World Cup 2014: Betfair v the statistical analysts...

Are Brazil value at 3-1?

Some of the world's finest statistical analysts have crunched the numbers and they make Brazil near even money favourites to win the World Cup, so how come the Betfair price is so much bigger? 

What do Betfair customers know that the world's finest statistical brains don't? That is a question posed in an intriguing article in the Scientific American this week.  

In a short piece in the respected journal, space and physics editor Michael Moyer compares the disparity between statistical forecasts of the World Cup winner against available odds on Betfair. 

Moyer notes that the boffins at FiveThirtyEight, Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs all give Brazil a near 50% chance of winning the tournament. 

But Betfair's exchange customers have the Selecao - winners in the opening fixture last night of course - as 4.03/1 favourites, an implied 33% chance of lifting the trophy. 

Moyer questions 'What do they (betfair customers) know that the statisticians don't?'

It's a good question and there will be many theories regarding the answer - and please post your comments below if you want to have your say - but if you were convinced by the analysts' research (and there is a lot of it) then there is clearly massive value in Brazil's price on Betfair. 

A quick look at one of the models may have you raising your eyebrows, however. Bloomberg's data appears to be missing a certain something. How many tournaments have you seen that contain no games featuring one team scoring more than three goals, all four quarter finals settled by a 1-0 scoreline and 16 1-1 draws?!!