Lee Westwood after last year's win at Sun City
Our man takes a look at this year's renewal at Sun City, where he's dismissed almost half the field at a stroke! Can a debutant win for the first time in 26 years? Steve thinks not....
Tournament History
The Nedbank Challenge is an invitation event, restricted to a field of just 12 top-class players. Johnnie Miller won the inaugural staging back in 1981.
Venue
The Gary Player Country Club, Sun City, South Africa
Course Details
Par 72, 7,825 yards
Gary Player's lengthy creation opened in 1979 to much praise. It looks straightforward enough on TV but it clearly takes some getting to know, as debutants always seem to struggle. Scoring on the four relatively short par fives is usually the key to success. It's been the host course for this event since day one and it's also the venue for the Sunshine Tour's Dimension Data event.
Useful Sites
Course Guide
Hole by Hole Guide
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 9.00am on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2011 - Lee Westwood -15
2010 - Lee Westwood -17
2009 - Robert Allenby -11 (playoff)
2008 - Henrik Stenson -21
2007 - Trevor Immelman -16
What will it take to win the Nedbank Challenge?
Length off the tee is an advantage as scoring on the par fives is key but the most important prerequisite is most definitely course experience, and maybe even event form. Incredibly, given how many debutants line-up each year (this year there are five!), the last one to win was Mark McNulty in 1986.
After years of backing first timers that really ought to like Sun City, the penny has finally dropped with me and I have immediately put a line through Nicolas Colsaerts, Peter Hanson, Bill Haas, Carl Pettersson and Garth Mulroy. The last named has an 8th placed finish at the 2009 Dimension Data around Sun City but that's nowhere near enough course form to lure me in.
Multiple winners are fairly common. Ernie Els, Nick Price and David Frost have all won the title three times and five players have won the event twice. And Stenson, who was beaten by Allenby in a playoff in 2009, came mighty close too.
In-Play Tactics
Clear-cut winners are fairly common. There was a tight four-way finish and a two-man playoff back in 2009 but most years, Sundays are pretty dull. Winners often separate themselves from the field fairly early on and large winning margins aren't rare - Westwood won by eight strokes two years ago and Henrik Stenson did so by nine in 2008.
Sun City isn't a place to play catch-up. In the last 14 years only one winner, Sergio Garcia in 2003, who trailed by three, is the only winner to be more than two shots off the lead after round one. A fast start is essential and anyone five or six back on Thursday evening can probably forget it.
Market Leaders
Seeking his third win in as many years, Lee Westwood understandably heads the market but his layers will quite rightly point to his indifferent current form. It's been very in-and-out of late and three rounds in the 70's after a decent start last week is hardly encouraging. With a move to the States and a change of caddy on his mind also, it's easy enough to see why he's weak in the market.
In stark contrast to Lee, Justin Rose's 62 on Sunday was one hell of a round and he was unlucky not to win. He was runner-up to Trevor Immelman back in 2007 so we know he can handle Sun City although he hasn't broken 70 or bettered 9th place in two visits since. The big question is can he lift himself quickly after Sunday, as a slow start just won't do.
Louis Oosthuizen is the most consistent player on the planet right now - his 5th placed finish on Sunday was his sixth top-six in-a-row, so it's almost inconceivable to think he won't contend again this week. He's only ever played the Nedbank once, back in 2010, when he finished last but he did win the Dimension Data here in 2007, so he can handle the track.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing Louis and I can easily imagine him picking up from where he left off again but I just can't back him. I wrote again in last week's de-brief about his propensity to give up a winning chance and if he wins so be it. I can't say I wasn't tempted though, he's in such excellent form that it's easy to envisage him pulling clear of everyone (as so often happens here) and winning without the stress of a dogfight - as he did in the Open Championship two years ago.
The only other player trading in single-figures is fellow in-form South African, Charl Schwartzel. He partnered his great friend Louis all weekend in Dubai and finished in front of him in third - topping the all-round stats, so he ticks the current form box but he has a pretty inauspicious record at Sun City.
In three Dimension Data's, he's never bettered 8th and fifth place on debut is the best he's fared in this event from three attempts.
Selection
As already stated, I'm dismissing the five debutants as first-timers just don't win, no matter how good they are on paper, and it hasn't been hard to dismiss the other three players not already mentioned either...
Martin Kaymer went AWOL again last week, after a decent first round, and his 8th on debut last year was fairly uninspiring. Francesco Molinari also made his first appearance in the event twelve months ago and really struggled - finishing miles back in 11th and last but not least, Paul Lawrie may as well be a debutant. He hasn't played here this millennium - on his only previous event outing he too finished 11th, way back in 1999. So we're back to the four market leaders...
I know his current form is patchy and that he has his distractions at present but I do think Lee Westwood's worth a small wager before the off. He wasn't in terrific form last year but he soon warmed to his task and by Saturday he was in cruise control, shooting a memorable 62 to put the event to bed.
Nobody in the field has anything approaching his sort of record in the event and it would be no surprise at all to see him make it three in-a-row.
Selection:
Lee Westwood @ 5.04/1
The other event this week is the World Challenge and I'll be back tomorrow with my preview.
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий