made on Christmas Eve but the fraternising between the British and Germans was an entirely spontaneous occurrence.  

Christmas songs sprang up from both trenches and the mood in the air was one of sentimentality, sorrow and reflection. After a while soldiers began to stretch their legs out in no-man's land.  

The primary source of evidence we have for the events of Christmas Day, 1914 are from letters sent home from the troops and from newspaper reporting, particularly in England from the time. 

On January 2, 1915, the Bolton Chronicle published a letter from a Mr J.A.Farrell - "In the afternoon there was a football match beyond the trenches, right in full view of the enemy". It would seem that Mr Farrell was describing a kickabout between fellow English soldiers, but without any Germans taking part and several other letters sent home from the lines also claimed that football matches between the two sides were often on the verge of being organised before it fell through.  

However, there is more than enough compelling evidence that describes such socialisation over football taking place. 

On January 9, 1915, The Chester Chronicle published a letter from a Lance Corporal Hines who claimed he had met a German in no-man's land who exclaimed he wished to one day see Woolwich Arsenal play Tottenham.
Earlier in January however, The Times published the most compelling account we have of such a football game. They revealed letters from the Royal Army Medical Corps that described a game taking place between themselves and the Germans 133rd Saxons, who ironically sang "God Save The King" before playing a game that the Germans won 3-2. The German regimental records for the 133rd Saxons confirm that such a game happened with "caps laid out for goals and a Scot provided a ball".  

But this wasn't the only game of football to have cropped up on Christmas Day 1914. On December 31, 1914, The Newcastle Evening Mail published an interview from a Sergeant Major Frank Naden of the 6th Cheshire Territorials, stationed just outside of Ypres, Belgium, who had just returned to Newcastle on leave.  

"On Christmas Day one of the Germans came out of the trenches and held his hands up. Our fellows immediately got out of theirs, and we met in the middle, and for the rest of the day we fraternised, exchanging food, cigarettes and souvenirs. The Germans gave us some of their sausages, and we gave them some of our stuff. The Scotsmen started the bagpipes and we had a rare old jollification, which included football in which the Germans took part. The Germans expressed themselves as being tired of the war and wished it was over. They greatly admired our equipment and wanted to exchange jack knives and other articles. Next day we got an order that all communication and friendly intercourse with the enemey must cease but we did not fire at all that day, and the Germans did not fire at us"  

Frank Naden's account is backed up by another member of the 6th Cheshires, Ernie Williams who in 1983 recalled the same events.    

"The ball appeared from somewhere, I don't know where, but it came from their side - it wasn't from our side that the ball came. They made up some goals and one fellow went in goal and then it was just a general kickabout. I should think there were about a couple of hundred taking part".  

So it would seem that the evidence favours at least two instances of informal games of football played between German and British troops on Christmas Day 100 years ago and this one day of socialising, drinking and playing football led to an extended period of ceasefire among many of the front line trenches. The same Frank Naden who recalled the game of football later said that no firing from either side took place on the 26th, and his report is one of dozens from along the front lines that all said pretty much the same thing. In many areas the truce extended to just beyond New Years Day. 

The legacy of the Christmas Truce sadly remains as one-off, one-day peace deal between belligerents of war rather than the catalyst for the for the disengaging of the bloodshed that the Pope and Americans had wished it to be.  

Football quickly vanished from the trenches, replaced by an ever increasing body count, but where the front lines no longer saw any impromptu matches football was heavily played in training centers, drill squares, factories and POW camps. Over the course of the next four years millions of able-bodied young men were placed into the theatre of war via the training camps and drill squares, where the passion for football was at its most fervent. 

Before this football had strictly been a game of the elite, played by the rich upper class and watched by the rich upper class. With the mobilisation and employment of almost all of Britain's working class in the war effort the final sociological barrier that had seen football remain as a game for the wealthy had been broken. 

And if there is any silver lining to be taken from the First World War it is that during the four years of warfare footballing seeds were being planted that would eventually grow to see football become not only a simple favorite pastime of the British, but eventually a cultural cornerstone in just about every corner of the world. 

By 1918, football was the 'Peoples' Game' for the first time.

Chelsea v West Ham: Hammers to park bus and frustrate Mourinho again

Allardyce will be more than happy to revert to last season's tactics and aim for a point at the Bridge.

The league leaders host this season's surprise package in Boxing Day's early game, but Jaymes Monte expects the Hammers to revert to type in search of a vital point...

Chelsea v West Ham
Friday December 26th, 2014
Sky Sports 1

Chelsea

I'm not one that usually sympathises with managers' complaints about the scheduling of football matches. However, it does seem a little harsh to me that Chelsea should be asked to play Boxing Day's early kick-off after also playing Monday night's game. That said, if anyone has the squad to cope then it's the league leaders.

Jose Mourinho hailed the spirit and mentality of his team after the 2-0 triumph at the Britannia, claiming that it was a victory worth more than just three points. And it certainly had that feeling about it. Although Mourinho's comments were coated with sly digs at Stoke's style of play it was a performance and result that reinstated the Blues as firm title favourites.

