Opta Stats: Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers

Can Jose Mourinho continue his dominance over Harry Redknapp when Chelsea host QPR?

It's a West London derby between two sides at opposite ends of the table, as Chelsea face QPR. Opta are on hand with all the stats.

Chelsea have failed to score in three of the last four Premier League games against west London rivals QPR. The visitors are 15.014/1 to keep a clean sheet.

QPR's last visit to Stamford Bridge saw QPR win 1-0 thanks to former Blues player Shaun Wright-Phillips (January 2013). They are 21.020/1 to win again.

Cesc Fabregas has been involved in nine goals (one goal, eight assists) in nine league games for Chelsea. Fabregas is 2.915/8 to add to his goal tally. 

Queens Park Rangers have won just one of their last 18 away trips to rival London clubs in the Premier League (D3 L14). Chelsea are 1.182/11 inflict another defeat.

Harry Redknapp has lost just one of his last six Premier League clashes with Chelsea (W2 D3). The draw is 8.88/1.

However, he has seen his teams lose all five league clashes with Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. Mourinho's side are 1.68/13 to win half-time/full-time.

In their last 12 league matches at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have kept 10 clean sheets and conceded just four goals in total. Chelsea are 1.664/6 to win to nil.

The last time a side in the Premier League relegation zone went to the home of the league leaders and won was September 2001 (Southampton beating Sam Allardyce's Bolton 1-0). Since then, the league leaders have won 24 of their 26 home matches against a side in the relegation zone (D2). Chelsea are 2.15n/a to win both halves.

Charlie Austin has scored 23 league goals for QPR since the beginning of last season (incl. play-offs); 17 more than any other player (Ravel Morrison - 6). Austin is 4.57/2 to find the net.

Steven Caulker is the only QPR player to have started every league game so far this season. Caulker is 15.014/1 to score.

Opta Stats: Burnley to net at Arsenal as QPR fire blank

QPR have scored just one away goal to date this season

Opta's insights point to a red card at Newcastle, a Burnley goal at Arsenal and a Chelsea clean sheet...

Newcastle v Liverpool (Saturday, 12:45, BT Sport 1)

Newcastle have had five players sent off in their last four Premier League games against Liverpool

There were calls on Betting.Betfair not to discount Alan Pardew and his position looks the securest it has done for quite a while after three straight victories, two of them over Tottenham and Man City. However, the trends hint that Newcastle will be harmed by ill-discipline against Liverpool, who they have seen 11 players red carded against in Premier League history. They have also suffered two dismissals already this term.

Recommended Bet: Back there to be a sending off @ 4.03/1

Arsenal v Burnley (Saturday, 15:00)

Arsenal have been behind at some point in each of their four Premier League home games

The Gunners have not only failed to keep a single domestic clean sheet at the Emirates this season, they have conceded six times in four Premier League fixtures in front of their fans. They conceded first in three of those and, while Burnley are yet to claim a Premier League win, they have at least netted four times in their past three matches, as well as leading Chelsea briefly back in August.

Recommended Bet: Back Burnley to score the next (first) goal @ 5.04/1

Chelsea v QPR (Saturday, 15:00)

In their last 12 league matches at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have kept ten clean sheets

Chelsea were guilty of two troubling away concessions over the previous week at Man United and then Shrewsbury, but their defence tend to get it right far more frequently at home, leaking against none of their past three visitors (Aston Villa, Arsenal and Maribor). QPR have suffered five defeats in a row on their travels in all competitions since promotion and were unable to score in four of those.

Recommended Bet: Back Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ 1.75/7

Stoke v West Ham (Saturday, 15:00)

West Ham have now scored in eight successive Premier League games

Whereas West Ham's best run of 2013/14 - which earned Sam Allardyce February's Premier League Manager of the Month award - was all about shutting opponents out, their current purple patch has been built around the "we're going to score one (or often two) more than you" premise. West Ham have struck 17 times in their last eight encounters, yet have been breached 11 times, winning just one clean sheet.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.845/6

Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Arsenal to score plenty agaisnt hapless Burnley

Arsene Wenger could witness his side score plenty on Saturday

There are half a dozen Premier League games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm on Saturday, and using a combination of Opta stats, current form, and gut feelings, Mike Norman recommended a wager in each of them...

Arsenal 1.282/7 v Burnley 14.5n/a; The Draw 6.411/2

Arsenal have won just three of their opening nine league games which represents one of their worst starts to a season under Arsene Wenger, but on the flip side they've lost just once, and that was to league leaders Chelsea so there's no disgrace there.

There really isn't much we can say about this game; Burnley are awful and Arsenal should record a straightforward win. The only problem we have is determining the best way to profit.

Sean Dyche's men sit bottom of the table and are still without a league win this term. Opta tell us that the Clarets have conceded 12 goals in their last four matches, and when you consider none of those games were against a top class side then you have to really fear for them at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday.

The Gunners are generally very strong at home (unbeaten in 22 Premier League games) and they've scored at least two goals in two-thirds of their league games this season. I will be backing them to score at least four this weekend.

Recommended Bet
Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 4.3100/30 (best bet)

Chelsea 1.21/5 v QPR 21.020/1; The Draw 8.615/2

I'll probably fall off a cliff backing Chelsea to win without conceding; already this season I've backed them to win by this method against Swansea and Crystal Palace in this column, and as well as conceding to those two teams Jose Mourinho's men have also conceded against Everton, Man City, Man Utd, Schalke, Bolton, and Shrewsbury.

But like all good fools I'm going in again, and it's mainly because of what I witnessed on Monday night at Loftus Road.

Talk of QPR's 2-0 win over Aston Villa being a very good performance and a good tactical display was exaggerated in my opinion. There's a huge difference between allowing the opposition to have the ball (Villa had 70% possession at one stage) and not being able to retain possession yourself.

Villa are a poor side and are devoid of confidence but they looked by far the most comfortable team on the ball, and I can't help but feel that if QPR had have played a top team on Monday night then they'd have suffered another defeat.

So this game is all about Chelsea for me. I can't see Harry Redknapp's men causing the Blues any problems whatsoever but I'm not confident that the home side will record a big win either. So it's a Chelsea win to nil for me, yet again!

Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.84/5

Everton 1.784/5 v Swansea 5.49/2; The Draw 4.03/1

Everton have seemingly hit form in recent weeks, recording back-to-back wins over Aston Villa and Burnley while scoring six goals in the process. But I wouldn't be too quick to read too much into those two results; Villa are woefully out of form and the Clarets are the worst side in the Premier League.

Still, you can do no more than win and the confidence within the Toffees squad should have been boosted at least, and with Ross Barkley back to fitness there's a buzz around Goodison Park again.

But what stands out ahead of this game is Everton's terrific record againt Swansea. Opta tell us that they've never lost to the Swans in the league (18 games), and from a player perspective Toffees striker Romelu Lukaku has scored three goals in his five league appearances against Garry Monk's men.

Swansea ended a five-game winless run against Leicester last Saturday but then lost - rather unfortunately perhaps - on Merseyside in midweek when going down 2-1 to Liverpool in the League Cup. I'm not overly confident, but I have to make Everton my selection to win this encounter.

Recommended Bet
Back Everton to Win @ 1.784/5

Hull 4.1n/a v Southampton 2.111/10; The Draw 3.613/5

How can anyone confidently oppose Southampton at the moment? You can't is the honest answer, especially when they're up against a mid-table side and not one of the big guns.

The Saints have won nine of their last 10 league and cup games, their only loss coming at White Hart Lane when they went down narrowly 1-0. What's impressive in this current run of superb form however is that Ronald Koeman's men have recorded five of those wins on the road including at Arsenal in the League Cup, and at two sides currently in the top six in the Premier League - Swansea and West Ham.

Hull have just earned two very respectable draws at Arsenal and Liverpool but the fact remains that Steve Bruce's men have won just one of their last eight league and cup games. They've kept two clean sheets in that spell but in the other six games they conceded an alarming 15 goals.

Southampton are in excellent form, they're scoring goals for fun - 12 in their last three outings - and they also have a superb recent record over Hull. Opta tell us that the Saints have won the last four league meetings against the Tigers.

Recommended Bet
Back Southampton to Win @ 2.111/10

Leicester 2.3411/8 v West Brom 3.412/5; The Draw 3.55/2

I have no idea who will win this game so let's try and bag the hat-trick of Over 3.5 Goals wagers when West Brom are involved.

That recommended bet served me well against both Manchester United and Crystal Palace (both games ended 2-2) and it means that the Baggies' last six league and cup games have all gone over the 2.5 goals mark with two-thirds of them witnessing at least four goals.

West Brom travel to Leicester on Saturday and that's great news because league games at the King Power Stadium have averaged 4.5 goals per match. All four of the Foxes' home league games have resulted in both teams getting on the scoresheet and the Leicester faithful have already witnessed a 5-3 and two 2-2 draws.

There isn't much more we can add really other than that both sides will see this as a winnable encounter and that should allow for an entertaining affair - hopefully one full of goals.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.211/5

Stoke 2.427/5 v West Ham 3.39/4; The Draw 3.55/2

This is perhaps the hardest game of the weekend to call in the top flight. Stoke are generally hard to beat at the Britannia Stadium but they've already lost two of their four league games and suffered another home defeat in the League Cup in midweek.

But Mark Hughes' men have conceded only three goals in those four home league games suggesting they are still tough to beat on home soil, they're just not scoring enough goals at the other end.

West Ham have been in fine form of late, winning four of their last five Premier League games including tremendous victories over Liverpool and Manchester City. Away from home however their only scalps so far have been against Burnley and Crystal Palace, but as I've said already in this column you can do no more than beat what's put in front of you.

It's a very tough game to call, and perhaps the Goals markets offer the best opportunity to profit.

The Hammers have been scoring regularly of late thanks largely to Diafra Sakho who should be fit for Saturday's game. Opta tell us that West Ham have scored in eight successive league games and it's no surprise given the threat in attack they now carry. Stewart Downing has been outstanding this term and he could be key to creating more chances this weekend.

Stoke are not a side usually associated with high-scoring games but I have a hunch this will be an exception, especially if West Ham can get on the scoresheet early like they have been doing this term.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10

Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 45 pts
Returned: 49.50 pts
P/L: + 4.50 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

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Wolves v Birmingham: Blues to make derby statement

New boss Gary Rowett can spark an instant upturn in Birmingham's fortunes

With a new boss in place for the visitors, Saturday's early kick-off in the Championship won't be as one-sided as the market suggests, says Andy Tongue...

