The Big Match Tactical View: Swansea v Liverpool

Michu will play a crucial role in Swansea's attacking

Brendan Rodgers returns to his former club, and Michael Cox expects the possession battle to be key.

Swansea City v Liverpool, Sunday 1:30, Sky Sports 1. 

Match Odds: Swansea 3.55n/a, Liverpool 2.26/5, The Draw 3.711/4.

This is very much a midtable clash - 10th plays 11th going into the weekend. Brendan Rodgers returns to his former club, and inevitably the battle for possession in the centre of the pitch will be important to the outcome of the match.

But although Rodgers has clearly shaped the philosophies of both clubs considerably, this might be a more direct match than expected. Michael Laudrup favours passing football too, but has Swansea playing the ball forward more quickly this season, after the addition of a tall deep-lying forward in Michu who can hold the ball up and receive straighter, forward passes.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have found more success when transferring the ball quickly to attack and using the pace of their front three in behind, rather than when building interminable passing moves in the centre of the pitch, which allows the opposition to get behind the ball.

Laudrup has a couple of important selection decisions. The most crucial choice is upfront, where Rodgers' old favourite Danny Graham was dropped last weekend, in favour of Itay Shechter, the on-loan Kaiserslautern striker. The Israeli had a decent game in the win at Newcastle, and Laudrup might favour his mobility against a side playing a high defensive line.

Elsewhere, Chico might be fit enough to replace Garry Monk at the back, while Nathan Dyer should retain his place ahead of Wayne Routledge on the right.

Rodgers has to decide upon the shape of his midfield triangle before picking his side. Against Wigan last weekend he started with two deep midfielders and one creative player, Suso, behind Luis Suarez. But after 36 minutes, at 0-0, he removed Suso - who wasn't injured - to bring on Jordan Henderson. Then, Joe Allen sat in front of the defence while Henderson and Steven Gerrard drove forward from midfield - Liverpool looked better, and went onto win the game 3-0.

Both Suso and Henderson started in the Europa League draw against Young Boys - as did Joe Cole, who picked up a goal and an assist, and could be an outside bet to start. But I think Rodgers will persist with Suso, in a 4-2-3-1 shape with Raheem Sterling on the right and Jose Enrique left. Enrique will revert to left-back if Andre Wisdom isn't fit, however, with Glen Johnson moving across the pitch accordingly.

An interesting feature of this match is both side's dependency on one forward, and the key is how quickly they can involve their main man in the play - Swansea must look to Michu quickly, and hope he can get the better of Allen in the holding role, while Liverpool will want to get Suarez running into  the channels. 

Aside from Suarez, no other Liverpool player has scored more than once in the league this this season. Because of that record - and the fact he'll be fired up by Ashley Williams' comments this week - 6.25/1 for Suarez to open the scoring strikes me as good value.

I'm also interested in the bookings market, as Swansea have been shown more yellow cards than any other side this season - 25, which is eight more than Liverpool. In particular, Angel Rangel has been shown six yellows in 12 matches and will probably be up against a tricky, quick opponent - although I'm reluctant to back him to be booked without knowing who Liverpool will play on the left. Instead, I'll stick to backing Swansea in Bookings Match Bet, at around 2.47/5.

Recommended bets:
Back Suarez to score first at 6.05/1
Back Swansea in Bookings Match Bet at 2.47/5