John Terry became the 13th Chelsea goalscorer in the Premier League this season with the opener on Monday night, further dispelling any lingering myths that this team are in any way reliant on Diego Costa - who, incidentally, has scored just one in his last six.

The hosts could, however, be without second-top scorer Eden Hazard this Friday after the Belgian limped off in injury time of Monday night's game with an ankle problem.

West Ham

A run of four wins and one draw in their last five matches has moved West Ham up to fourth position in the Premier League table and seen them wrestle 'this season's surprise package' tag from a faltering Southampton.

The Hammers have lost only once in their last 11 Premier League fixtures and are already just nine points shy of last season's total points haul (40). But they now must guard against stumbling in the same pitfalls as the Saints did earlier this month, as a couple of games against last season's top four follow in quick succession.

Andy Carroll has now scored three in his last three games, including his first goal that wasn't a header in over a year, while Stewart Downing has doubled his tally for the season with two in his last two starts.

Match Odds

As good as West Ham have been this season, their away form still makes for fairly average reading with three wins, three draws and two defeats from eight Premier League fixtures. While Chelsea's home record remains an immaculate eight wins from eight with only three goals conceded and 20 scored.

The Blues are also unbeaten in their last nine Boxing Day games (W5, D4), while Sam Allardyce has only managed to negotiate two wins from 21 Premier League games against Chelsea as a manager and he has never outwitted Mourinho to take all three points. Although Big Sam has manufactured three draws at the Bridge, including last season's infamous goalless draw.

It will be interesting to see how Allardyce sets his team up this weekend. Will he go with the more adventurous outlook that has moved his team into the top four of the Premier League? Or will he revert to the set up that successfully thwarted Chelsea here last season?

If it's to be the former, then odds of 1.351/3 on a home win look to be about right. But if, as I presume, The Hammers are capable and willing to grind out a result and set up with two banks of four on the edge of the box - i.e. park the bus again - then there has to be a bit of value in either taking the draw at odds of 5.69/2 or simply laying Chelsea at 1.351/3.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

A lot here again depends on how West Ham approach this game. If they open up then I have no doubt that Chelsea will be able to pick them off, and also wouldn't be surprised to see the Hammers get on the scoresheet, making Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75/7 a safe play.

But, like my play on the Match Odds, I'm going to take a chance on the fact that Allardyce is a savvy man and knows all too well the might of Chelsea. I also think that, like he did last season, he would revel in seeing Mourinho becoming increasingly frustrated at being unable to break through a robust Hammers defence. Therefore, I'm going to take another chance and back Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.47/5. A repeat 0-0 scoreline can be backed at 18.017/1.

Recommended Bets
1pt Lay Chelsea @ 1.351/3
1pt Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.47/5

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 41.0 pts
Returned: 36.88 pts
P/L: -4.12 pts

Opta Stats: Tottenham to follow away win template

Christian Eriksen is a solid sidekick in Spurs' Harry Kane Show

The Boxing Day Opta stats bring good news to Southampton, Tottenham and quite possibly West Ham...

All matches are at 15:00 on Boxing Day unless stated

Chelsea v West Ham (12:45, Sky Sports 1)

Chelsea's last five Boxing Day matches have seen a total of just six goals scored

Nothing that Chelsea have produced on Boxing Day in recent times has rivalled 2007's 4-4 draw with Aston Villa for entertainment and their Stamford Bridge scraps with West Ham aren't usually high on goals either. Neither of the latest two went over 2.5 goals - with last season's 0-0 draw inspiring Jose Mourinho's "19th-century football" critique of Sam Allardyce's side - and only two of the last seven did.

Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.47/5

Crystal Palace v Southampton

Saints have won the last five league games against Crystal Palace without the Eagles finding the net

Southampton are back folks, with a timely reprisal of the 3-5-2 formation that worked so well for Ronald Koeman at Feyenoord delivering a 3-0 victory over Everton. Despite that and a P9 W6 D2 L1 record against bottom-half clubs, the Saints are above evens to triumph at Crystal Palace, who are pointless against top-six opposition (five defeats) and have lost four in six at home to teams above them.

Recommended Bet: Back Southampton to win @ 2.186/5

Leicester v Tottenham

In the last four meetings between these two sides, the team scoring first failed to go and win (D1 L3)

Tottenham now have an established formula for away Premier League combat which has yielded three wins in four. It always involves a 2-1 scoreline and frequently task them with rallying from 0-1 down, often encouraged by a reckless sending off for an in-the-ascendancy home player. Leicester's combination of five successive reverses but only two blanks fired in the process indicates that they will play their part perfectly.

Recommended Bet: Back Tottenham to win and both teams to score @ 3.9n/a

Sunderland v Hull

There have been six red cards in six Premier League meetings between these two sides

While the accepted protocol for booking Christmas holiday as a footballer is to be dismissed in the game before, earning a three-match ban that sees you out until the FA Cup third round, an early Boxing Day bath has plenty of merit too, potentially gifting you until January 10 off. With a ridiculous five sendings off in the previous three league Black Cats-versus-Tigers dogfights (well, feline fights), expect someone to violently submit their application for leave.

