Russia v South Korea: Fabio Capello's men can grind out a win

Can Capello lead Russia to the knockout stages?

This game could prove to be the crunch match in Group H to see who will grab second spot behind highly fancied Belgium and Evan Bartlett believes Fabio Capello's Russia should just have what it takes...

Russia v South Korea
Tuesday June 17, 23:00
Live on BBC1

Match Odds
Russia 2.265/4, South Korea 3.7511/4, Draw 3.3512/5

With Belgium the clear favourites in Group H, and Algeria the most likely wooden spoons, this match could well be decisive in regards to who qualifies for the last 16. Russia and South Korea are two nations that have appeared regularly in the World Cup but have failed to make much of a mark on the competition so far.

South Korea of course had that wonderful run to the semi-finals as joint hosts in 2002 but now in their eighth successive finals perhaps they should be looking at more regular success. However, their limp qualifying campaign - where they fell short against the likes of Lebanon, Uzbekistan and Iran - doesn't fill me with much confidence.

Their main attacking threat will come from the flanks where they have two fantastic wingers in Lee Chung-yong and Son Heung-min - the latter having had a great season in the Bundesliga. But a lack of real quality elsewhere, the fact they lost 4-0 to Ghana in their last warm-up game and are without a win in five means I will be opposing them at 3.7511/4.

Russia may have failed to make it out of the group stage of the World Cup since the break-up of the Soviet Union but they look well placed to do so this time in a fairly weak group. The injury to captain Roman Shirokov may be a blow but the fact the Russians are unbeaten in ten games and conceded just five goals in qualification makes them strong favourites for me at 2.265/4. 

Over/Under 2.5 goals

As mentioned above, Russia had a fairly formidable defensive record in qualifying with the hugely experienced goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev protected by centre-halves Vasili Berezutskiy and Sergei Ignashevich  - all of CSKA Moscow - forming a good understanding.

Russia's back four may be fairly immobile but make up for their lack of pace with physicality and positioning and should be able to keep South Korea's out of form attacking line at bay. Although Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Aleksandr Kokorin may chip in with a few goals here and there, Russia lack a really potent centre-forward and therefore under 2.5 goals looks likely in this one at short odds of 1.645/8.

First Goalscorer

Russia have appeared to lack a cutting edge in the final third at times, as outlined above, but if there is one player who can provide goals, it could well be the promising youngster Aleksandr Kokorin. The 23-year-old, who plays for Dinamo Moscow, can operate as a main forward or more likely cutting in from the left in support of the experienced Aleksandr Kerzhakov.

With a good eye for goal and the ability to play with both feet, Fabio Capello may well hope to build his side around the youngster when Russia host the next World Cup in 2018. Back Kokorin to open the scoring here at odds of 7.06/1.

Cash Out Opportunity

With this game expected to be a fairly low-scoring affair, backing a 0-0 scoreline at odds of 9.08/1 before kick-off will ensure a bit of excitement as the first-half gets underway. Then it will be a case of how long you can bear to hold on before cashing out - but somewhere around the half hour mark should provide a nice bit of profit.

Recommended bets
Russia to win @ 2.265/4 (2 pts)
Aleksandr Kokorin to be First Goalscorer @ 7.06/1 (1 pt)

Follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett