World Cup 2014: Perfect Punter - Part Three

Brazil striker Fred isn't in the Perfect Punter's good books

After a winning start to the World Cup, the Perfect Punter is on the hunt for more profits, and he's not writing off Spain's chances of retaining the trophy...

So, where were we? Oh yes, that's right, I'd just tipped Switzerland to win the World Cup. As I write this, I'm watching them lose to Ecuador, and for the first time at this extraordinary tournament, the chairs in front of the big screen at the broadcasting hub that's my home are largely empty. On every other day, they've been packed to bursting, it's been that kind of show so far. Still, at least it gives me a bit more space to spread myself out, wave away some mosquitos, and figure out where the hell we are after a few days of action.

Someone tweeted me after my first column of this competition and told me that I should watch the first round of games before making up my mind about anything. He has a point, and I would have thanked him for reminding me if he hadn't been just a little too self-assured, as people on Twitter can be, oh yes.

Not betting and just watching for 10 minutes of a game makes sense, as does watching 10% of a tournament. You'll miss a price or two, and if you'd had a fancy for Holland you'd be royally annoyed, but the early rounds of a major competition tell us a great deal, while markets don't move substantially. You have to enter your office sweepstake before the World Cup starts, but you don't have to play with your whole punting pot.

So what have we learned? I remain convinced that Brazil won't win the World Cup while David Luiz is playing at centre-back, and thought that they were stupidly lucky against Croatia. And I also learned that the majority of the folk to whom I talk in Rio don't really care how they win, as long as they win.

I spoke to a cafe owner the morning after that Fred moment, and when he asked me what I thought I said: "I hated him for diving, and hated him even more for thanking God for helping him cheat." He stared at me, and for a moment our previously awkward familiarity vanished. After holding me with a steady gaze, he simply said: "We won though, didn't we?" He held his gaze as he made my coffee and shook his head as he placed it in front of me. The message was clear, and my Espresso definitely tasted a bit funny.

It was strange that I was so annoyed by Fred's dive and the subsequent converted penalty, as it made sure that this column got off to a winning start, with the 2.111/10 about there being Over 2.5 Goals in that game copping comfortably. Worryingly, I appear to be developing a conscience. Maybe it's a by-product of middle age, or continuing jetlag. Or possibly a sign that the soul of football means more to me than gambling. Go figure.

We're nearly at half-time in the Switzerland game by the way, and I'm curiously optimistic. They might be losing, but they appear to be finding a rhythm. My theory that Xherdan Shaqiri is the reincarnation of Hristo Stoichkov is looking more sensible by the minute, and I'm contemplating backing them to come back and win this. But I won't. That would be impetuous and reactive, and I need to remember that I don't do that kind of thing anymore.

Onto other lessons. Mexico were better than I thought they would be, but are last 16 at best, Chile looked flat without Arturo Vidal fully fit, Uruguay are shot to pieces and Colombia were sensational to watch, but worried me defensively. I was confident pre-tournament that they could have a real go at winning this tournament, but now I'm not sure.

I'll leave the outright bet on Colombia running, but do so with decreasing confidence, although I think I'm in love with James Rodriguez, and that a World Cup crush is a healthy thing.

And then there was Spain. The Dutch are easy to fathom as this is classic Oranje behaviour: they'll shine brightly in the Group Stage and then it will all come crashing down. Maybe not in the last 16 against Mexico, but definitely before we get to the semi-final stage. Spain are intriguing. I don't buy for a second that this team has somehow faded and died, a sad echo of Barcelona, but rather that their attitude was all wrong.

Spain had control against the Dutch, and had David Silva scored to make it 2-0 then I'm confident that they would have gone on to win. And now I'm equally confident that their mojo will be back quicker than a Copacabana pickpocket.

Having already put them in my portfolio to win this World Cup at 7.413/2, I'm going in again at 15.014/1. I seriously think that they'll get through, beat Brazil and then have their tournament at their mercy. It was a shambles of a second-half performance, but La Roja should not be written off so soon.

Switzerland have just equalised, which has improved my mood, and so too did Italy's performance against England. I wish that Leonardo Bonucci was playing ahead of Gabriel Paletta, and that Cesare Prandelli would revert to playing with a back three, but I like the way that Italy controlled the game against England, and I think that they can go far, just not quite far enough.

Costa Rica were magnificent, the tournament has been an Over 2.5 Goals paradise, and I'm already trying to work out the Second Round Group game that will turn into a crazy back-and-forth chance fest. I'm banking on Cote D'Ivoire v Colombia. They both have an up and at 'em style, lots of class in front of goal, and neither look anywhere close to convincing defensively. Along with another outright punt on Spain, that's the other bet that will go into the portfolio. May the goals keep flowing.

Talking of which, Valon Behrami has just run like a lunatic, shrugged off a rugby tackle, and Switzerland have won. I just did a little dance, and thanked God for football.

Recommended Bets

Back Spain to win the World Cup @ 15.014/1Back Over 3.5 Goals in Ivory Coast v Colombia @ 3.7511/4

P/L on settled bets so far: 500 profit

What is the "Perfect Punter"?

In 2012, The Perfect Punter by Dave Farrar was published. Having reached a particular kind of punting meltdown, Dave decided to change his approach to betting and travel to the events that he had lost money on, trying to get closer to them, learn more about them, and turn a loss into a profit.

Dave is back, with his target the World Cup 2014. He’ll be in Rio for the duration of the tournament, and he’ll apply the Perfect Punter philosophy to the World Cup. So having made a profit on the events in his book, can Dave do it again?

His column will bring detailed analysis of his punting process and shine a light on every aspect of the World Cup.