Recommended Bet: Back there to be a sending off @ 4.3100/30

Football Bet of the Day: Listing Lierse to carry on sinking

Club Brugge are Belgium's league leaders

Kevin Hatchard's having a merry Christmas when it comes to tipping, and he hopes to extend his winning run today with a selection from the Belgian top flight.

Lierse v Club Brugge
Friday December 26, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

I hope you all enjoyed your respective Christmas Days. I had a fine festive 24 hours, although it is extraordinary how kids amplify each other's voices. Between the four of them (not all mine, thank heavens), they made more noise than an Apache Gunship. I was mock-stabbed and mock-beaten to a pulp many times - it was like a remake of Highlander.

One set of people who didn't really have fun yesterday were Manisaspor, as they lost 9-0 at Trabzonspor in the Turkish Cup. That's right - (NINE), as the Vidiprinter would have written it (look it up, kids). Although I'm happy the result led to our fourth winner in four days this week, I was a bit annoyed that I wasn't a bit braver than an Over 2.5 Goals bet. Ah well, no harm done.

We're spending our Boxing Day in Belgium (wait, where are you going? Come back!) and a clash between Lierse and Club Brugge. Lierse are rock-bottom of the top-flight standings, while Club Brugge will be top of the pile regardless of today's result.

Lierse have had a nightmarish campaign. They have won just three of their 20 league matches, no-one has conceded more goals than they have (41), and they have collected just two points from their last nine outings. Their most recent league match was an unmitigated disaster, as they were demolished 6-0 at Sporting Charleroi, a game that saw them go 2-0 down in eight minutes.

Club Brugge are solid but unspectacular on their travels. They have lost just one of their ten road matches, but have only won four. However, we can take encouragement from the fact that three of those wins came from the last five away games, so maybe Michel Preudhomme's men have learned how to turn draws into wins outside their comfort zone.

All four of Club Brugge's away wins have come by a margin of two goals or bigger, and I anticipate a similar result here against a terrible Lierse side. We can use the Asian Handicap to drag the odds above evens. If Club Brugge win by two, it's a winner. A one-goal win returns half our stake. Anything less, and it's an outright loser.

Recommended Bet

Back Club Brugge -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.07n/a

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 74

Points Returned: 74.05

P/L: +0.05 points

Overs or Unders: Burnley and Liverpool to trade Boxing Day blows

Raheem Sterling could enjoy himself at Turf Moor today

Neil Harvey's here with four Over/Under 2.5 Goals recommendations from today's Premier League programme...

Burnley v Liverpool  15:00   

An extremely thirsty Brendan Rogers will be drinking at the last chance saloon here, as he takes his Liverpool side to Lancashire in dire need of a convincing win. The signs and reports in the last couple of weeks have been that Liverpool are finally getting their act together and have found the formation and line-up to get the best out of their squad. Whether that's true, we should find out on Friday afternoon.

What we don't need any confirmation of though, is that when the Reds play on the road, there are almost always goals. Of Liverpool's last 26 Premier League away games, 23 had three goals or more. There's not really any more we need to know. But the fact that Rogers' side are desperate to put on a good show can only help.

The fact that Burnley have scored in their last six straight league games at Turf Moor only adds to the goalscoring mix. The Clarets also need a result to aid their survival bid and should have the confidence to go for it, against what has been an ailing Liverpool of late.

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.814/5

West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City   15:00 

Manchester City are going to take this title race to the wire. Nobody can convince me otherwise on this. And I don't see West Brom being able to stand in their way. City have scored 21 goals in nine league away games - the most in the division. West Brom have conceded 13 times in nine games at the Hawthorns - giving them the joint worst home record in the Premier League.

The fact that City are bereft of fit strikers didn't hold them back last week, as the pressure built from midfield, resulting in three second half goals against Crystal Palace. And the Baggies, who've conceded at least two goals to six of the nine teams they've hosted, have shown nothing this season to suggest they can withstand City's attacking talents. West Brom's only hope would seem to lie in fighting fire with fire. Alan Irvine's side are, after all, scoring more than a goal a game themselves at home on average, which has resulted in the majority of those matches being high-scoring.

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9010/11

Crystal Palace v Southampton   15:00

Exactly half of Crystal Palace's home games have been low-scoring, i.e. contained two goals or less. Meanwhile Southampton's away games have been even less exciting, with 75 percent of them short on goals. And that includes their last five matches in a row, which yielded a miserable six goals between them. For whatever reason, the brakes have been applied to the Saints' forward play. Consequently, we see the goals drying up, and Southampton slipping down the table.

The fact that Ronald Koeman's side have failed to score in their last two away games, including at Burnley last time, must be a concern for him. And things will get no easier at Palace, who have been proving harder to open-up than a Christmas walnut of late. Both these team are more adept at defending than they are at attacking. Indeed, neither team has managed to score more than a solitary goal in any of their last five league matches - a run I don't expect to end here.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.654/6

Swansea City v Aston Villa   15:00

Swansea and Aston Villa find themselves being drawn together from opposite ends of the Premier League standings, seemingly destined to end the season locked in mid-table oblivion, with both sides being pulled there by their lack of goals. More than half of Swansea's home game have been low-scoring at the Liberty Stadium, while Aston Villa have produced six low-scoring games from eight on the road, including their last five in a row.

Swansea have been been tough to break down at home, conceding just seven goals in nine matches. So it's hard to imagine Garry Monk's side suddenly crumbling in the face of a Villa team that's netted just four goals on the road. Paul Lambert's side are proving similarly stubborn though. Given a goals record of 4-10 away from home, it's incredible to think Villa have taken points from more than half those matches, showing just how defiant they can be. So I'm expect a scrappy, spoiled encounter here, with two goals at the most.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.784/5

2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 60pts
Returned: 62.57pts
P/L: +2.57

Australian Open Betting: Hard working Murray could hit the ground running

Amelie Mauresmo being coached by Loic Courteau - they are teaming up again to help Andy Murray

Andy Murray is beefing up his coaching team for the new season by taking on experienced Frenchman Loic Courteau. Ralph Ellis says he likes the way Britain's top tennis star is attending to the details...

The signs are it will be a stellar year for Andy Murray. Or at least that's what his official website says, and you'd like to think they've got some inside info. Britain's number one, they say, has "powered his way up the rankings showing signs of his usual brilliance."

But while the gushing writers employed by his agents are full of confidence, it seems the man himself is a darn sight harder to please. He's picking over the things that went right and wrong in 2014 and planning ways to make sure the new year is a whole deal better.

These are always vital weeks in Murray's routine, when he takes himself off to Florida for a brutal pre-season prgramme that sets the base for everything to come. At 27 he's now got the maturity to know that what you get out is only ever what you put in, and the preparation when nobody is watching in December is what helps you get through when the season starts for real in January.

A big boxing fan, he recently retweeted a quote from Lennox Lewis: "Hard work can get you in the game but it's the details that will put you over the top." It's a good maxim and it's clear that Andy is working at the details.

The latest change is the recruitment of 50-year-old former French Davis Cup coach Loic Courteau who is expected to sign up to work alongside Amelie Mauresmo. He was the man who inspired Mauresmo to her Wimbledon win in 2006 - the year she also won the Australian Open.

It's not a done deal yet. Courteau, currently contracted to take care of fellow Frenchman Julien Benneteau, has said he wants them to "make me an offer that I can't refuse". But the hot gossip on the tennis circuit is that talks with his former pupil went so well that he's pretty much agreed to make the move.

Murray is 13.5n/a to win the Australian Open and that's a tempting price, even if Courteau won't be on the team by then because he will still by tied by his current contract with 33-year-old Benneteau, who has just enjoyed the best season of his career.

Melbourne is a favourite tournament for him.  He got to three finals in four years from 2010 onwards, and even last year, when he was only half-fit after recovering from back surgery, made it to the quarters.

This season his campaign starts on January 1st when he opens the Mubadala World tennis championship in Abu Dhabi against Gael Monfils, and the plan is to hit the ground running there in time to reach Australia in peak form.

Bringing Courteau onto the team confirms that Mauresmo is calling the shots now after their success together in the latter part of last season. Murray might have run out of steam when he got to the World Tour Finals, but his effort in reaching the O2 was a fine endorsement for her work.

Of course the shadow of world number one Novak Djokovic still looms over every contender. He is 2.26/5 favourite to triumph in Melbourne. But Murray has proved before that he can beat the mighty Serb and if he's fit and refreshed, he can do it again.

Yes, it could be a stellar year for Britain's top player. After all his own website says so.

Chelsea v West Ham: Hammers to park bus and frustrate Mourinho again

Allardyce will be more than happy to revert to last season's tactics and aim for a point at the Bridge.

The league leaders host this season's surprise package in Boxing Day's early game, but Jaymes Monte expects the Hammers to revert to type in search of a vital point...

Chelsea v West Ham
Friday December 26th, 2014
Sky Sports 1

Chelsea

I'm not one that usually sympathises with managers' complaints about the scheduling of football matches. However, it does seem a little harsh to me that Chelsea should be asked to play Boxing Day's early kick-off after also playing Monday night's game. That said, if anyone has the squad to cope then it's the league leaders.

Jose Mourinho hailed the spirit and mentality of his team after the 2-0 triumph at the Britannia, claiming that it was a victory worth more than just three points. And it certainly had that feeling about it. Although Mourinho's comments were coated with sly digs at Stoke's style of play it was a performance and result that reinstated the Blues as firm title favourites.

John Terry became the 13th Chelsea goalscorer in the Premier League this season with the opener on Monday night, further dispelling any lingering myths that this team are in any way reliant on Diego Costa - who, incidentally, has scored just one in his last six.

The hosts could, however, be without second-top scorer Eden Hazard this Friday after the Belgian limped off in injury time of Monday night's game with an ankle problem.

