World Cup 2014: England must be wary of Italy ambush

Italy rarely produce their best form in pre-tournament friendlies

Michael Lintorn warns against reading too much into Italy's terrible friendly form as their clash with England approaches...

Any England fans disappointed by their 2-2 draw with Ecuador, but heartened by the knowledge that Group D rivals Italy were held at home by Luxembourg would be wise not to play too much attention to the Azzurri's lack of pre-World Cup momentum.

The hiccup in Perugia followed a 0-0 draw with Republic of Ireland, another nation not attending the World Cup, four days earlier. In total, Cesare Prandelli's side have gone seven games without victory, a sequence that started after they secured qualification by beating Czech Republic 2-1 last summer.

However, history teaches that Italy are at their most dangerous when they appear to be most vulnerable. They lost their final three matches before Euro 2012 without scoring, then held Spain in their opening fixture and went on to reach the final.

Their unexpected World Cup 2006 triumph was preceded by another pair of 0-0 and 1-1 spoil-sharers - on that occasion against Ukraine and Switzerland - not to mention the outbreak of the Serie A-decapitating Calciopoli scandal.

Similarly, they lost to Norway eight days prior to their Euro 2000 opener and wound up as tournament runners-up, and even managed to squeeze in a defeat to fourth-tier Italian club Pontedera ahead of their run to the World Cup 1994 final.

Prandelli claims that experimentation rather than success is his main aspiration in friendly combat, and that he was also taking care not to leave many tactical clues. Many Betfair punters are seemingly wise to Italy's sandbagging, with the four-time World Cup winners 2.767/4 to conquer England.

The Three Lions are 3.1511/5 to prevail in Manaus, but - unlike at Euro 2012 - they won't have Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to call upon in their first encounter judging by reports that the knee injury that he suffered against Ecuador will rule him out for between ten days and three weeks.

If the final medical verdict veers closer to the latter projection, either Jon Flanagan or John Stones is perhaps the most likely of the standby options to be brought in as they are already with the squad.

Though England were far from flawless at the Sun Life Stadium and Oxlade-Chamberlain's departure was a blow, there were several positives, including a lively first start for Ross Barkley and goals for Rickie Lambert and Wayne Rooney.

Roy Hodgson's men are 3.259/4 third favourites to top Group D behind Italy at 2.89/5 and Uruguay at 3.052/1.