Wolves v Birmingham
Saturday 1 November
12:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

Wolves

Kenny Jackett's impressive outfit are up to third after coming from behind to win 2-1 at Leeds last week. They have suffered just two defeats this season - both against supposedly lesser opposition - away to Rotherham and home to Huddersfield. Jackett's side have been very strong at Molineux however with five wins, a draw and just that one loss.

Bakary Sako has netted seven times in 12 games and shown that he is a real threat at this level. He missed the win at Elland Road, though, and faces a late fitness test on his groin injury before kick-off.

Classy winger James Henry has been in fine form, the heart of much of what his side create as well as chipping in with valuable goals, including the equaliser last week. Half-time substitute Leon Clarke then netted the winner and is in line to start here.

Birmingham

Lee Clark had seemingly been on borrowed time at St. Andrews for most of his time there and the inevitable occurred after the home defeat to Bolton at the start of October. However, more humiliation was heaped on them in the next home game when they were hammered 8-0 by Bournemouth.

Only their away form saved them from relegation by the skin of their teeth last season and the 3-1 win at Millwall is their sole victory since mid-August leaving the Blues rooted in 23rd spot with just hapless Blackpool below them.

Former Blues defender Gary Rowett has earned plenty of plaudits for the job he did at Burton Albion and will get the support of the St Andrews faithful but he faces a tough task to turn things around. There are problems at both ends of the pitch - his new charges have scored just 12 goals in the 14 league games this season and, not surprisingly after last Saturday's thumping, have conceded more than any other side.

Match Odds

Wolves are 1.564/7 which is plenty short enough about any side in the Championship. With the exception of poor Blackpool, anybody can beat anyone else on a given day so I'll be giving that price a wide berth.

We know what instant effect a new manager can have on a side if he's the right man for the job - see Kit Symons at Fulham and Neil Lennon at Bolton as opposed to Darko Milanic at Leeds. Rowett looks the perfect choice for Birmingham and you would expect to see a much-improved performance from the visitors here. After last Saturday it can't get any worse!

Add in the fact that this is a derby clash - not quite the biggest for the two sides' admittedly but with Villa and West Brom in the Premier League this is the most important match of the season for local bragging rights at this level. Wolves may have a good record at home this season but they rarely win by more than the odd goal and Jackett will be expecting a real fight here. I'm happy to lay his men at 1.564/7 and that's the recommended bet here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Unders is available to back at 2.186/5 which looks generous given the strong trends in these early kick-offs - seven out of the eight so far this season have gone under the 2.5 line. I've mentioned before that I think the unfamiliar lunchtime start means the game seems to often pass sides before the players can really get stuck into it, especially if half the crowd are half-asleep after a big Friday night too!

The price is probably a reflection of the eight that Birmingham shipped last week. That has to be seen in isolation as an abberation though. I'm pretty sure they will fight tooth and nail here to impress the new boss in what should be a cup tie-like atmosphere so am happily taking that 2.186/5.

Recommended Bets
Lay Wolves @ 1.564/7
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.186/5

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 45 pts
Returned: 43.85 pts
P/L: -1.15 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets

Opta Stats: Newcastle United v Liverpool

Will Alan Pardew's resurrection continue when Newcastle face Liverpool?

Newcastle have turned their season around with three wins on the spin. Opta reveals whether they can make it four against Liverpool.

Newcastle have had five players sent off in their last four Premier League games against Liverpool. The odds of a player being sent off are likely to be around 4.03/1.

Liverpool have scored more goals against Newcastle United in the Premier League (84) than versus any other opponent. Over 2.5 goals is 1.784/5.

The Reds have scored 598 goals away from home in Premier League history. Both teams to score is available at 1.684/6.

No fixture in Premier League history has produced more goals than clashes between Liverpool and Newcastle United (129). Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 2.962/1. 

Against no side have Liverpool won more often than they have against Newcastle United in the Premier League (23 wins - level with their record v Aston Villa). Liverpool are 2.0811/10 to win.

Daniel Sturridge has scored six goals in eight Barclays Premier League games against Newcastle including four in three for Liverpool. He is likely to miss this game through injury, however. Newcastle are 5.59/2 to keep a clean sheet.

Fabio Borini has scored three goals in three Premier League games against the Magpies - he's not scored more than once against any other opponent. Borini is 3.02/1 to find the net.

Liverpool have won four and lost just one of their last seven Premier League games against the Magpies (D2). They are 3.3512/5 to win half-time/full-time.

However, Newcastle United have won two and lost just one of the last four home games against the Reds in the Premier League. Newcastle are 3.8514/5 to beat Liverpool.

Papiss Demba Cisse has scored a goal every 61 minutes so far this season; the best record in the Premier League of all players to have scored more than once. Cisse is 3.259/4 to find the net.

Liverpool: Capital One Cup the start of a Balotelli streak

Mario Balotelli has been overly criticised for not immediately excelling in a struggling Liverpool side

Michael Lintorn has discovered that good things happen after Mario Balotelli scores in the Capital One Cup...

Mario Balotelli is back! His equaliser seven minutes after coming on in Liverpool's 2-1 Capital One Cup victory over Swansea inspired a host of "Why always him?" headline variants, which was slightly confusing given that the issue so far this season is that it most definitely hasn't always been him.

Many will discount Balotelli's contribution against Swansea, viewing it as a false dawn similar to his maiden goal in the Champions League win over Ludogorets, and prefer to focus on him notching just twice in a dozen outings, both times in home cup ties in which the Reds were odds-on favourites.

However, while his Premier League account for the Merseyside giants remains closed despite seven prior attempts to open it, there is a reason to believe that this truly is the beginning of something special.

The Capital One Cup leveller was only his third career strike in the competition and his first for Man City three years ago signalled the start of his most impressive ever run in English football.

After scoring the second in Man City's 2-0 third-round triumph over Birmingham, Balotelli went on to net in all of his next four appearances too, culminating in that brilliant brace in the 6-1 thrashing of Man United at Old Trafford that made "Why Always Me?" a thing.

In total, the tabloid obsession fired eight times in nine games in the immediate aftermath of that Capital One Cup effort and he followed his second goal in it against Aston Villa in 2012/13 with the equaliser against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League eight days later.

Balotelli's first net-rippler against domestic opposition for his previous employers AC Milan also triggered a streak of seven goals in six matches, so Liverpool fans should allow themselves some optimism that their headline summer addition has finally arrived.

If this is to prove the case then Newcastle, who have conceded two goals or more in three of their four Premier League home fixtures, are lined up to be the next victims at St James' Park on Saturday. Balotelli is 2.6213/8 to score in that encounter.

League One Betting: Derry's in-form County too good to ignore this weekend

County's bright young manager Shaun Derry

Alan Dudman is hoping Notts County can reward backers this Saturday as they entertain low-scoring Walsall, whilst the draw at Sheffield United might be the most interesting bet in the Yorkshire derby...

Sheffield United 1.865/6 v Barnsley 4.77/2, the draw 3.9n/a

Bramall Lane is the scene for the big Yorkshire derby this Saturday, and the hosts are odds-on to maintain their recent sequence of  five unbeaten and three straight wins. If you are taking the short price on Sheffield United, you also have a team that are back to their best in defence - and they've kept three successive clean sheets too. 

Blades boss Nigel Clough maintained that his men have been slowly 'getting there' this season (they were title favourites in the summer), and those shut-outs have enabled them to move up to fifth in the table. 

Barnsley meanwhile have been conceding too many goals, but away from home they have played really well against Peterborough, Notts County and most recently Bristol City. Tykes boss Danny Wilson said after Saturday's 2-2 draw against Bristol City: "We came up against a team that was well clear in League One and there was nothing between the sides."

This does highlight how close this division is, and recently the top teams have been slipping up. The question is can Barnsley be strong enough here to warrant a back of 4.707/2? Maybe not, but the fact they are sitting where they are in the table is more to do with consistency (or lack of it) rather than talent. 

Sheffield United are using a three-man midfield with centre-backs Paddy McCarthy and Chris Basham (who has dropped back from the middle) proving to be a strong partnership. In fact, the former has been really commanding in some superb displays, which has helped in their recent fine defensive run. 

I'm more tempted by the draw as a trading angle here, and despite the fact that Barnsley have been involved in plenty of over 2.5 goals matches recently (seven hitting the target from nine), their away game has overall been a lot tighter. 

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.9n/a

Peterborough United 1.625/8 v Scunthorpe United 6.05/1, the draw 4.1n/a

Now this column is going through a bit of a bad trot, and the psyche of a punter is truly tested when things are completely going against you. I can count ending Leyton Orient's fine unbeaten away record of 13 (throw in a red card too), and the hex on Swindon etc etc. But the real test is how you respond, and I must admit, seeing the column nearly ten points down doesn't lend me to go 'all in' on odds-on shots - whilst at the same time avoiding chasing. 

I was tempted to lay Sheffield United at 1.865/6 above, but they are in great nick and keeping clean sheets. Posh aren't neither of those at the moment, and yet they trade at a shorter price, which certainly makes them lay material this Saturday. 

I put up Peterborough at Crewe recently, and they lost 1-0 whilst trading at 1.9010/11 before the match - I suppose being reduced to nine men didn't help. But Saturday's 3-2 loss at Coventry (a side out of form) was worrying. Manager Darren Ferguson revealed his disappointment by saying that the players now owe him 'big time'. Their passing just went to pieces at the Ricoh, and they wilted under pressure according to Fergie junior. 

United have lost two of their last five, but their home record at London Road is strong. However, last term Posh went through a bad blip in results,  the best time to get on those type of runs is at the beginning at short prices (which is never easy to do), and at twos-on, the cost won't be too expensive. 

In Scunthorpe we are hoping for the bottom of the table side out-performing their position; and this could easily be achieved. Since Mark Robins took over from Russ Wilcox they have drawn two out of three, and the only defeat came on Saturday in the 1-0 loss to in-form Notts County (a penalty on 89 minutes). 