West Ham

A run of four wins and one draw in their last five matches has moved West Ham up to fourth position in the Premier League table and seen them wrestle 'this season's surprise package' tag from a faltering Southampton.

The Hammers have lost only once in their last 11 Premier League fixtures and are already just nine points shy of last season's total points haul (40). But they now must guard against stumbling in the same pitfalls as the Saints did earlier this month, as a couple of games against last season's top four follow in quick succession.

Andy Carroll has now scored three in his last three games, including his first goal that wasn't a header in over a year, while Stewart Downing has doubled his tally for the season with two in his last two starts.

Match Odds

As good as West Ham have been this season, their away form still makes for fairly average reading with three wins, three draws and two defeats from eight Premier League fixtures. While Chelsea's home record remains an immaculate eight wins from eight with only three goals conceded and 20 scored.

The Blues are also unbeaten in their last nine Boxing Day games (W5, D4), while Sam Allardyce has only managed to negotiate two wins from 21 Premier League games against Chelsea as a manager and he has never outwitted Mourinho to take all three points. Although Big Sam has manufactured three draws at the Bridge, including last season's infamous goalless draw.

It will be interesting to see how Allardyce sets his team up this weekend. Will he go with the more adventurous outlook that has moved his team into the top four of the Premier League? Or will he revert to the set up that successfully thwarted Chelsea here last season?

If it's to be the former, then odds of 1.351/3 on a home win look to be about right. But if, as I presume, The Hammers are capable and willing to grind out a result and set up with two banks of four on the edge of the box - i.e. park the bus again - then there has to be a bit of value in either taking the draw at odds of 5.69/2 or simply laying Chelsea at 1.351/3.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

A lot here again depends on how West Ham approach this game. If they open up then I have no doubt that Chelsea will be able to pick them off, and also wouldn't be surprised to see the Hammers get on the scoresheet, making Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75/7 a safe play.

But, like my play on the Match Odds, I'm going to take a chance on the fact that Allardyce is a savvy man and knows all too well the might of Chelsea. I also think that, like he did last season, he would revel in seeing Mourinho becoming increasingly frustrated at being unable to break through a robust Hammers defence. Therefore, I'm going to take another chance and back Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.47/5. A repeat 0-0 scoreline can be backed at 18.017/1.

Recommended Bets

1pt Lay Chelsea @ 1.351/3
1pt Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.47/5

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 41.0 pts
Returned: 36.88 pts
P/L: -4.12 pts

Opta Stats: West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City

Will Manchester City be celebrating after their game with West Brom?

Manchester City will be looking to continue their fine form against struggling West Brom. Opta rates their chances.

West Bromwich Albion have won just one of their eight Barclays Premier league games played on Boxing Day (W1 D2 L5), but are unbeaten in their last three. The draw is 4.57/2.

Manchester City have won five and lost just one of their last seven Boxing Day fixtures. City are 1.564/7 to win.

Man City have won eight and lost none of their last nine Premier League matches against West Brom (D1). They are 2.3411/8 to win half-time/full-time.

Former Man City defender Joleon Lescott has scored in two of his last three Premier League matches against the Citizens. Lescott is 19.018/1 to score.

Edin Dzeko has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games against West Brom, including two match-winning goals. With Dzeko injured, WBA are 7.26/1 to keep a clean sheet.

Manchester City have won the last 18 Premier League matches that Yaya Toure has scored in. Toure is 2.77n/a to score.

West Brom have won just four home league games in 2014. Hull (3) are the only ever-present Premier League team to have won fewer in this period. The Baggies are 3.7511/4 to be relegated.

Fernandinho has never played in a 0-0 draw in the Premier League (47 games). Radhi Jaidi (61) is the only player to have played in more without ever being part of a stalemate. Both teams to score is 1.9210/11.

Craig Dawson (2) is the only WBA player other than leading scorer Saido Berahino (7) to have netted more than once in the Premier League this season. Seven players have scored once. Dawson is 10.09/1 to score.

18 year-old Jose Pozo, City's youngest player this season, was born one month and 15 days after Frank Lampard made his Premier League debut for West Ham (31st January 1996). Lampard is 3.55/2 to find the net.

The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2014/15: Rounds 18 & 19

Austin's QPR look an excellent price to beat Palace on Sunday

With the Premier League fixtures coming thick and fast over Christmas it's a bumper Betting Battle for the editors, with two picks each. Can Joe Dyer retain his lead? Can Dan Thomas end his losing run? Read on for their festive bets...

Round 18 - Boxing Day fixtures

Joe Dyer
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Everton v Stoke @ 2.186/5
Boxing Day, 15:00

Neither of these clubs is playing to their potential this season and they meet on Boxing Day with the home team 11th and Mark Hughes' visitors 13th. 

Previously known as defensively strong, the pair have kept a remarkable poor five clean sheets between them (Everton three and Stoke two) so there's every chance both sides could get on the scoresheet on this festive Friday. 

