Men's French Open Betting: Nadal to win, but Murray can start strong

Can Murray finally get the better of Nadal on clay?

Andy Murray takes on Rafael Nadal in the semi finals of the 2014 French Open on Friday and Sean Calvert thinks that there's a bit of value to be had on the Brit...

Gael Monfils and Andy Murray played out the kind of bizarre clash that we were all expecting on Wednesday and it ended up costing me, as my 3-1 Murray prediction was stopped in its tracks in the fourth set.

Indeed, it was that odd an encounter that the overs failed to land, despite five sets and total games backers would have been seething at Lamonf's collapse in the decider in the fading light of Chatrier.

At the same time on Lenglen, Murray's semi final opponent on Friday, Rafa Nadal, was playing out a similarly odd match with David Ferrer, who essentially quit after the second set.

Ferrer admitted that he mentally "threw in the towel" after losing the second set of that match, despite playing at least equally as well as his opponent, who in truth was far from his best in the opening sets.

Indeed, Rafa's backhand was little short of putrid for much of the Ferrer match and any repeat of that sort of start against Murray on Friday would lead to problems for the Spaniard.

Ferrer came out fighting in that one and took the game to Rafa, which is a fine tactic and with Murray knowing exactly what to do after pummelling Rafa in the first set of their Rome meeting, the early betting looks the call in this one.

In that clay clash around three weeks ago Murray came out and blitzed Nadal with some of the best attacking tennis he's played anywhere on any surface at any time and I'd be amazed if those weren't his tactics again - whether he pulls it off is another question.

The Scot was a 6-1 winner in set one that day in Rome and the same scoreline again here is an 81.0n/a shot if you fancy a repeat.

Murray to win 6-3 is a 15.014/1 shot and that looks like it has a decent chance, but the 4.03/1 about him winning that first set by any score looks the one to me here.

Alternatively, the 3-1 to Nadal looks pretty good as well, with Murray unlikely to win more than a single set here and that's a 3.7511/4 shot, but it's hard to see Andy getting back into the match if he goes a set down to Rafa and I prefer his chances in set one.

The last time they met here in a semi final ended in a 6-4, 7-5, 6-4 win for the world number one and the Murray +6.5 games has a chance, but with grass next week and two five set matches under his belt already the Brit could fade late on.

As for the mystery back ailment that Rafa was talking about earlier in the tournament I'm not so sure that it's gone away, as he didn't look comfortable at all during the Ferrer match in the early stages and perhaps it takes a while to fully loosen up at the moment.

That could be another reason to back Murray in the opener and it looks worth chancing in what will surely be another grinding win for the defending champion en route to yet another clash with Novak Djokovic in Sunday's final.

But it's worth keeping in mind that Andy still has a 1-12 record against top-10 ranked players on clay, with his 2009 win over Nikolay Davydenko the one victory to his name.

There will also be individual game betting available on this match, which will take place on Friday afternoon.

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal to win 3-1 at 3.7511/4

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Murray to win set one at 4.03/1