The players seem to be giving a lot of effort to Robins, and they do have game-changers such as Gary McSheffrey and Paddy Madden. The fact they played so well and restricted County to one goal means it might be worth a half-stake bet on Scunthorpe, or the braver lay on the hosts. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Peterborough @ 1.625/8

Notts County 2.6413/8 v Walsall 3.052/1, the draw 3.412/5

County are the form team at the moment in League One, and dare I say the biggest surprise of the season under rookie boss Shaun Derry. And the fact we can back a side that have achieved six successive wins at around 6/4 is fairly staggering. 

The more I look at the price, the more I can't understand it. Walsall are perhaps in a false position, but they were the joint lowest scorers in the league prior to Saturday's 1-0 victory against Chesterfield. That ended a three-game losing sequence, but they do struggle to score goals, and yet they are fairly evenly matched on the market. 

It's time to bow down to the church of Derry though, as this is some transformation from the side that were down on its knees under Chris Kiwomya just 12 months ago. I like Derry, and have always enjoyed him on the radio or in his current role. He talks of honesty and his players need to 'get in peoples faces'. There's a bit of his old boss Neil Warnock in that, and he gets his men playing for him. 

That's not to say his method isn't all old style blood and thunder. He has mentioned he likes wingers (but not luxury players), and recent QPR signing Michael Petrasso had a terrific match at Barnsley only a week ago, and he looks a proper wide man in every sense. And that was the mark of the new manager, as their first-half performance was truly shocking, but they turned it around after the break. 

I would certainly be looking at a tight game knowing Walsall (whose last seven matches have resulted in five under 2.5 goals affairs). Aided by County's terrific home record of WWDDW I would also throw in a 1-0 victory for the hosts. 

Recommended Bets
Back Notts County to win @ 2.6413/8
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11

League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)

-9.30 pts

Premier League: Fatal flaw threatens Chelsea title push

Jose Mourinho's Chelsea may not be as invincible as they appear

Chelsea are huge favourites to win the Premier League, but they need to quickly suss out how to hold onto a lead...

The Premier League table makes delightful reading for Chelsea fans. They are four points clear at the top, six ahead of the closest "Big Seven" club and nine points or more beyond the rest of that gang, while the only points that they have dropped were away to Man City and Man United.

The Blues have darted in to 1.434/9 favouritism in the Premier League winner market from a pre-season high of 4.4, with Man City the sole side anywhere near them in the betting at 5.04/1. Arsenal and Man United by contrast are 24.023/1 and 30.029/1 outsiders.

However, while playing 14 times across all competitions without suffering a single defeat has lent them an air of invincibility that has seen them compared to Arsenal's unbeaten 2003/04 champions, the aura is undermined by a fault that keeps surfacing whenever they appear most comfortable.

There have already been five occasions in 2014/15 in which they have surrendered a lead, meaning that it has happened in 36% of their fixtures.

It has cost them points three times - away to Man City and Man United in the Premier League and at home to Schalke in the Champions League - while twice against lower-league opposition (Bolton and Shrewsbury), the gulf in class has been enough for them to find time to win the match all over again.

While they might have been happy with draws at the Etihad Stadium and Old Trafford at the start of those encounters, it was difficult to excuse their collapses. At Man City, they were up against ten men due to Pablo Zabaleta's dismissal, while Man United were struggling to create anything of note last Sunday prior to the free-kick at the finish.

A major reason why they came within four points of title winners Man City last term with a squad that nobody - least of all Jose Mourinho - fancied much was that they conceded just twice in seven trips to the other top-eight teams. They have leaked a worrying five in three when visiting the same gang already this season.

Similarly, Chelsea dropped only ten points from winning positions in 2013/14. If they continue at the current rate, they are on course to spill 17, which is bizarre given the impression that this side is far better tailored to Mourinho's demands than the one which he inherited.

QPR are the next club hoping to profit from a late Chelsea lapse, though the Blues are 1.192/11 to send their neighbours home from Stamford Bridge pointless.

Against All Odds: Copa do Brasil semi to entertain

The atmosphere should be great tonight

The action comes from Brazil tonight for Paul Robinson as he thinks the Copa do Brasil tie between Cruzeiro and Santos will be a high-scoring affair.

Cruzeiro v Santos
Thursday October 30, 00:00 GMT

Despite a recent stuttering of form that has seen them win just one of their last half dozen matches, defending league champions, Cruzeiro, are still on course to complete a domestic double of the Campeonato and this competition - the Copa do Brasil.

Marcelo Oliveira's side are successful because they know where the goal is. With 54 scored so far this year, they have the highest total in the entire division. Their defensive record is actually one of the worst, and that has led to their matches averaging 2.77 goals each time. It's also worth noting that three of their four cup ties have rewarded under 2.5 layers.

Santos were on a decent run but that has stalled somewhat in the last couple of weeks following a loss at home to Fluminense and a draw at Chapecoense on Saturday. Prior to that they had beaten both Botafogo and Palmeiras - racking up an impressive eight goals in the process.

Enderson Moreira's main ambition tonight will be to keep his team in the tie ahead of the second leg at Vila Belmiro. A defensive approach might not be the wisest though and I really think that he will throw players forward in order to score at least once - something which they've achieved in five of their last six on the road.

Despite this being the first leg, I have a strong feeling that the goals will flow. That's why, with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.865/6 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Cruzeiro v Santos @ 1.865/6

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 291 pts
Returned: 306.49 pts
P/L: + 15.49 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Premier League: Rising Everton are surely top-six certs

Romelu Lukaku has scored four goals in his last six league games

Michael Lintorn is slightly surprised to find Everton odds-against for a top-six Premier League finish...

Two statistics to kick this story off: Everton have made the top six in five of the past eight seasons, and the Toffees have more points after nine games this term (12) than they mustered in four of the prior six. With that in mind, it is bizarre that they are 2.3611/8 to achieve another top-six finish.

The team accustomed to overcoming laboured starts to establish themselves among the elite are a point ahead of Tottenham, one shy of Man United and two behind Arsenal and Liverpool, yet are bigger odds than all of them.

It is the contrast between their 2.3611/8 price and the 2.226/5 available on the Spurs side trailing them in the table which will rankle most, particularly because they finished three points above the Lilywhites last season, conducted a more ambitious transfer window and have negotiated trickier matches.

Roberto Martinez's men have faced four of their "Big Seven" companions to the north Londoners' three, holding Arsenal at home and Liverpool away, being narrowly beaten 1-2 at Man United and falling 3-6 to leaders Chelsea at Goodison Park.

Whereas Tottenham's best form came at the very beginning as the novelty of another new manager in Mauricio Pochettino fuelled them, Everton encountered early wobbles - drawing at Leicester and losing at home to Crystal Palace for the second campaign running - before improving since the last international break.

They have recently defeated Aston Villa 3-0 and Burnley 3-1 - their goal-per-game average in that double header increasing from 1.86 previously to 3.00 as, most importantly, their concession rate thinned from 2.29 to a more palatable 0.50.

The success at Turf Moor provided the encouraging discovery that Samuel Eto'o and Romelu Lukaku can play together, with the former scoring twice and being a post strike shy of a hat-trick as the latter grabbed the other, while they thrived even without Sylvain Distin and John Stones at the back.

Everton's freshly-generated momentum is given a reasonable chance to flourish by the fixture list too: trips to Tottenham and Man City are their only clashes with Big Seven rivals in 11 leading up to New Year's Day.

BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Kohlschreiber to make a fast start against new dad Djokovic

Kohlschreiber can make life tough for Djokovic early on

Number one seed Novak Djokovic makes his tournament debut in Paris on Tuesday and Sean Calvert expects it to be a tough test for the Serb against Philipp Kohlschreiber...

We managed to get off to a good start in Bercy on Monday when Sam Querrey eased past the handicap mark for a winner on day one of the BNP Paribas Masters over Jerzy Janowicz.

The American, who with that victory chalked up his 20th straight win in all competitions, had to come back from losing the opener on a tie break, but he kept his serve intact throughout and was always the more solid of the two players.

Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych are among the top-10 stars beginning their campaigns on Tuesday and it could well be worth taking the Serb on his opening match against Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Djokovic, who became a father last week, will more than likely win this match, but 1.121/8 is very short against a dangerous opponent, who has beaten and taken sets from Djokovic in the past.

Kohlschreiber tuned up well yesterday by comfortably defeating another new dad in Edouard Roger-Vasselin and he has taken at least a set from Djokovic in four of their six meetings.

A supremely talented ball striker when he's on form Kohlschreiber, unfortunately for him and his backers, has an alarming tendency to falter from winning positions, but he can certainly give Nole a scare in this 18:30 UK time match.

Djokovic hasn't played for three weeks and has clearly had other things on his mind, so the set one to Kohlschreiber is a good choice at 5.59/2, as is the 2-1 to Djokovic if you fancy him to come through.

That's a 5.59/2 shot as well and the Kohlschreiber to win any set is also appealing at 3.55/2, but the likelihood is the German will need to win the opener.

Unfortunately for me and my fellow Gael Monfils backers it would appear that after saying he was "100% fit" Monfils actually meant that his knee is still a major problem and he may not even play his scheduled match with Joao Sousa today.

Ironically, Monfils's last match on tour - the one where he got the knee problem - was against Sousa as well and the Portuguese scrapper might well get lucky twice in a row.

Of the early 10am UK time starts I thought about Pablo Cuevas as underdog against Leo Mayer, but Cuevas is yet another who became a father last week and may not fancy hanging around in Paris at the end of a long season in those circumstances.

Jeremy Chardy played well last week in similar conditions in Valencia and really should have beaten Tommy Robredo in the semi finals there and he should be too good in these slowish conditions for the walking serve of Kenny de Schepper.

Robredo himself has a rough turnaround after that epic Valencia final against Murray when he takes on Vasek Pospisil, but don't count him out of that one as underdog against the Canadian, who was awful last week.

Recommended Bet
Back Kohlschreiber to win set one at 5.59/2

Rumours: How many players can Manchester United be linked with?

Marco Reus is linked with Liverpool today

Lots of big names are being linked with moves today and most of them are German internationals. Will any of these deals come off?

Liverpool have reportedly moved into pole position for Borussia Dortmund's contract rebel Marco Reus and could make a move in January.

The Bundesliga outfit were hopeful of agreeing a new long-term deal with the German international, although any chance of that happening now seems to be over.