And if either gets one I'm pretty confident the other side can get two or more - a root through both teams' results shows plenty of high-scoring affairs. Roberto Martinez has repeatedly shown his liking for goals and attack while Hughes is obviously trying to make Stoke a little more three-dimensional than previous Potters' Premier League incarnations. I also imagine Hughes will be desperate for a reaction after his team were schooled by Chelsea on Monday night. 

Basically, while there's every chance of a stinker here, the price on Overs looks a tiny bit generous so in a game between two poor defences and with some quality attackers on show, I'll take a chance on a few net ripplers.  Well, more two-and-a-half of them anyway.

Joe Dyer 2014-15 P/L +14.50

Mike Norman
Back Tottenham @ 2.0811/10 to beat Leicester
Boxing Day, 15:00

Tottenham have won nine of their last 13 league games, they have won four of their last six away from home, and in Harry Kane they have a bang in-form striker playing with lots of belief and confidence.

Leicester are in dreadful form, taking just two points from the last 36 available to them and losing nine of their last 10 league games. They are rock bottom of the Premier League table and struggling for goals.

For the above reasons I'm very surprised that Spurs aren't odds-on to win this game. Consider that Southampton - on a losing run - were just 1.84/5 away to in-form Burnley a few weeks ago then hopefully you'll understand why I think Mauricio Pochettino's men are excellent value here.

Spurs have won at Aston Villa, Hull, and Swansea in recent weeks. Are Leicester any better than any of those sides? I say no, and I'm extremely happy to be able to back Tottenham at 2.0811/10 to confirm my belief.

Mike Norman 2014-15 P/L: -16.60

Luke Moore
Back Both Teams to Score in Man United v Newcastle at 1.8910/11
Boxing Day, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

They didn't score in the Tyne-Wear derby, but I think Alan Pardew's Newcastle are well worth a goal at Old Trafford on Boxing Day. Like the rest of the football watching public, I haven't been hugely impressed with Manchester United's rearguard so far this season and, although they are powerful going forward, they couldn't defend Dunnottar Castle.

That's why I think BTTS is a solid bet here and I'm more than happy with the price. Joe Dyer - I'm coming for you. And after that, Mikey Norman is next...

Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L: -27.60

Dan Thomas
Back Tottenham to beat Leicester 2-1 at 9.617/2
Boxing Day, 15:00

I've followed trends, I've followed stats, I've followed in-form teams and opposed out-of-form ones but I still can't pick a winner. So it's time to bring out the big guns and a Correct Score bet to kick-start my recovery.

As Mike points out in his Boxing Day preview, an incredible seven of Tottenham's last nine Premier League games have ended up with a score of 2-1 to either team so nearly 9/1 on it happening again is tempting enough.

An away win looks more likely than a Leicester victory given the form of either side so I'm going for 1-2 and hoping for a much needed Christmas bonus.

Dan Thomas 2014-15 P/L: -92.70

********

Round 19 - Sunday (December 28) fixtures

Joe Dyer
Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 9.5n/a in Aston Villa v Sunderland
Sunday, 15:00

It doesn't take a genius to foresee a low-scoring affair when Villa meet Sunderland, so why not go wild and try to hit a chunky winner for a real festive season boost to the betting bank?!

At the time of writing, Sunderland have already been involved in five nil-all draws this season, four of which came away from home. Costel Pantilimon's introduction to the first team has made the Black Cats a defensive force with the Romanian keeper shutting out the opposition in four of his eight games. 

Villa don't have such a strong trend for the goalless games - just two this season - but after 17 Premier League fixtures they are the division's lowest scorers with a paltry 11 goals. Crucially they don't concede many either and have developed a strong backbone in recent weeks. After finally ending their six-game September to November losing streak Paul Lambert's side have given up just four goals sin their last six matches. 

Of course it's not ideal to put up this sort of bet in this competition and I'd love to insert a Cash Out disclaimer to accompany my bet, but I can't so it'll just be me praying for a bore-draw when these two meet on Sunday. 

Joe Dyer 2014-15 P/L +14.50

Mike Norman
Back QPR @ 2.47/5 to beat Crystal Palace
Sunday, 15:00

I'll keep this one very short and hope that it turns out just as sweet.

QPR are excellent on home soil and score bags of goals, and against an out of form relegation rival I'm surprised that we can back them at 2.47/5 to record another win at Loftus Road.

For the record it's four wins and a draw for Harry Redknapp's men from their last five home games, but what is very impressive is that they've scored at least two goals in each of their last seven matches in front of their own fans, including two against Liverpool and two against Man City.

Palace have won just one of their last 11 league outings and away from home they've scored just one in their last four matches. Given QPR should be good for at least two goals then a home win is a confident selection.

Mike Norman 2014-15 P/L: -16.60

Luke Moore
Back Man City-2 v Burnley at 2.15n/a on the Sportsbook
Sunday, 15:00

I realise that Man City have a problem with a lot of their strikers being injured, but I don't think they'll have a serious problem scoring a few against Burnley. 

The Clarets have a reputation of being a pretty solid defensive unit, but that's mostly at home. Away from Turf Moor they've conceded more than a hatful and it's hard to imagine them being able to deal with City's movement and power through the midfield.

