Hair Raising: Luiz can find the net for Brazil
Only a late goal for Brazil denied Lewis Jones a clean sweep in his first batch of previews for Group A. He is back in the hot seat to mull over the clash between two teams that have that winning feeling flowing through their veins....
Brazil v Mexico
Tuesday 17 June, 20:00
Live on BBC1
Brazil
It was a case of "job done" for the Brazilians in their opening fixture.
A 3-1 victory over a tireless Croatia flattered the hosts, who looked nervous on the big stage and very much short on attacking ideas.
The decision that awarded them their crucial penalty at 1-1 was a bit of a disgrace but if you can't be good the next best thing is to be lucky.
Coach Luiz Felipe Scolari is likely to keep the same starting eleven for this clash, where the winners will guarantee their place in the knockout stages.
They will need to up their game and tempo in order to dismantle a Mexico side that roared past Cameroon pretty easily in their first game.
Mexico
The World Cup escaped a second major refereeing scandal thanks to Oribe Peralta's second half winner for Mexico against the Africans.
El Tri scored two legitimate goals in the opening 45 minutes but the referee and his linesman somehow contrived to disallow both strikes that were scored by Giovanni Dos Santos.
He was robbed of two World Cup goals. I would be getting my lawyers straight on the case.
The Central Americans looked very energetic going forward and played with great skill and enthusiasm, but Brazil will be on a different level to the Cameroonians, who for my money look the whipping boys of the group judging on that performance. Defensively, they were appalling.
Larger than life Mexican coach Miguel Herrera has no new injury worries heading into the match.
Match Odds
The Opta stats make for pretty eye-watering reading if you're looking to take on Brazil at 1.331/3 here. The Seleo have won their three previous meetings with Mexico at a World Cup with a combined score of 11-0 and Herrera's team were beaten 2-0 in the Confederations Cup the last time these two teams met.
Mexico can be punted at 12.011/1 with The Draw a 6.05/1 shot. As with most match winner markets at the World Cup, there is little value to be had, especially, if you're like me, and not totally convinced by Brazil's make-up as potential world beaters.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
This market looks one to attack from a Cash Out point of view.
The market support has been with this game to go over 2.5 at 1.664/6 and it's hard to disagree with that notion.
Brazil looked shaky in defence against Croatia, especially goalkeeper Julio Cesar, and Mexico are well equipped to play their part in this being a goal-fest.
However, it's easy to see the 1.664/6 trading much bigger in-running, therefore the 2.447/5 for under 2.5 is the trading option bet to place.
Three of the four goals scored by these teams at the World Cup have come in the second half and it may take a while for this game to light up. If that's the case that 1.664/6 will fluctuate.
To Score
I'm not usually one for a confident plunge on goalscorer markets, but after watching Mexico defend crosses with as much ability as Snow White's Seven Dwarves, I'm changing my philosophy for one night only.
Cameroon were very limited in terms of attacking nous against the Mexicans but when they got the ball into the box, it was clear to see that Mexico had problems defending balls in the air.
Twice in the first half Cameroon had free headers from corners but Choupu-Moting was flagged offside despite scoring and there was an almighty scramble at one stage that Mexico did well to survive.
Beniot Assou-Ekotto - a limited player but a decent crosser of the ball - had a field day down the left and Samuel Eto'o and Benjamin Moukandjo really should have finished one of the opportunities handed to them.
How are we going to profit from this, I can hear you scream? From a two-pronged attack, my pretties. That's how.
The player on my radar in the To Score market who rates as exceptional value to latch onto crosses is David Luiz at 11.010/1 and I'll be backing centre-forward Fred 2.01/1 as a saver.
No player has looked more enthralled and up for this World Cup than Luiz and you can see it on his face what this competition means to him. Despite never scoring for Brazil, he is a big threat from set-pieces and should relish the space offered to him at free-kicks and corners from the generous Mexico backline.
The much maligned Fred isn't your typical Brazilian centre forward but he's very good at getting on the end of things.
His chances of scoring are obviously recognised by the market but he'll do as a backup to the Luiz punt.
Recommended Bets
Back David Luiz to score @ 11.010/1 (2pts)
Back Fred to score @ 2.01/1 (1pt)
Best Cash Out Tip
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.447/5 with a view to cashing out
Lewis Jones World Cup P/L
Staked: 7pts
Returned: 10.12pts
P/L: 3.12pts
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