The 25-year-old looks set to move away from Dortmund in January and Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers is hoping to splash the cash in order to add more attacking threat to his side.

According to several media outlets in England, a bid of 32million should be enough to land the midfielder, although they will have to combine that offer with a huge contract worth 180,000-a-week.

Bet 10 Get 30 with Betfair Plus Money Back if you Lose

Staying in the Premier League and Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettino is hoping to be re-united with Southampton striker Jay Rodriguez come January.

The Daily Mirror are reporting the former Saints manager is willing to offer around 20million for the Englishman's services and is hopeful the signing can kick-start Spurs' stuttering season.

Moving on and there are at least four Premier League clubs interested in securing the services of Sami Khedira from Real Madrid, according to Shoot.

The German international is said to be unsettled at the Spanish club and is actively seeking a move away in January, with Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City all interested.

The latter are the latest side to throw their name in to the mix as Manuel Pellegrini still has doubts over the long-term future of Ivorian Yaya Toure, and a move for Khedira for around 8million is a real possibility.

According to the Daily Star, City's Manchester rivals are weighing up a move for Bayer Leverkusen defender Omer Toprak as Louis van Gaal looks to strengthen his defensive options.

The 25-year-old has been an ever-present for the Bundesliga outfit this season and has produced a number of top-class performances that have caught the eye of the former Holland manager.

United are willing to shell out around 12million for the defender and given the money they spent this summer, the signing would be a snip at that relatively cheap price.

Sticking with the Red Devils and the club are monitoring Schalke duo Benedikt Howedes and Julian Draxler, according to German outlet Bild.

The latter almost moved to Arsenal in the last January transfer window and although a move was rejected by the midfielder, interest from United could be harder to resist.

Howedes is also being closely looked at as Van Gaal is still keen on shaking up the leaky defence currently present at Old Trafford.

Premier League Stats Review: New-look Hammers good value to continue fast start

Stewart Downing: Revitalised this season

In his latest stats-based look at the best bets of the weekend, Andrew Atherley says the numbers add up well for West Ham at Stoke on Saturday even without star striker Diafra Sakho...

It is safe to say West Ham's good start to the season is no fluke - and not just because of last week's 2-1 home win over reigning champions Manchester City.

Yet it is arguable that the odds makers have not caught up with the Hammers, who have been shortening in the past couple of days but still look good value for a positive result away to Stoke on Saturday.

The Hammers are an attractive 3.39/4 for the win but the best way to back them is on the Draw No Bet at 2.285/4.

Leicester are an example of a team that has been unable to build on a good result against a top club - one point from four games since their 5-3 home win over Manchester United - but West Ham's form has much more substance.

The new-look Hammers are virtually unrecognisable from last season's model. Where they previously spluttered and occasionally stalled, now they are fast, exciting and much more reliable.

Sam Allardyce deserves great credit for the transformation, having weathered intense criticism from Hammers fans and gone on to defy the stereotype of his teams as dour long-ball merchants. Strikers Diafra Sakho and Enner Valencia arrived in the summer - along with midfielders Alex Song and Morgan Amalfitano - and Allardyce has been able to change to a fluid and entertaining style.

Goals are the key to the turnaround. Already, after just nine games, West Ham's 17-goal tally has taken them almost halfway to last season's total of 40. Only Everton and Chelsea matches have a higher goals average than the Hammers' 3.22 goals per game, while Allardyce's side are joint-top with Everton for games with over 2.5 goals (seven out of nine).

Sakho has hogged the headlines with his burst of seven goals in seven consecutive games but, even though he is now injured, it is often a mistake to ascribe a team's form to one player. Only two of Sakho's goals have been West Ham's opener and just one has been the first goal in a match, which indicates Allardyce's team are capable of creating and scoring without him. The other new arrivals have been important too, along with the revitalisation of Stewart Downing as an attacking midfielder.

The Hammers' new-found scoring power gives them a chance of upsets like the one against Manchester City but, most significantly, is proving too much for the majority of Premier League teams. Taking out their results against big-six teams, West Ham's record this season is W3 D1 L1 and the defeat was against second-placed Southampton.

If the Hammers get on the scoresheet at Stoke, as their record suggests they will, the hosts will struggle to beat them. Stoke are joint-third lowest scorers in the Premier League with just eight goals in nine games and they have won only once this season when conceding (W1 D2 L4).  

Overall, under Mark Hughes, Stoke's win rate when conceding is just 25% and that gives West Ham a good chance of taking at least a point. With due respect to Stoke's home record of only three defeats in 17 against teams outside the big six, West Ham on the draw no bet looks the best value.

****

Manchester City still have the stats in their favour at home to elite opponents and they look good value for the win at 1.9420/21 in Sunday's derby clash with Manchester United.

City have already played three home matches against big-six opponents and their only dropped points were against leaders Chelsea, the toughest visitors they are likely to face. The quality of their attacking play at the Etihad was evident in clear-cut wins over Liverpool (3-1) and Tottenham (4-1).

It was a similar story last season when Chelsea (with a 1-0 win) were the only big-six team to stop Manuel Pellegrini's team at the Etihad. Under Pellegrini, City have won six out of eight against big-six teams and scored at least twice against every opponent apart from Chelsea, with five of the six wins being by two or more goals.

Leaving aside the Chelsea games, all of City's other matches against big-six opponents under Pellegrini have had over 2.5 goals, which is strongly indicated but is short enough at 1.684/6.

Altogether, since becoming part of a big six in the 2009-10 season, City have a home win rate of 64% in elite clashes and 57% of those home games have had over 2.5 goals - figures that are impressive enough in any case but are on an upward trend.

Recommended Bets
Back West Ham on Draw No Bet v Stoke at 2.285/4 (1pt)
Back Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 1.9420/21 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 22 pts
Returned: 25.26 pts
P/L: +3.26 pts

Against All Odds: Brazilian duo to go goal crazy

It's goals on the menu tonight

The action comes from South America for Paul Robinson today as he thinks that Luverdense and Avai will serve up a few goals.

Luverdense v Avai
Tuesday October 28, 23:50 GMT

Luverdense have had a decent campaign considering they have only just been promoted from Serie C. With half a dozen league games to go, they are nicely situated in mid-table, a healthy eight points clear of the relegation zone. 

Home has been where the heart is for Maico Gacho's side as 31 of their 43 points have come in front of their own fans. They've racked up 10 wins and a draw at Passo das Emas, but they have lost on five occasions. Interestingly, three of those defeats came in their last six outings there, and they kept just one clean sheet during that period.

There matches this year are averaging 2.31 goals each time, with 13 of the 32 rewarding over 2.5 backers - including two of their last five in front of their own fans.

Avai need to pick up at least a point to revive their season. Despite falling to three successive defeats - five in their last six - they are still clinging on to a top four spot. The chasing pack is closing in though, so if they want promotion, the slump needs to end.

In all fairness to 'Leo da Ilha' or 'Lion of the Island' to you and me, they did face some tough opposition during that period. Joinville and Ponte Preta are the top two in the league, Atletico GO are sixth, ABC recently beat Cruzeiro in the Copa do Brasil and Nautico came down from the top flight last year. The Santa Catarina based club may have lost their last three on the road, but prior to that they were 10 unbeaten - winning six of them. 

As far as the goals go, with 42 scored and 34 conceded, their matches this term are averaging 2.38 goals each time. Half a dozen of their last eight away games have finished with three or more being scored and they shipped seven in their last three.

The visitors really need to go for it tonight as they are slipping down the table at the worst possible time. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.784/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.      

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Luverdense v Avai @ 1.794/5

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 290 pts
Returned: 304.28 pts
P/L: + 14.28 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Juventus to march on in Italy

Carlos Tevez is back in the Argentina squad

Trying to follow up last week's winner, Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...

Bet 1: Tottenham (HOME) @ 1.44 (4/9)  

Spurs may have been beaten at home by Newcastle on Sunday but they at least now have a great opportunity to put that behind them and make it through to the quarter-finals of the Capital One Cup.

Mauricio Pochettino has never really taken cup competitions seriously in his managerial career but that might not be a bad thing this evening. His second string side featuring the likes of Harry Kane and Andros Townsend have arguably been performing better than the first team.

Brighton were tipped for big things at the start of the season following the arrival of Sami Hyypia as manager, but after 14 Championship fixtures they are down in 21st place. 

The Seagulls haven't won since a 3-0 success over Burton in the last round of this competitions back in September and I doubt they will be able to lay much of a glove on the North Londoners at White Hart Lane.

Bet 2: Juventus (AWAY) @ 1.5 (1/2) - Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video at 19:45 GMT

Juventus have silenced any doubters this year as the reigning champions have shrugged off the loss of manager, Antonio Conte, to once again sit at the top of the league. They have a three point advantage over the resurgent, Roma, and they are yet to be beaten.

It's three wins and a draw for Massimiliano Allegri's men away from Turin, with 'The Old Lady' conceding only goal during that period. They won on this ground back in March and star striker, Carlos Tevez, has already netted half a dozen goals this year.

Genoa came from behind to beat Chievo at the weekend but it is worth noting that Chievo are in the relegation zone and had to play the final 17 minutes with 10 men - the score being 1-1 at the time of the dismissal.

Gian Piero Gasperini's side have already lost twice at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season and their supporters must be fearing the worst with the champs in town.

Bet 3: Cagliari v AC Milan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.7 (7/10) - Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video at 19:45 GMT

Cagliari were rampant in a 4-0 demolition of Empoli on Saturday. All four goals came between the 31st and 45th minute and they put two past the undefeated, Sampdoria, the week before. While that wasn't enough for the win, it shows that their attackers are in great heart.

The Sardinia based club have racked up 13 goals so far this campaign, and with 11 conceded at the other end, their fixtures are averaging exactly three goals each time. Five of their eight have rewarded over 2.5 backers - including all of their home games.

AC Milan are trying to rebuild under a new manager and the initial signs are that they aren't too far away from where they were a few years ago. Filippo Inzaghi certainly prefers attack to defence, which is evidenced by their 'For and 'Against' column.

'Rossoneri' have scored 17 and conceded 11, which equates to a match average of 3.5 goals per 90 minutes. Interestingly, if we focus on their away games only, that average shoots up to a whopping 4.75 as their four away scorelines this year have been 4-5, 2-2, 1-1 and 1-3.

Bet 4: Stoke v Southampton (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.8 (4/5)  

The Capital One Cup represents a good opportunity for a crack at silverware for Stoke and Southampton as while they are both performing admirably in the league, it's highly doubtful that they will challenge for the title.

The Saints have shocked just about everybody this season with their continued improvement despite the loss of several key players. Five clean sheets out of nine proves that they are rock solid defensively, and while they put eight past Sunderland at St Mary's, three of their last five on the road have finished with under 2.5 goals.

Stoke are nicely positioned in mid-table and, like their opponents, they have done well defensively this term. With just 10 goals conceded only two other teams have let in fewer. Their matches are averaging dead on two goals each time and when they faced Southampton in the league on Saturday, the net bulged only once.

Recommended Multiple

Back Tottenham @ 1.44 (4/9)
Back Juventus @ 1.5 (1/2)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Cagliari v AC Milan @ 1.7 (7/10)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Stoke v Southampton @ 1.8 (4/5)

The Multiple pays approximately 6.61 (11/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 43 pts
Returned: 91.05 pts
P/L: + 48.05 pts
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

Capital One Cup Tips: Tottenham to enjoy the interval

Harry Kane has scored six goals in five cup games this season

After Tuesday's Capital One Cup non-TV column delivered three winners from four, Michael Lintorn aims for two more...

Stoke v Southampton
Wednesday, 19:45

Match Odds: Stoke 3.45n/a, Southampton 2.3211/8, The Draw 3.55/2

A whole four days removed from their Premier League meeting at St Mary's, which was won 1-0 by the second-in-the-table hosts, Stoke and Southampton are reunited in the Capital One Cup.

However, the Saints' hopes of an encore are compromised by both the Potters' eight wins in 11 home games and Mark Hughes' feat in triumphing in 15 of his previous 25 Capital One Cup ties.

Those impressive statistics create enough uncertainty to indicate that the total goals markets might be an easier starting point than picking a winner, and there is definitely a case for under 2.5 goals at 1.824/5.

Saturday's clash was the third in four between the sides to conclude with two goals or fewer scored, with another being their most recent Britannia Stadium showdown last November. Speaking of "The Brit", eight of Stoke's past 12 fixtures there served up under 2.5 goals.

Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.824/5

Tottenham v Brighton
Wednesday, 19:45

Match Odds: Tottenham 1.511/2, Brighton 7.87/1, The Draw 4.77/2

With Tottenham fans feeling gloomy after their home defeat to miscast crisis club Newcastle at the weekend, which left them on a run of one Premier League victory in their last seven attempts, there are few more reassuring opponents for them to be facing right now than Brighton.

The Seagulls have been a layer's dream in the Championship - indeed Betting.Betfair's Lays of the Weekend has successfully taken them on three times already this season - and they are currently winless in ten matches in the division, suggesting that they are ripe for siding against once more.

One way to do that is to back Spurs to lead at the break at the generous price of 2.0421/20. Even in their present unconvincing state, they have been ahead on the 45-minute mark in four successive White Hart Lane encounters, despite going on to drop points in two, and those were all against top-flight visitors.

Recommended Bet: Back Tottenham to lead at half time @ 2.0421/20

Football Bet of the Day: Benfica to dig up goals in the Quarry

One Direction: Braga know where their match with Benfica is headed

Portugal's league leaders travel to Braga and Tobias Gourlay expects them to put on a show

Braga v Benfica
Sunday 20:15 (Live on BT Sport Extra)

Ajax 3 Go Ahead 1 in the Netherlands yesterday.

But De Boer's lot weren't quick enough out of the blocks - only 1-1 at the break and our win/win double-result bet is not made.

Benfica are top of Portugal's Primeira Liga, having scored 19 times in the first seven rounds of the season. Make it four wins out of four away games today and they will be at least four points clear of the pack.

Since Jorge Jesus took over, Benfica have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 58% of their away games (45/78). Football Form Labs data shows that, against teams in mid-table like Braga (ninth last season, running seventh right now), that rises to 67% (24/36).

At the Quarry, Sergio Conceicao's first three games in charge of Braga have brought a hat trick of home wins and eight goals scored. Since the start of 2012/13 a total of 23/33 Liga games at the Quarry (that's 70%, algebra fans) have produced Over 2.5 Goals.

At 2.1411/10 there's rock-solid value on offer tonight.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10 in Braga v Benfica

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 48pts
Returned: 40.57pts

-7.43pts

Capital One Cup on Betfair: Youthful Newcastle stun City to book quarter-final date with Spurs

Jose Mourinho's men are favourites to win the League Cup

Just eight clubs remain in the Capital One Cup and Mike Norman has details of the quarter-final draw and updated odds, plus the significant prices matched in one of the season's big shocks...

Newcastle United produced one of the shocks of the season by beating Manchester City 0-2 at the Etihad Stadium this evening to book their place in the Capital One Cup quarter-final.

Following back-to-back league wins there was an air of confidence about the north-east outfit but with Alan Pardew fielding a much-changed and relatively inexperienced side that included teenagers Adam Armstrong and Rolando Aarons, few gave them a chance of victory over the Premier League champions.

In fact when the starting line-ups were known with City including the likes of Yaya Toure, David Silva, Edin Dzeko, and Stevan Jovetic in their starting XI, the hosts were matched at a low of just 1.182/11 before kick-off to win the game.

But it was Newcastle - matched at 22.021/1 - who prevailed thanks to goals from Aarons and Moussa Sissoko as they recorded a fully deserved 0-2 victory.

Aarons was matched at 36.035/1 to score the first goal of the game, while the 0-2 Correct Score was matched at the huge price of 180.0179/1.

The Magpies reward for their magnificent win is a quarter-final tie away to Tottenham, who beat Brighton 2-0 at White Hart Lane tonight. Of course, Pardew's men beat Spurs at the Lane 1-2 in the Premier League just three days ago.

Chelsea are the 2.56/4 favourites to win the Capital One Cup after being drawn away to Championship leaders Derby.

Jose Mourinho's men survived a mini scare at Shrewsbury on Tuesday night but eventually came away with a 1-2 win, while Derby came from 2-0 down to beat Fulham 2-5 at Craven Cottage.

The two other ties are League One outfit Sheffield United at home to Southampton, who were involved in a 2-3 victory - matched at 42.041/1 - at Stoke this evening, and Championship side Bournemouth at home to eight-time League Cup winners Liverpool.

Quarter Final Draw;

Derby v Chelsea
Tottenham v Newcastle
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Sheff Utd v Southampton

*ties to be played w/c 15th December

To win the Capital One Cup

Chelsea - 2.5
Liverpool - 4.9
Tottenham - 5.7
Southampton - 6.2
Newcastle - 9.8
Derby - 30.0
Bournemouth - 44.0
Sheff Utd - 46.0

*odds correct as of 22:15, October 29

Against All Odds: Verona's defensive frailties to continue

This will be the reaction of under 3.5 layers after the game

Serie A is the league of choice for Paul Robinson this evening as he feels that Lazio's trip to Verona will result in plenty of goals.

Verona v Lazio
Thursday October 30, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video  

Hellas Verona enjoyed a fine campaign last year considering it was their first season back in the top flight. They finished 10th in the league, scoring a whopping 62 goals - only Juventus, Napoli, Roma and Fiorentina netted more. 'Gialloblu' had started well this time around but three defeats from their last four outings has dropped them to 12th in the table.

Most worryingly for manager, Andrea Mandorlini, will be that they conceded three at home to Milan and then followed that up last week by shipping six at Napoli. Defensive issues aren't a new thing for Verona as only Livorno and Sassuolo conceded more last term.

Lazio are flying after a disappointing beginning that saw them lose three of their first four fixtures. Stefano Pioli was only appointed as their new manager during the summer though so he can be forgiven that and he's since rewarded the faith of his backers as his men have gone on to win their last four matches.

The Rome based club have really found their goalscoring touch of late, most notably new recruit, Filip orevi. The Serbian has banged in five in his last four for 'Biancocelesti' and that includes a hat trick in a 4-0 success at Palermo. Two of their last four have now gone over 3.5 goals - three out of eight for the campaign - and when these sides met last year, the scores were 3-3 and 4-1.

Just about everything is pointing towards goals tonight, so with under 3.5 trading at around the 1.491/2 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Verona v Lazio @ 1.491/2

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 292 pts
Returned: 306.49 pts
P/L: + 14.49 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Murray to seal O2 spot at expense of Dimitrov

Andy Murray can qualify for the World Tour FInals today

Round three of the BNP Paribas Masters is the order of the day on Thursday in Bercy and Sean Calvert selects the best bets for today's last-16 clashes...

It was a tale of two tie breaks in Paris on Wednesday, as both of my wagers were defeated in breakers at the BNP Paribas Masters.

Those who backed Dominic Thiem to win a set against Stan Wawrinka can consider themselves very unlucky, as the Austrian was denied by a net cord in set two and had a set point.

Thiem was serving at *5-4 and had moved into the net to finish off the point when a thick net cord perplexed the youngster and he ended up slicing long.

Then Jack Sock was unable to win a final set tie break against Milos Raonic, but at least the American provided good trading material from the opening 3.211/5 in to a low of 1.695/7.

Andy Murray didn't seem to suffer any lingering effects from his recent heavy schedule in a comfortable straight sets win over Julien Benneteau and he can take Grigor Dimitrov out of the London running and seal his own spot at the O2 today.

Murray faces Dimitrov for the sixth time in their careers at around 1pm UK time and having lost the last two against the Bulgarian he'll enjoy this one if he is victorious today.

And there's no real reason to think he won't after beating Benneteau and going on to describe his current on court level as being "match tight."

It's hard to get a level on Dimitrov at the moment, as he looked spent at times in Basel last week, but came out looking sharp against an admittedly poor Pablo Cuevas yesterday.

The Uruguayan may have had other matters on his mind, having become a dad in the last week or so and he may well have been more than happy to end what's been a good season for him yesterday.

Dimitrov must win if he has ideas of being in London himself, but I don't expect the slow conditions here to help the Bulgarian too much, with Murray playing his best tennis of the year just now and confidence at a high.

The opening match of the day is an intriguing one, with Feli Lopez taking on Tomas Berdych for the 12th time in a career series that has been close at six wins to Lopez and five for the Czech.

Berdych should have the motivation, with London qualification still not settled, but Lopez was good yesterday against Sam Querrey and he might not be a bad bet to win the opening set at a tempting 3.02/1.

Following on from that match will be Wawrinka facing Kevin Anderson for the sixth time, having lost the last two to the big South African, although I expect the Swiss will come through this time.

Stan, despite being a little lucky at the end of set two, played some of his best tennis in a fair old while yesterday and having already qualified for the O2 the Swiss should be able to play without any fear in this one.

It won't be easy though and the 4.30100/30 on the 2-1 win for Wawrinka appeals there.

Recommended Bets
Back Murray to beat Dimitrov at 1.558/15
Back Lopez to win set one vs Berdych at 3.02/1

Rumours: Has Jose found his long-term Terry replacement?

Is Pique the man for Stamford Bridge?

Chelsea know they need to replace John Terry at some point soon and has Jose found his man?

Chelsea are said to be have earmarked Barcelona defender Gerard Pique as John Terry's replacement and could move for him in January.

The Daily Star is reporting that the Blues are beginning to make preparations for Terry's eventual departure from Stamford Bridge, with the club captain set to turn 34 in December.

Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho originally wanted Real Madrid's Raphael Varane to succeed Terry but the Frenchman's decision to sign a long-term contract with the European champions this summer has ended any chance of a deal taking place.

Instead, Mourinho wants to bring in Pique and is ready to offer 24million for the Spain international in January.

Bet 10 Get 30 with Betfair Plus Money Back if you Lose

Another Barcelona player ready to leave the Nou Camp for good is Alex Song, who has revealed he wants to return to England.

The Cameroon midfielder is currently on loan at West Ham for the season and has been one of the driving forces behind the Hammers' good start to the season.

Song has now told Sky Sports News he wants to stay in the Premier League but stopped short of revealing whether he would remain with West Ham beyond next summer.

"I think my future will be here. My family, everyone is happy here. I'm very happy to come back to England," said Song.

Staying in London, and Song's former club Arsenal are being linked with a move for Juventus defender Stephan Lichtsteiner in Italian media outlet Tuttosport.

The Swiss international is out of contract at the end of the season and has been linked with a move to Chelsea recently.

However, the Gunners are looking to steal a march on the Blues by completing the signing of Lichtsteiner in the January transfer window.

Arsenal are also said to be interested in Sevilla's defensive midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak, according to The Sun.

Arsene Wenger has sent scouts to watch the Poland international, who has done well in Spain signing joining from French side Reims for 4million last summer.

The 24-year-old has a buyout clause of 24million in his contract, though, and that could put Arsenal off.

Finally, Aston Villa are looking to raid West Midlands rivals' Wolves to sign forward Bakary Sako in January.

The Mali international has banged in seven goals in the Championship this season and, with Villa struggling to find the back of the net, the Daily Mirror says a bid could be forthcoming.

Sako's contract expires at the end of the season and the Villans are hoping an offer of 2million might be enough to tempt Wolves to sell.

BNP Paribas Masters Betting: The Lendl legacy that has brought Murray back to his best

Celebrations in Valencia for Andy Murray... and there could be more to come

Andy Murray's roller coaster year looks like ending on a high as he searches this week for a place in the ATP World Tour finals. Ralph Ellis is backing him to do more than just qualify for the O2...

Andy Murray got his first Grand Slam titles out of working with Ivan Lendl, but he also got something more. He got to understand that his body works best when he's playing regularly, and not when he's trying to pick and choose his tournaments.

It was Lendl who convinced him to enter more minor competitions to get himself used to the feeling of winning every day. When he came to the big occasions at the Olympics and Wimbledon he'd learned how to handle the whole process.

Lendl might have long ago been consigned to Murray's long list of former coaches, but his legacy remains and might just be about to give the Scot a wonderful end to a topsy turvy season.

When Murray beat Tommy Robredo on Sunday night in a gruelling Valencia Open final which lasted three hours and 20 minutes it was his 20th match in five weeks. He'd started the process trying to win himself a place in the top eight to help his seeding at the start of next year - he'd ended it by rediscovering that winning breeds winning.

It means he is going into this week's BNP Paribas Masters with a completely different agenda. Only a few days ago he'd have expected his aim was to do well enough to qualify for the ATP World Tour finals in London. Now he'll be looking at landing odds of 13.5n/a to add yet another title to his recent collection.

Murray only needs to reach the quarter-finals to make it to the multi-million end of season jamboree at the O2 Arena, and starts on the quest by playing veteran Frenchman Julian Benneteau on Wednesday afternoon. He's 1.351/3 to make that one more win in his remarkable end of season sequence, and for all that the world number 28 is a dangerous opponent it's hard to see that he won't get through.

The Scot was talking on Tuesday about his recovery from that epic final against Robredo, extolling the benefits of his ice bath straight after the match was over. He looked and sounded refreshed and ready to go again.

"My body is getting used to playing matches and recovering well, which at the beginning of the year wasn't the case," he said. "In my first event in January I was in bits after playing for an hour."

In short, he isn't just fit but match fit and that might give him a serious advantage against the other big guns lined up in Paris. Novak Djokovic has gone through an inconsistent spell, suggesting he's allowed the twin pressures of marriage and fatherhood to chip at his normally ferocious training regimes. Meanwhile Roger Federer's attempts to defy the years have often failed at the final hurdles.

Murray is a man who has found once more the joy of playing, of knowing he can trust his back to let him hit shots that a year ago were causing him agony. When he was last in Paris for the French Open he didn't have the stamina to survive. This week is a very different matter.

BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: In-form Sock can cause a shock against Raonic

Jack Sock can cause problems for Milos Raonic today

Andy Murray is among those in action at the BNP Paribas Masters on Wednesday and Sean Calvert is back with his best bets on day three in Bercy...

Round two action is the order of the day in Bercy on Wednesday, with plenty of star quality to be found at the Palais Omnisports today.

Andy Murray is one those in action and he'll be facing the mercurial talents of Julien Benneteau in what looks just one of several tough matches for the short priced favourites in Paris today.

Murray may still be feeling the effects of that epic Valencia final that had an exasperated Tommy Robredo flipping him the double bird on Sunday on top of a very tough late season schedule.

What the Brit doesn't need is Benny bouncing around like a spring lamb across the net in his home Masters and with a potential place in the Davis Cup team up for grabs as his motivation.

Murray has a perfect record against Benneteau, but they haven't met for a while - only twice in the last five years - and Murray will need to be sharp here to avoid a potentially damaging first round loss.

He looks highly likely to qualify for the World Tour Finals anyway and will do if he makes the last eight this week, but the bet here might be on Benny to win a set at 1.9210/11.

Another London contender who may struggle is Milos Raonic, who, despite a 5-1 career lead over Jack Sock, isn't playing good tennis right now, while Sock is in prime form.

The head-to-head is a little misleading, as four of their last five sets have been won on tie breaks, and on his lack of form last week in Basel and recent illness the Canadian is worth taking on here.

Sock is at a career high in the rankings right now and has really found some form in the latter half of the season, with wins over the likes of Kei Nishikori and John Isner, while he impressed in victories over Bernard Tomic and Pablo Andujar here this week.

An improvement on the backhand side and a better attitude is all he really needed to be dangerous and while the tie break is worth backing again the value might lie with Sock outright here at 3.259/4.

Sock to win set one on the tie break is a 5.85/1 shot, with Raonic by the same score a 4.57/2 chance and either should give a run for your money, but despite the Canadian needing points for his London bid he doesn't look in good form or mood at all and I'll take a chance on the Chipotle-loving American here.

That one begins at 09:30 UK time, as does another similarly priced match between Dominic Thiem and Stan Wawrinka and we have to take Wawrinka on in some way here.

Taking on Novak Djokovic didn't pay off yesterday, but Stan is in woeful form and confidence is low right now. He looks there for the taking if Thiem hits form.

The young Austrian beat Wawrinka earlier in the season on clay and these slow courts in Bercy should give Thiem a chance of repeating that success, with Wawrinka on a losing streak and playing some poor tennis.

The overs is tempting here, but I'm going to go a little circumspect on this one, and side with Thiem to win a set at 1.684/6, as he may fade this late into a long, tough season.

Recommended Bets
Back Sock to beat Raonic at 3.259/4
Back Thiem to win a set vs Wawrinka at 1.684/6

Premier League: RVP's late show readies Manchester United to make their move

Van Persie daring to celebrate a goal here

There were shades of the Manchester United of old on Sunday when they scored in Fergie Time to nab a point against Chelsea and Andy Brassell says there were enough encouraging signs to suggest Louis van Gaal's men can get a result in the Manchester derby next weekend...

Sometimes, the extent of partisanship between football behemoths still has the potential to surprise. The willy-waving that goes on via social media whenever two of the Premier League's biggest clubs meet is par for the course.

What was slightly more difficult to believe were the suggestions from some quarters that Manchester United's players and supporters should have been in some way ashamed of enjoying Robin van Persie's last-ditch equaliser against Chelsea with such gleeful abandon, as if it was confirmation of a diminished status.

That's nonsense. Van Persie's goal was a personal and collective triumph, showing United could still compete with the very best - which Chelsea undoubtedly are in England, even with a few key absentees (they are just 8/1 to go the whole season unbeaten on the Sportsbook, which says a lot).

The reason above all others that this most dramatic of equalisers really deserved to be celebrated, of course, was that it felt like the start of something. 

Almost - if not entirely - regardless of the result, United played like United, at last. They were still full of flaw, but were constantly on the front foot, even without Radamel Falcao and Wayne Rooney, taking the initiative and playing with a semblance of belief.

Much of the credit for this should go to a pair of figures largely marginalised to date under Louis van Gaal. Adnan Januzaj and Marouane Fellaini, in contrasting ways, showed exactly the sort of bravery that will be necessary to crack the top four anew.

The defence is still the major cause for concern, and will continue to be until some stability is found, with the pair of Chris Smalling and Marcos Rojo against Chelsea their eighth different centre-back partnership in ten games this season.

Whether Rojo should be playing at centre-back at all in a four-man defence is another question, having stiffed there for Spartak Moscow when he originally left South America, and then in a poor start to his Sporting Clube de Portugal career before going on to flourish. He was outstanding as a left-back, of course, in Argentina's run to the World Cup final.

What is certainly clear is that he lacks a guide as he tries to bed down in England. The confirmation on the morning of the game that Phil Jones would be unfit was another blow in this respect, with the former Blackburn man still feeling like the most likely to take up the unoccupied mantle of leader in United's defence.

That vacuum was acutely noticeable against Chelsea, even in the delirium of Van Persie's leveller. Seeing Thibaut Courtois, Branislav Ivanovic, Didier Drogba and the inevitable John Terry all taking turns to marshall the visiting defence underlined the lack of someone to do the same for Van Gaal's men. The nearest that either Smalling or Rojo got to that sort of authority was their unpunished wrestling of Ivanovic and Terry, respectively.

In the circumstances, attack may well be the best form of defence for the visit to Manchester City for derby day, on Sunday.

Given the vulnerability demonstrated by Manuel Pellegrini's men in Saturday's defeat at West Ham, that has a chance of working well, especially with the impetus on City to make the running at home.

With Rooney and Falcao set to be available again - and with ngel Di Maria well-rested with no midweek action - the more daring of you might fancy a punt on United to win the derby at 4.57/2.

The draw is available at 4.03/1, if you're feeling a little less bold, and appears attainable if we're using the Chelsea game as a yardstick to say United can handle big occasions again.

All of a sudden, the future as promised by Van Gaal seems a lot closer.  

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Serie A Tips: Goals for Genoa, Milan and a Lazio striker

Filip Djordjevic has enjoyed a near-instant impact at Lazio

There are four televised Serie A fixtures this midweek; Michael Lintorn recommends a bet for each...

Sassuolo v Empoli
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on ESPN and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Sassuolo 2.245/4, Empoli 3.711/4, The Draw 3.45n/a

Sassuolo obtained their first Serie A victory of the campaign at Parma on matchday eight while Empoli were beaten 0-4 at home by Cagliari, so the natural conclusion from those results is that the home win is a big price. However, Sassuolo have won just twice in 14 Serie A outings as hosts and Empoli hadn't lost in six before their weekend aberration. Both sides have drawn a league-high four of their opening eight games.

Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ 3.45n/a

Cagliari v AC Milan
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Cagliari 3.55n/a, AC Milan 2.226/5, The Draw 3.55n/a

After an inauspicious start, Cagliari have really taken off in their last four matches, conquering Inter 4-1 and Empoli 4-0, as well as holding fourth-placed Sampdoria to a 2-2 draw. As with any Zdenek Zeman-coached team, there is plenty of entertainment along the way. Their fixtures average three goals, while AC Milan's rack up 3.5 - the joint-fifth and second highest figures in Serie A respectively - so over 2.5 goals is the obvious punt.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Genoa v Juventus
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Genoa 8.27/1, Juventus 1.558/15, The Draw 4.1n/a

Juventus have a three-point lead at the top of Serie A following Roma's weekend draw with Sampdoria but if there is a fault to be picked, it is that they have conceded five goals in five games - keeping only one clean sheet - since surrendering their ten-match shutout streak. Genoa have netted five times in their last three encounters, with summer signings Alessandro Matri and Mauricio Pinilla scoring seven between them already.

Recommended Bet: Back Juventus not to keep a clean sheet @ 1.855/6

Verona v Lazio
Thursday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Verona 3.45n/a, Lazio 2.285/4, The Draw 3.55/2

The statistics favour the Lazio triumph - they have won four in a row, whereas Verona have lost three in four - but the Gialloblu are decent enough hosts (one defeat in seven) to encourage slight caution. Instead, it is Lazio forward Filip Djordjevic's five goals in four appearances, including four in two away, that intrigues most, with the Serbian summer signing succeeding in lessening the capital club's dependence on Miroslav Klose.

Recommended Bet: Back Djordjevic to score @ 2.915/8

What next for Chelsea and Manchester United?

Thibaut Courtois has proved his class so far this season

After playing out a 1-1 draw on Sunday, Alex Johnson looks into what is next for the two Premier League giants.

Seconds after Robin van Persie's equaliser, Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho embraced at the end of their first meeting in four years.

They are due to meet again in April - by which time we will know if the Dutchman has been able to turn the listing oil tanker on the high seas (that United appear to be) onto the correct course that his Portuguese protg is already steering.

Sunday's over-hyped clash provided a late twist after Chelsea again failed to hold onto a 1-0 lead in Manchester.

United fans were largely of the opinion that it was the best their side have played under Van Gaal and the celebrations that went on at Old Trafford in the 94th minute highlight how their horizons have shifted in the 17 months since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

Mourinho looked a touch miffed but his demeanour suggested that he felt the referee had cost his side victory.

Chelsea had a very good penalty claim turned down in the first half when it was still 0-0 and picked up seven yellow cards (leading to Branislav Ivanovic's red) to United's three in a match where the visitors committed only one more foul than the hosts.

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The Serbian's dismissal surely played a part in the equaliser, but Chelsea had already surrendered the initiative that Dider Drogba's 53rd minute opener had given them long before Van Persie struck.

Analysis of possession and average player position stats demonstrates how Chelsea's players dropped deeper, subconsciously maybe, in the minutes that followed their best spell in the game.

Chelsea had 64 per cent of the ball in the ten minutes that preceded the opener, with Eden Hazard weaving his magic to go through one-on-one just prior to the set-piece goal.

But they switched off to allow United back into the game straight after that with Chelsea keeping possession for only 45% in the next ten minutes - figures which mirror their performance at the Etihad Stadium in September when they went from 55% possession in the 10 minutes before Andre Schurrle's goal to 26% possession in the 10 minutes after - and Manchester City had 10 men.

That's something for Mourinho's men to work on if they are going to sweep all before them this season, but to remain unbeaten through the first three months is impressive and gives Chelsea a chance of matching Arsenal's 'Invincibles'.

Thibaut Courtois again demonstrated why Petr Cech can barely get a game, denying Van Persie in a couple of huge moments when the match was in the balance.

He continues to bail out the occasional slip from a defence which looks great on paper but need to keep more clean sheets to satisfy their manager.

And let's not forget that Mourinho was without four key players in Diego Costa, Loic Remy, Cesar Azpilicueta and Ramires.

Chelsea's squad is the deepest in the land and it will be tested, particularly if Costa's injury woes that dogged him last season are back again, but they are on "another level" to anyone else in England, according to Gary Neville.

United had to play their best game just to live with a below-par Chelsea side but will have their confidence boosted before the Manchester derby.

The 'never say die' attitude that pervaded the Ferguson era is back and there are visible foundations to build on with the link-up between teenagers Luke Shaw and Adnan Januzaj on the left particularly encouraging.

Juan Mata may have failed to stake a claim to keep his place once Wayne Rooney returns, but Marouane Fellaini finally looks like he belongs in a red shirt and will be a useful option going forward.

But right now, United are just aiming for fourth place while Chelsea feel they can win all four trophies on offer.

Man City v Newcastle: Magpies to act star-struck again

Manuel Pellegrini's two-up-top approach has been criticised after successive setbacks against CSKA Moscow and West Ham

Newcastle have a terrible record against Man City, which Michael Lintorn expects to continue in the Capital One Cup...

Man City v Newcastle
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Man City 1.341/3, Newcastle 11.010/1, The Draw 6.05/1

At first glance, this Capital One Cup fourth-round tie appears ripe for an upset. Man City are fresh off the week from hell, surrendering a 2-0 lead to earn a solitary Champions League point away to CSKA Moscow then being beaten 1-2 at West Ham in the Premier League to slip six points behind Chelsea.

Newcastle by contrast have consigned some of the "Sack Pardew" banners to the recycling bin by achieving successive Premier League victories after a run of one of 15 prior to that. If a 1-0 win over Leicester was unlikely to wow critics, a from-behind triumph at Tottenham demanded a little respect.

While the Magpies have flip-flopped from fifth to 16th to tenth during their current four-and-a-half year Premier League stay, one constant has been their ability to upset the elite. They have won at Arsenal, Chelsea (twice), Man United and Tottenham (twice), as well as twice defeating Liverpool at St James' Park.

However, they have never managed to get Man City on their hook, last overcoming the champions in 2005, since when they have met 17 times. Newcastle have come off worst in all ten collisions since returning to the top tier in 2010, losing nine in 90 minutes and taking them to extra time once in a cup clash on Tyneside.

Alan Pardew also has some selection issues, with the standard Premier League club Capital One Cup rotation policy compromised by the fact that the two guys who delivered for the first XI at White Hart Lane - Sammy Ameobi and Ayoze Perez - would usually be judged part of the second string.

Man City Clean Sheet

The Man City clean sheet looks exceptional value at 2.265/4 given that the Capital One Cup holders shut Newcastle out in each of their previous five showdowns, which added up to eight hours of football.

The Citizens didn't give up a single goal to any of their three prior visitors in the competition, scoring an obscene 18 goals of their own, while Newcastle have fired blanks in seven of their past 11 trips to fellow Premier League teams.

Half With Most Goals

Man City v Newcastle is a symmetry-heavy fixture, with the goals divided evenly between the two halves. Their opening weekend encounter this term was 1-0 at half time and 2-0 at full time, last season they contested a 4-0, a 2-0 and a 0-0 which were 2-0, 1-0 and 0-0 at the interval, and their two 2012/13 games had the same equilibrium between halves one and two, with two goals in each.

Four of Newcastle's six away dates at top-flight sides in 2014/15 have also seen the same number of strikes in each 45-minute segment.

Best Bet: Back Man City to keep a clean sheet @ 2.265/4
Other Recommended Bet: Back both halves to have the same number of goals @ 4.03/1

Football Bet of the Day: Italy still the place to be for goals galore

Claudio Foscarini's Cittadella are an entertaining team

After a winning start to the week, Kevin Hatchard has taken the unusual decision to stay put, and bring us another selection from Italy.

Cittadella v Livorno
Tuesday October 28, 19:30

We said Trapani were an Overs backer's dream, and that dream came true last night. The Garnets took the lead after just five minutes (yesterday's poster boy Matteo Mancosu hit the target again), and by the 64th minute, Bologna had turned it around to lead 2-1 and land our wager. If you're interested, it stayed 2-1. If you're not, I just told you anyway.

