World Cup 2014: Go for Portugal to get off to a World Cup flier

Nani is likely to start against Germany

European football expert Andy Brassell, currently holed up with the Portuguese squad for the duration of the tournament, fancies Paulo Bento's men to start with a win...

You know that clich about Germany and organisation? The run-up to the mouthwatering World Cup opener against Portugal in Salvador has been doing little to dispel it. It's just a short hop up the north-east coast for Joachim Lw's team from their Porto Seguro base to the Carnaval capital in Bahia. 

While Portugal have been toiling away in the heat of the interior of So Paulo state, Germany have been sitting pretty within a firm goal kick's distance of the beach - having been greeted by a mini-carnival of their own at the airport when they touched down last week. 

Yet we need to look beyond the veneer and the expectations to really find the key to this game. Germany are clear favourites, both for this opener in Salvador and to take Group G overall, but the value is undoubtedly with Portugal (3.45n/a to win). 

Many will take the pointers of Euro 2012 into account, which has its advantages and disadvantages. In a sense, Germany's higher status (third favourites behind Brazil and Argentina before the tournament's kick-off) is justified, as they prised a win from a tight opening encounter two years ago in Ukraine. They also underachieved, one felt, with their semi-final exit, while Portugal's run to the last four was seen as a resounding success.

If we look beyond results though, the gap between the two sides is too small to be significant. Portugal were unlucky not to take a draw from that Euro match, and were a lot closer to reaching the final than Germany. While Lw's side were well beaten in a below-par performance against Italy, Paulo Bento's men came agonisingly close to dumping out Spain in the other semi-final. 

The optimism gleaned from that has survived a scratchy qualifying campaign, and Portugal are in good spirits going into this. While Germany have had to contend with injuries to Marco Reus and (earlier in the campaign) Sami Khedira, and have various questions to answer, Bento's plans have remained fairly clear, despite concern over Cristiano Ronaldo's recent niggles.

Bento's first XI more or less picks itself, with the only slight doubt being who will start on the right wing between Nani and Vierinha (the Manchester United player will most likely get the nod ahead of his Wolfsburg counterpart). There are few teams in the competition who can say the same, and it gives them an edge in terms of preparation. Everybody knows what their role is, which is essential in the context of whistle-stop readying after a long season. 

The Bento bubble - where the inhabitants are shielded from any club level worries they might have - could again prove effective. Nani is a prime candidate to prove the value of such an environment, and should have a certain freshness having played so little for United this season. He is 15.014/1 to be first goalscorer, and 5.49/2 to score anytime. 

It appears that Ronaldo has been managed prudently, with a lively return to the fold in the friendly with the Republic of Ireland balanced with plenty of rest and recuperation ever since the start of Portugal's US tour. The British reporting of his iced knee after the squad's first training session largely overlooked that he was one of a number of players having aches and pains managed after a long season. There is a difference between caution and alarm, and there was none of the latter in the Portuguese media, despite such heavy hopes resting on his shoulders.

So despite the stereotypes, it is Portugal who look as well prepared as they could be. Count on this to give them the edge in a tight contest.

Recommended Bet

Back Portugal to beat Germany at 3.45n/a