Japan v Greece: Blue Samurai to get the better of toothless opponents

Japan look the better offensive side and it is no surprise they are favourites

Both sides are looking to get off the mark in Thursday's late game and Andrew Atherley reckons Japan can lay the foundations for victory with a clean sheet...

Japan v Greece
Thursday June 19, 23:00
Live on BBC1

Japan
The Blue Samurai played their part in an entertaining match against Ivory Coast, taking the lead through Keisuke Honda's 16th-minute strike, but ultimately they were overpowered as their opponents grew in strength and confidence. Two goals in quick succession midway through the second half sealed a 2-1 victory for Ivory Coast.

Greece
A fifth-minute goal from Colombia left Greece playing catch-up from the outset in their opener and that does not suit their style - they have lost six of their last nine when conceding the first goal. Colombia were comfortable 3-0 winners in the end, although it might have been more interesting if Theofanis Gekas had made it 2-1 instead of hitting the crossbar in the 63rd minute.

Gekas was taken off immediately after that miss and his replacement, Fulham's Kostas Mitroglou, may be ready to start now after coming back from injury. The speedy Ioannis Fetfatzidis, another substitute against Colombia, may also get his chance to boost the attack in place of Dimitrios Salpingidis.

Match Odds
Judged on this year's opening performances, Japan look the better offensive side and it is no surprise they are favourites at 2.245/4 but both teams have uninspiring World Cup records. 

After the defeat by Ivory Coast, Japan coach Alberto Zaccheroni spoke of the need to improve morale among his players and past performance suggests they can quickly lose heart - at the last four World Cups, Japan's record after losing their opening game is W0 D1 L3 (whereas their group record after avoiding defeat is W3 D0 L1). 

Greece, too, may need some convincing about whether they can compete at this level. They have now lost six out of seven at World Cup finals (with one win), failing to score in every one of those defeats. The sole success came in 2010 when they bounced back from an opening defeat to beat Nigeria 2-1 in the second round of games.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
In the past year Japan have had 14 out of 17 over 2.5 goals (82%) but Greece's figures pull in the opposite direction, with nine out of 12 under 2.5 goals (75%) in the same period.

Greece's only recent high-scoring games came when they or their opponents scored three goals and, as that seems unlikely in the current circumstances, under 2.5 goals is the pick at 1.774/5.

It is also worth noting that Japan tend towards under 2.5 goals at World Cup finals (nine out of 14) and that their second group game has never had more than one goal.

With the possibility of both teams retreating into their shells after their opening defeats, perhaps the best cash opportunity is to swim against the tide of results at this World Cup and take a punt on under 1.5 goals at 3.211/5.

Correct Score
In such a hard game to call, it is worth looking for a bigger bang for your buck and I'm putting together that Japan are likelier winners, while Greece look toothless but still stubborn, and looking at a low-scoring Japan win.

Japan to win to nil at 3.8514/5 is one option but Japan to win 1-0 at 7.87/1 or 2-0 at 12.011/1 increases the odds significantly. Japan went defensive and tried to hold 1-0 once they went in front against Ivory Coast, which might have been a mistake then but seems a more achievable tactic against the Greeks.

Recommended Bet
Japan to win 1-0 at 7.87/1 (1pt)

Best Cash Out tip
Back Under 1.5 Goals at 3.211/5 as this could be a slow-burner

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 5pts
Returned: 8.64 pts
P/L: + 3.64 pts