Ivory Coast v Japan: Attacking teams could produce a late-night goalfest

Didier Drogba will fancy his chances against Japan's suspect central defenders

This Group C game has the graveyard shift in the early hours of Sunday morning but, with both teams committed to attack, Andrew Atherley believes it's worth staying up for...

Ivory Coast v Japan
Sunday June 15, 02:00
Live on ITV1

Ivory Coast
This is the third consecutive finals appearance for Ivory Coast and probably the last chance for their golden generation, led by Yaya Toure and Didier Drogba, to shine on the world stage. In 2006 and 2010 they exited at the group stage but this time they do not face the same quality (they were drawn against Argentina and Holland in 2006 and Brazil and Portugal in 2010).

But they are sweating on Toure's fitness after a thigh injury, as the Manchester City midfielder has not played or taken part in a full training session since undergoing surgery last month.

Age is an issue (their starting line-up might contain six players in their 30s) but if they can raise themselves for one last time the quality is there - as well as Toure and Drogba, there is more Premier League experience in attack with Salomon Kalou and Gervinho (and with Swansea's Wilfried Bony in reserve).

Cheik Tiote of Newcastle will shield the defence and that will be a crucial role, as most of the back line (based around Liverpool's Kolo Toure) are in their 30s - the exception being Toulouse's highly rated 21-year-old right-back Serge Aurier.

Ivory Coast had a record of W5 D3 L0 in qualifying, while their recent friendly results have reinforced the impression of a side that is dangerous in attack against high-quality opponents but vulnerable at the back (2-2 v Belgium, a 2-1 defeat by Bosnia-Herzegovina and a 2-1 win over El Salvador).

Japan
Japan are appearing at their fifth consecutive finals, having made the last 16 in 2002 (as joint hosts) and 2010 and exited at the group stage in 1998 and 2006. They also have experience of Brazilian conditions after being invited to last year's Confederations Cup, although they lost all three games against tough opponents (3-0 v Brazil, 4-3 v Italy and 2-1 v Mexico).

Being drawn in Group C gives them hope of doing better on their return to Brazil and their prospects are likely to hinge on the attacking talents of Shinji Kagawa, Shinji Okazaki and Keisuke Honda. All three have an eye for goal and Japan's quick, passing style makes them dangerous when it clicks.

The defence is less impressive, with only two clean sheets (against Guatemala and Cyprus) in 17 matches in the past 12 months. Maya Yoshida and Yasuyuki Konno are likely to be paired in the centre, but neither is a commanding presence, although full-backs Atsuto Uchida and Yuto Nagatomo are good in both defence and attack.

Japan's warm-up games have told us nothing new, as they have been against low-quality opposition, but last autumn's friendly results against Holland (2-2) and Belgium (a 3-2 win) - as well as the scare they gave Italy in the Confederations Cup - underline the threat they pose.

Match Odds
Ivory Coast's early exits in 2006 and 2010 may disguise their good results against teams outside the elite - their defeats at World Cups have been against Argentina, Holland and Brazil, while their record otherwise is W3 D1 L0 (the draw coming against Portugal, another high-level opponent).

That indicates a good chance here, and so does their record of only two defeats in 28 competitive games (albeit many of them in Africa, often against lower-class teams) since the defeat by Brazil at the 2010 World Cup.

In particular, Drogba is likely to fancy his chances against the Yoshida-Konno pairing in the centre of Japan's defence.

On the other hand, Japan look set to pose problems of their own. Only Brazil shut them out in last year's Confederations Cup and it is worth noting that they have won both previous meetings with African teams at World Cup finals (2-0 v Tunisia in 2002 and 1-0 v Cameroon in 2010).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The stats from recent World Cups point to a glut of low-scoring games in the opening group games, but the trend is there to be bucked given the right match-up and this stands out as one of the best opportunities to do so.

Both sides are committed to attack, possibly because of their limitations in defence, and in the past year alone Japan have had 14 out of 17 over 2.5 goals (82%) and Ivory Coast have had six out of nine (67%).

Two good attacks and two questionable defences should equal goals and over 2.5 goals is tempting at 2.466/4. In addition, that may be the best Cash Out opportunity if there is an early goal or two.

Draw No Bet
This bet comes into its own in this type of match-up, where you can back your preference and have the safety net of money back in case of a draw  - not a bad option considering there was a 38% draw rate in the opening group games at the 2010 World Cup.

Ivory Coast's record is much more solid than many realise and, even with the doubts over Toure, they appear to have a bigger edge than the odds indicate. Being able to back them at 1.865/6 on the draw no bet looks an excellent wager. 

Remember to check out the Asian handicap odds too, as 0 on the Asian handicap is the same as draw no bet - at the time of writing Ivory Coast were slightly shorter at 1.845/6 in that market.  

Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.466/4 (2pts)
Back Ivory Coast on Draw No Bet at 1.865/6 (2pts)

Best Cash Out tip
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.466/4 and you can cash out early if the goals flow as expected