Modric can play a pivotal role in frustrating Brazil
Stop dreaming: it's finally here. The World Cup kicks off with an intriguing betting heat and Lewis Jones thinks Croatia are good things with a +1.5 goal head start...
Brazil v Croatia
Thursday June 12, 21:00
Live on ITV1
This is it: football paradise. Drape yourself in your country's colours. Stick that flag on the motor. Feel the passion. It doesn't get much better than this in terms of pure sporting theatre.
Bar your team getting to a cup final or an England match a major tournament, the opening game of the World Cup sends excitement levels off the chart.
Four weeks that will shape football forever lies ahead and thoughts of making a packet by calling it bang on are at the forefront of punters minds.
Will Brazil triumph as host nation? Can Spain reign again and defend their crown? Is England's group as bad as it seems? Which team will emerge as the big price outsiders?
All will be revealed in good time, my pretties. But first, Brazil v Croatia. And it's live!
Match Odds
I'm heading into this World Cup pondering whether Brazil might be slightly overrated to be heralded above the likes of Argentina and Spain in the outright market on what they have achieved thus far.
The form of their Confederations Cup triumph is not strong enough for me to completely trust Luis Felipe Scolari's men at short prices just yet.
Additionally, I watched them struggle to dominate a no-thrills Serbia side in a warm-up match last week when they were at full strength.
The Selecao were unable to break the tough Serbian defensive line until the 58th minute and were being booed by the home crowd when Fred scored.
The cupping of his ear to the crowd suggested that the players were well aware of the edgy atmosphere.
This is why the 1.341/3 for an opening match three points is one that I'm steering clear of despite their obvious strong claims.
Croatia, much like Serbia, will bring little unknown quality to the table.
In Luka Modric they have a player of world-class proportions but playing rigid tactics installed by new boss Niko Kovac, it's unlikely we'll get to see much of Modric's brilliance.
Striker Mario Mandzukic, crucially, is missing through suspension for this clash.
"I completely and totally embody the typical German virtues of thoroughness, orderliness, discipline and organisation," Kovac told reporters recently, which gives us a fair idea of how they'll try and stop a buzzing Brazil.
Fair play to you if you're following the 13.5n/a for a shock win or the 5.59/2 for a share of the spoils. In fairness, it's a bet that may have some trading angles, but onto that a little later.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Our friends at Opta tell us that eight of the last 12 opening matches at World Cups have produced one goal or fewer, certainly suggesting that nerves can play a big part in a host nation's make-up in their opening foray into a major tournament. Under 1.5 here can be backed at 3.711/4.
Croatia's past results also point to a low scoring affair. Nine of their last 12 competitive matches have gone under 2.5 goals and all of those have fallen under the 3.5 line.
They'll come to defend and frustrate and it will be up to Brazil to make the running. Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured by the market at 1.8910/11 with overs at 2.111/10 - it's a market which is bang on the money according to my thinking.
Asian Handicap (Croatia +1.5)
For punters that haven't dabbled in this type of market before, to put it simply, a profit will be winging its way to your Betfair account if Brazil fail to win by two or more goals.
At odds of 1.9210/11, it's a bet that has got plenty of scope and will hopefully get us off to a solid start in our journey to profits-ville at the 2014 World Cup.
This experienced Croatia side, which has over 1,000 caps between them, are well equipped to handle the razzmatazz of the occasion just fine and stick to a defensive game-plan.
Brazil will have an expectant home crowd on their back from the get-go, yelping for goals, but international football is rarely that easy to negotiate, especially at a World Cup.
Evergreen Croatia full-back Dario Srna and former Tottenham man Vedran Corluka are very tactically shrewd and possess good positional sense while, in Modric and Sevilla skipper Ivan Rakitic, the Europeans have two men that can take the sting out of a game.
The core of this Croatia side remains from the one that frustrated both Italy and Spain in Euro 2012, drawing 1-1 with the Italians and only succumbing to an 88th minute Jesus Navas against the subsequent champions.
It's easy to foresee a similar pattern to this game emerging, which may also bring some juice to a Cash Out opportunity on the draw at 5.59/2 as Brazil may take a while to break through.
Recommended Bet
Back Croatia on the Asian Handicap (+1.5) @ 1.9210/11 (3pts)
Best Cash Out tip
Back the draw @ 5.59/2 and trade off when you hit desired profit
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