World Cup 2014: All the elements suggest a low-scoring draw in England opener

Can this man make a second half impact for England?

A poor pitch, the stifling heat of Manaus, and both sides respecting each other knowing that a draw isn't a bad result are all factors that our man in the Amazon, Matt Stanger, believes will lead to a low-scoring stalemate between England and Italy...

England arrived in Manaus on Thursday afternoon to a warm reception from the locals, but that won't necessarily ease Roy Hodgson's worries ahead of what is expected to be a tight encounter with Italy.

The main concern for the manager is the state of the pitch at the Arena da Amazonia. Even the head groundsman has admitted there are problems with the dry, patchy surface, which may play a part in Hodgson's thinking as he prepares to name his starting XI.

"Frankly Manaus is in bad shape," Carlos Botella told reporters. "We've started to implement an emergency plan to try to save the field and improve it as much as possible, but I don't think it'll be in good condition by the weekend."

For skilful dribblers such as Raheem Sterling, a bobbly pitch is a nightmare. The 19-year-old has been tipped to replace Danny Welbeck in the team if the Manchester United forward fails to make a full recovery from a nagging thigh injury, but Hodgson may reconsider his plans knowing that one of Sterling's leading strengths will be hindered. Both players should be avoided in the First Goalscorer stakes.

Indeed, we may witness 90 minutes without a goal on Saturday, which won't be conducive to England fans staying awake until the final whistle at 12.45am. England beat Italy 2-1 in their last meeting in August 2012, but the pressure of the European Championship quarter-final three months before resulted in a cagey affair. With the added factor of the sweltering conditions in Manaus, backing another 0-0 draw at 6.611/2 is certainly tempting.

For the slightly more cautious, success can be found in the double-your-money offer of 3.02/1 about the draw. That result would leave both teams relatively happy with Uruguay and Costa Rica to come. It is perhaps worth considering that England arrive at the World Cup on the back of an arduous 0-0 draw with Honduras, while Italy scored only one goal in three international friendlies (which excludes the meeting with Fluminense) prior to the tournament.

The heat is bound to prove an issue and the residents of Manaus are enjoying a laugh at England's expense. They are hoping to be entertained, but remain realistic about the chances of a stalemate. If you were to offer odds of 1.9620/21 on the draw at half-time and 2.3611/8 on the score to be 0-0 after 45 minutes, the locals would definitely be happy to part with a few reais.

I remain cautiously optimistic about the Three Lions' hopes, with Hodgson possessing a rare advantage for an England manager in terms of the convincing options he has on the bench. Both Sterling and Ross Barkley have the potential to come on and turn the game in the final 20 minutes, while Rickie Lambert offers a powerful presence in the box. For that reason, 6.86/1 on a half-time draw/England win is an attractive bet.

The First Goalscorer market is tough to call. Wayne Rooney ended an England drought stretching back to October 2013 in the 2-2 draw against Ecuador, but he has failed to score in eight appearances at the World Cup and still looks short of match fitness. The Manchester United striker is priced at 8.27/1 to grab the first goal, just a tad higher than Mario Balotelli (7.87/1), with the smart money choosing the Italian.

I would avoid backing forwards, however, and look for value in defenders, remembering that Joleon Lescott claimed England's first goal at Euro 2012 when he headed home a Steven Gerrard free-kick. Set-pieces are again going to play a key role on Saturday and Phil Jagielka is a tempting shout at 55.054/1 for the first goal and 20.019/1 to score anytime.

Gary Cahill is considerably shorter at 29.028/1 to open the scoring, but still deserving of a small outlay after joining his defensive partner on the scoresheet in the 3-0 win over Peru.

The cards market suggests there will be plenty of fouls in a scrappy game, but it's worth noting that there were only two yellows in the 0-0 draw between these two sides at Euro 2012 - and only one inside 90 minutes. No-one will want to risk missing any of the tournament because of suspension, so backing another clean game - 25 points and under - at 3.1511/5 is something to consider.

Recommended Bets

Back The Draw @ 3.02/1
Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 6.611/2
Back Draw HT/England FT @ 6.86/1