Of course, I won't get anything like the price I want on City without a decent handicap, but I'm happy to take -2 at an odds-against price of 2.15n/a.

Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L: -27.60

Dan Thomas
Back a draw in West Ham v Arsenal at 3.7511/4
Sunday, 15:00

This is a slightly risky pick given the respective team's Boxing Day fixtures - Arsenal could well be in confident mood after a probable comfortable win against QPR with the Hammers likely to be coming off a defeat at Stamford Bridge - but with my P/L in such a sorry state I need to take risks and I'm happy to go on the longer form line.

West Ham have won six of the last seven at Upton Park, including impressive victories against Man City and Liverpool, and have a number of players at the top of the game, most notably Stewart Downing who has been a revelation in a central role.

They face an Arsenal side whose away record is patchy, combining disappointing defeats at Stoke and Swansea with good wins at West Brom and Galatasaray, and an ultimately infuriating dropped two points at Anfield last time out.

One suspects both managers will be happy with a point with winnable games coming up afterwards (West Brom and Southampton respectively) and so will I.

Dan Thomas 2014-15 P/L: -92.70

A 10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

Editors 2014/15 Season P/L

1. Joe Dyer: +14.50
2. Mike Norman: -16.60
3. Luke Moore: -27.60
4. Dan Thomas: -92.70

Opta Stats: Chelsea v West Ham United

Will Jose Mourinho be full of Christmas cheer after Chelsea's game with West Ham?

West London meets East as first-placed Chelsea host fourth-placed West Ham. Opta are on hand with all the stats.

Chelsea are unbeaten in their last nine Barclays Premier League games played on Boxing Day (W5 D4). They are 1.351/3 to win.

Chelsea's last five Boxing Day matches have seen a total of just six goals scored, since their famous 4-4 draw with Aston Villa in 2007. Under 2.5 goals is 2.466/4.

Defeat to Arsenal last season ended a run of three consecutive Premier League wins on Boxing Day for the Hammers. West Ham are 11.010/1 to get back to winning ways. 

Sam Allardyce has managed just two wins in 21 Premier League games against Chelsea (W2 D6 L13). Chelsea are 1.981/1 to win half-time/full-time.

Allardyce has no wins against Jose Mourinho in the competition (D3 L5), but his three draws have all come in away games (in four visits to Stamford Bridge). The draw is 5.85/1.

Chelsea have won 12 and lost just one of the last 16 Premier League games against the Hammers (D3). The draw half-time/Chelsea full-time is 4.67/2.

West Ham last won in the Premier League at Stamford Bridge in September 2002 (3-2), but since then have lost six of eight visits (D2) and scored just three goals. They are 1.8810/11 to win to nil.

Loic Remy has scored in both of his previous Premier League games against West Ham. Remy is 2.111/10 to score.

The Hammers have failed to score in four of the last five Premier League games against Chelsea. Under 1.5 goals is 5.24/1.

Jose Mourinho has a record of five wins and no defeats in six Premier League matches as a coach against West Ham. A 2-0 Chelsea win is 7.613/2.

Boxing Day Lays: Fulham to fluster flying Bournemouth

Four teams have earned more home Championship points than table-topping Bournemouth

Michael Lintorn has found three Football League clubs to lay on Boxing Day: Bournemouth, Oldham and York...

Lay Bournemouth to beat Fulham @ 1.75/7

The final weekend before Christmas went delightfully for Bournemouth, as they thrashed Blackpool 6-1 away and their Championship co-leaders Middlesbrough were beaten by Ipswich. However, their recent home form is a concern: they have won just one in four in front of their fans, even suffering the indignity of a loss to Liverpool in the Capital One Cup! They conceded ten goals in that sequence.

Only Bournemouth and Brentford have collected more points than Fulham over the past 14 games, with the relegated west Londoners recovering from an abject start by winning eight and drawing three in that period. They have also prevailed on successive road trips in the same season for the first time since May 2011.

Lay Oldham to beat Crewe @ 1.695/7

Hands up if you're gagging to back the club who shipped 11 goals without a response in their past two games at odds-on. At home to bottom of the league is supposedly the easiest fixture on the list, but do you really want to side with an Oldham team who were thrashed 0-4 when hosting 22nd-placed Yeovil and then surrendered 0-7 at MK Dons?

Despite being a point off the play-offs, the Latics lost to both of the two drop-zone dwellers that they entertained and have failed in four attempts to defeat a bottom-six side at SportsDirect.com Park. Crewe meanwhile are fresh from conquering pacesetting Bristol City and have endured a mere three League One reverses in ten.

Lay York to beat Accrington @ 2.111/10

York boss Russ Wilcox likely asked Santa for a home league win, with his team the only one in the top seven divisions of English football yet to achieve one. Even absolute masters of low-point accumulation like Leicester, Blackpool and Hartlepool have earned at least one, whereas York have flopped ten times, plus twice more in cup competition.

Worse still, they are regressing rather than improving, losing consecutive Bootham Crescent clashes for the first time all campaign this month. Accrington are 11 places and ten points better off, so the extent of their outsider-dom is bizarre, particularly as they have won in 12 against clubs below them.

