The Big Match Tactical View: England v Italy

Can Wayne Rooney stop Andrea Pirlo this time?

England start their World Cup campaign with a huge game against three-times champions, Italy in the humidity of Manaus. Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the action and pull out the best bets.

England v Italy
Saturday 23:00, BBC One
Match Odds: England 3.052/1, Italy 2.915/8, The Draw 3.02/1

England's first game of World Cup 2014 is against the side that dumped them out of Euro 2012 - and Roy Hodgson's side must learn their lessons if they're to record a victory.

Italy might have only won the contest on penalties, but they were completely dominant throughout the encounter, with Juventus' Andrea Pirlo the clear star with his excellent long-range passing from the base of Italy's midfield.

Wayne Rooney was widely blamed for his inability to mark Pirlo, and it would be a slight surprise if Hodgson fielded him as England's number ten here, because it would risk Pirlo dominating once again.

The alternative is to switch Rooney and Danny Welbeck, who is very much capable of a marking job on an opposition deep-lying playmaker, and the fact England tried Rooney on the left in a recent friendly against Ecuador suggests Hodgson has certainly considered this option.

England's problem, however, is that they don't know Italy's formation. Cesare Prandelli has been experimenting with various shapes in recent weeks, and clearly trying to disguise his probable system. "If you can't work out the formation," he told journalists recently, "Then I am doing my job!"

However, Prandelli looks set to use a diamond midfield, with two men upfront. Prandelli has favoured a 4-3-2-1 and a 3-5-2 at some points, but Ciro Immobile's hat-trick against Fluminese in Italy's final warm-up game has surely played him into the side alongside Mario Balotelli. That combination offers sheer pace in behind the defence, and if England don't pressure the Italian midfield, Italy - and Pirlo in particular - will constantly loft balls over the top.

Prandelli's major headache is the absence of Mattia De Sciglio, who was due to play left-back. He's picked up an injury, however, which means Giorgio Chiellini moving across to left-back and his Juventus teammate Leonardo Bonucci coming into the centre of defence. It's questionable how much this actually weakens Italy, though - it furthers the Juventus connection at the back, and Chiellini is perfectly comfortable on the left of defence. His only slight weakness is against pace down the outside, but England seem likely to field Adam Lallana on the right, rather than a speedy winger.

England's best bet is to play with great speed. This is an excellent Italian backline, but more comfortable when defending with men behind the ball, and when challenging opponents physically.

Although keeping possession will be important in the horrendous conditions of Manaus, England shouldn't sacrifice the tremendous pace throughout the side, with Welbeck, Daniel Sturridge and Raheem Sterling - if he starts - all the type of players who will worry the Italian backine.

Jordan Henderson also has a crucial role in the side. He'll be fielded alongside Steven Gerrard and must offer the energy to ensure England aren't overrun in a midfield zone where they'll probably be outnumbered. The space in behind Gerrard is a real concern for England, and therefore Henderson must ensure he covers behind Gerrard, as well as sprinting forward in front of him.

The problem with the climatic conditions at this World Cup might be overplayed in general, but in Manaus there's no question it will have a huge impact upon the contest, which could play into the hands of the Italians. Prandelli's side naturally play at a slower tempo than England and boast the ability to dominate possession, gradually wearing down their opponents. This could be crucial in the second half, when tiredness sets in.

But England generally start tournaments well - in fact, they've scored before they've conceded in their last ten major tournament appearances, but the lead rarely lasts until full-time. I predict a fast England start, and a half-time lead - before Italy dominate the second period.

Then, it will be up to Hodgson to introduce a substitute, perhaps Sterling, to offer some fresh legs going the other way.

There are various ways to play this, of course, but I like the look of England to be ahead at half-time, but Italy to fight back and record a point, at around 18.017/1 

Recommended Bets
Back England / Draw in Half Time / Full Time at 18.017/1

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Italy had a hugely disappointing tournament in South Africa, unable to win a game in a group containing Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand. However, since then under the management of Cesare Prandelli they have only been beaten three times in 31 competitive games, defeats coming against Spain (twice) and Brazil. They also reached the Euro 2012 final, which ultimately ended poorly with a 4-0 defeat but it was a vast improvement on their 2010 effort.

England’s 2010 World Cup campaign wasn’t much better, they managed to get through their “weak” group in second place but that just meant having to face Germany in the last 16 and that was the end of the tournament.

Much has been written about the weather conditions both teams will have to contend with in Manaus and the pitch is also being reported as below par and very bumpy. While I think both sides will show each other respect their starting XIs will be interesting – both sides will be very cautious which suggests a low-scoring match is the likely outcome. In their last two major international tournaments (2010 WC & 2012 Euro) both these sides' opening fixtures ended 1-1 (for Italy v Paraguay in 2010, v Spain in 2012; for England v USA in 2010, v France in 2012).

Personally, I can’t see England winning this game and 3.0 in the match odds market is a layable price for me. I will also be getting involved with the correct score market with the following - 1-0 (Italy) @ 7 and 1-1 @ 7 with a saver on 0-0 @ 6.8 for my correct score stake. That should pay you approx 2-1 for the correct scores and “scratch” if game ends 0-0.