Now I know my job is to take you around the globe, but we're doing something unusual and staying in the same country, and the same league. Stop moaning - I've told Alfredo to upgrade your room at the hotel, and we'll go to that lovely pizzeria later.

The reason we're staying in Italy's Serie B is that there's another Over 2.5 Goals bet where the price looks too big to ignore. Livorno, who are fifth in the standings, are travelling to face 19th-placed Cittadella.

Cittadella have scored 15 goals in ten games, and shipped 17. Seven of their ten league matches have featured three goals or more, and if you extend the statistics to all competitions, that figure becomes nine games out of 12. Claudio Foscarini's men are still looking for their first clean sheet of the campaign, and they have only failed to score twice.

Livorno are much more solid defensively, having leaked just seven league goals. However, Overs backers can take encouragement from their recent form in front of goal. The Mullets (the fish, not the hairstyle) have bashed in ten goals in their last three games, and against this permeable Cittadella defence they could have a field day.

I suspect the price of 2.3611/8 for Over 2.5 Goals is based on the fact that just four of Livorno's 11 games have featured three goals or more, but they have upped their game offensively, and Cittadella are a freewheeling side who score and concede goals regularly.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.3611/8

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 43

Points Returned: 41.94

P/L: -1.06 points

Betfair Live Video: Lierge not up to Standard against Anderlecht

Vukomanovic takes the reigns for Standard...

Reuben Thomas checks in on the champions in Belgium and Portugal and previews two top clashes available on Betfair Live video this Sunday...

Anderlecht vs Standard
Sunday 17:00

Sunday afternoon and a big rivalry from the Belgian Jupiler league as last year's top two face off in Brussels.

After eleven games gone champions Anderlecht again lead the way as they go in hunt of their fourth straight title. They have four wins and a draw from their first five home games and you need to go back to April to find their last loss in the league.

In midweek they looked to be claiming a famous win over Arsenal only to disappointingly drop their concentration levels late on and concede two heartbreaking goals. It was an unjust result and they will be determined to get it out of their system with a win on Sunday.

Despite their impressive showings so far this season that loss to Arsenal made it four matches without a win and coach Besnick Hasi will be concerned they are not scoring at the same rate they managed last year.

Strikers Cyriac and Archeampong worked tirelessly on Wednesday night and they may be rested with the more dangerous pair of Suarez and Mitrovic to start. Young Serbian striker Aleksandar Mitrovic looks a superstar in the making and leads the goal scoring charts.

Visitors Standard Lierge are in disarray. After running their old foes Anderlecht so close last year this season has begun awfully. After ten games they find themselves in eleventh spot and are conceding over two goals a game.

Last week whilst trailing Zulte the 'Rouches' fans finally lost patience and started vandalising their stadium leading the game to be abandoned. In the wake of those ugly scenes their manager Guy Lazon, who had performed so admirably last season decided enough was enough and fell on his sword.

This weekend will see Ivan Vukomanovic take control of first team affairs in the league for the first time in his career and his job couldn't be harder considering the fixture.

Standard are without a win in five but their away form has been better than their home performances and a battling goalless draw with Sevilla on Thursday suggested there was still a lot of fight in the squad.

Don't expect a walkover but Anderlecht's impressive recent record against Standard should continue.

Recommended Bets:
Back Anderlecht to win @ 1.625/8
Back an Anderlecht clean sheet @ 2.568/5

Braga vs Benfica
Sunday 20:15

Sunday evening's action comes from 'The Quarry' in Braga as Champions Benfica attempt to continue their blistering start to the season.

Benfica are sitting pretty in top spot and are four points clear of Porto already, Jorge Jesus' side are again looking the pick of the pack in Portugal with six wins and a draw from their opening seven fixtures.

Despite the losses of some key names in the summer Benfica can still boast the likes of Gaitan, Salvio and Lima amongst their ranks and the emergence of the Brazilian attacking midfielder Talisca has been particularly pleasing for 'The Eagles' this year, he has notched six goals already.

Benfica's away form has been sensational recently; with their last three outings they have accumulated nine points and nine goals. All form points towards an away win however they traveled to Monaco on Thursday for a hard fought goalless draw in the Champions league and could be fatigued.

Hoping to capitalise on that tiredness will be Sergio Conceicao's Sporting Braga side team who have looked dominant at home so far this season.

Braga traditionally are hard to beat in their unique stadium, a resolute defence has been the basis to three home wins in which they have scored eight and conceded one so far this season. Their star man has been Ze Luis, the striker from Cape Verde and he will likely pose their biggest threat on Sunday evening.

Home or away Benfica are favourites in this league unless they are playing one of the other 'Tres Grandes' but this Sunday offers a rare opportunity to oppose the champions who may be the less energetic after their midweek exploits.

Recommended Bets:
Back Braga to win @ 4.67/2

Premier League Review - Chelsea stay top, QPR off the bottom

Charlie Austin grabbed a brace on Monday night

Chelsea dropped two points whilst Charlie Austin scored twice. We round-up the weekend action in the Premier League.

Chelsea continue to top the Premier League after nine games and now Southampton sit second after Manchester City lost ground.

The big game of the weekend came on Sunday as Manchester United produced a dramatic finale to snatch a late 1-1 draw with Chelsea. It was a case of the master versus the apprentice in the dug-outs as old friends Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho faced off, but the Blues boss is likely to see this as two points dropped.

Chelsea went ahead through Didier Drogba's first Premier League goal since his return, but the big question has to be why was the tiny Rafael marking Drogba on corners? United continue to look all-over-the-place in defence and were thankful to Robin van Persie for rescuing a point. After Branislav Ivanovic was shown a second yellow card, Thibaut Courtois produced a brilliant save from Marouane Fellaini but Van Persie was on hand to smash in the rebound. It sparked massive celebrations around Old Trafford but this result does little to mask over the frailties in Van Gaal's side. Mourinho will be frustrated, but Chelsea still sit four points clear at the top of the table.

Southampton continued their fantastic start to the season to claim second place after a Sadio Mane goal secured all three points in a 1-0 victory over Stoke. It was a fourth consecutive win at St Mary's for the Saints as Ronald Koeman's revolution on the South Coast continues. Southampton were full of confidence and should have scored more as they were in control throughout the game - it is currently exciting times on the South Coast for Saints' fans.

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Defending champions Manchester City slip to third after they went down to a 2-1 defeat to West Ham, who are now only a place behind City. Manuel Pellegrini's side have struggled to match the performances of last season and looked jaded for periods in a lacklustre performance at Upton Park. Goals from Morgan Amalfitano and Diafra Sakho - who has now scored in six straight league games - gave the Hammers a memorable victory. Sam Allardyce's troops are revitalised this season and look really dangerous going forward. The manager has added quality in all the right areas and the West Ham fans are now reaping the rewards. City can count themselves fortunate that Man United did them a favour to limit Chelsea to only one point on Sunday. As it is, City are six points behind the leaders and need to improve dramatically to hold onto Chelsea's coat-tails.

Arsenal are three points behind City in fifth after they heaped more problems on Sunderland's Gus Poyet with a 2-0 win at the Stadium of Light. After last week's 8-0 embarrassment at Southampton, the Black Cats could have done with a pick-me-up. But a terrible mistake from Wes Brown gifted Alexis Sanchez the first of his two goals. A Vito Mannone-error allowed the Chilean international his second late on. In truth, Arsenal didn't boss this game and were thankful in the end to two big errors to give them both goals. Arsene Wenger's side didn't really create many great chances and will be relieved to return to North London with three points. For Sunderland, it is now important to cut out such dreadful errors if they are to climb out of the bottom three.

Wilfried Bony struck twice to end Swansea's five-game run without a win as they beat Leicester 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium. While it was a relief to Garry Monk to finally get a win, it is troubling times for Nigel Pearson. Leicester, after starting the season in good form, are now without a win in four and they look short of goals. Swansea are up to sixth in the table, while Leicester have slipped to 17th.

Liverpool are languishing down in seventh and continue to be frustrated by their struggles to score. Their latest woes came in the weekend's 0-0 draw with Hull, after which many of the headlines were taken by Mario Balotelli's continuing goal drought. It is worrying times for Liverpool fans as they have won only four of nine game so far and have slipped nine points behind Chelsea. Hull are going well in 10th position and Steve Bruce will be over-joyed to have taken successive points at the Emirates and Anfield. The Tigers even had the better chances to win the game towards the end.

There are also big issues at Tottenham as they succumbed to a 2-1 home defeat to struggling Newcastle on Sunday. Spurs have won only one in seven and, after taking the lead through Emmanuel Adebayor, many fans would have expected an easy victory. But second half goals from Sammy Ameobi - which came seconds after the restart - and Ayoze Perez gave Newcastle a turnaround three points. Large sections of Spurs fans have been left frustrated by a lack of fight from their players and this isn't how many would have expected the Mauricio Pochettino era to have begun at White Hart Lane.

Burnley are still without a win and now sit bottom of the Premier League after Everton easily beat them 3-1 at Turf Moor. Samuel Eto'o scored twice and Romelu Lukaku got one as Everton continue to recover from their poor start and climb into the top ten of the Premier League. It is worrying times for Burnley as they look a bit out of their depth in the Premier League. Despite Danny Ings' strike on Sunday, they still look woefully short of goals.

While Burnley desperately seek goals, West Brom have a hot striker at the moment. Saido Berahino got his sixth in five games in injury-time to rescue West Brom a point in a 2-2 draw at the Hawthorns. Palace had been 2-0 up at half-time and Neil Warnock will rue their second half capitulation, as they were impressive in the first half. The Baggies showed fight to get back into it and the introduction of Victor Anichebe breathed new life into them, allowing that second half comeback that was capped off by Berahino from the spot after Anichebe had been fouled by Mile Jedinak in the box.

QPR lifted themselves off the bottom of the Premier League as two Charlie Austin goals secured a 2-0 victory over Aston Villa on Monday night. Harry Redknapp will hope this victory can inspire a resurgence for the Hoops, but it is really worrying times at Villa. Paul Lambert's team have now lost five games in a row and have not scored a goal during those matches. After a promising start for Villa, their season is starting to unravel and they have dropped to 15th, leading fans to worry about the prospects of a third consecutive relegation battle.