Arsenal v QPR: Redknapp's away woes to continue

This man will not be beaten on Boxing Day

The Premier League Boxing Day action concludes at The Emirates and Paul Robinson is taking Arsenal to keep QPR at arms-length...

Arsenal v QPR
Friday December 26, 17:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1

An injury time Martin Skrtel header denied Arsenal their third successive victory in all competitions but it wouldn't have been deserved as they were outplayed for most of the game. Nevertheless, a point isn't a bad result at Anfield and despite it being a relatively poor campaign to date, The Gunners are through to the last 16 of the Champions League and only five points adrift of Manchester United in third place.

A home fixture against a team in the bottom five is all that Arsene Wenger could have asked for this Christmas and I would be very surprised if his side can't take the three points with relative ease. 

Following their disappointing defeat to Manchester United in November, Arsenal have beaten Bourssia Dortmund, Southampton and Newcastle in front of their own fans. Their record at home might not be quite what it should be for a club of their stature, but their problems have usually come against the better teams in the division.

Queens Park Rangers have managed to drag themselves out of the relegation zone but that is purely down to their form at Loftus Road. Away from home they have lost all eight of their Premier League fixtures and they were even knocked out of the Capital One Cup at Burton Albion.

Charlie Austin may be flying but only two of his 11 goals have come on the road and the only other player to net for them is Bobby Zamora who scored a late consolation at Goodison Park last time.

Harry Redknapp will be telling his team that this is a free hit as nobody expects them to take anything from the game, but even with the pressure off, it's hard to see anything other than a defeat for a team who haven't even managed a draw on their travels this term.

Match Odds
Arsenal 1.282/7 QPR 14.5n/a The Draw 6.411/2

No surprises here as the hosts are long odds-on and while I won't be recommending a lay at the prices, I'm not one to tip 1.282/7 shots. Given QPR's struggles in front of goal, I am more inclined to suggest backing an Arsenal clean sheet at around the 2.166/5 mark. 

The Gunners may have only kept two in eight Premier League outings this season, but with Rangers' having fired five blanks, odds-against has to be a bit of value.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.491/2 Under 2.5 Goals 3.02/1

I have no real interest in this market either as the odds seem about right all things considered. Arsenal are capable of scoring five or six on their day, but on other occasions they get bogged down in meaningless possession in front of the opposition's back four.

Correct Score  

There are a couple of scorelines that interest me here and they all feature something to nil. I have plumped for 3-0 at 9.89/1 as that seems just a little bit too big.

Cash Out   

This cash out proposition might sound a bit strange given what I've said so far, but I think under 1.5 goals could be a good back to lay option. It's currently trading at around the 6.611/2 mark, and that should contract if QPR keep Arsenal at bay for a sustained period of time.

Harry Redknapp will no doubt pack the midfield and it may be tricky for Arsenal to break them down until legs begin to tire in the final half an hour or so.

Recommended Bets
Back an Arsenal Clean Sheet @ 2.166/5 (2pts)
Back a 3-0 Correct Score @ 9.89/1 (1pt)

Best Cash Out
Back Under 1.5 goals @ 6.611/2

Football Bet of the Day: Let's enjoy a different type of Turkey

This was the only picture of Santa I could find

It's been a good Christmas week for Kevin Hatchard, with 3/3 winners so far, and he's picked out a Turkish Cup clash on the most special of days.

Trabzonspor v Manisaspor
Thursday December 25, 18:30

The Trapani train is a happy place to be. My favourite set of Italian mavericks smashed yesterday's Over 2.5 Goals bet with a 4-1 thrashing of Avellino. That means that 18 of their 20 Serie B outings have now featured three goals or more, and yet the overs bet was available yesterday at 2.186/5. A Christmas bonus, to be sure, and several of you tweeted me yesterday to tell me you got on. I felt warm and fuzzy inside, but that might just be the cold medication I'm taking.

Now never let it be said this column isn't educational, and I'm going to let you into a bit of a secret. My contacts tell me that as a reward for his extraordinary delivery efforts, Santa demands to see a Turkish Cup game on Christmas Day. He has the choice of four to go and see, and I'm led to believe he's visiting Trabzonspor v Manisaspor, so that's our focus too.

Trabzonspor have been scoring plenty of goals of late. They have scored at least three goals in six of their last ten games in all competitions, and a bet on Over 2.5 Goals has paid out seven times in that sequence. The Black Sea Storm have been particularly prolific at their Huseyin Avni Aker stadium, scoring 25 goals in 12 games.

Trabzonspor are taking on second-tier side Manisaspor, and they're no strangers to entertainment either. Five of their last nine outings in all competitions have featured three goals or more, and it's worth noting they've kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 road matches.

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.618/13, and while regular readers will know I wouldn't normally tip such a skinny price, this looks a standout bet on a day where football action is understandably in short supply.

Oh, and Merry Christmas, you crazy rascals!

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.618/13

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 73

Points Returned: 72.44

P/L: -0.56 points