Lee Dixon: Rafa's reign at Chelsea will begin with a defeat

There's nothing Carlos likes more than facing Chelsea

Manchester City may not be firing but with Chelsea starting out again under a new manager the Premier League champions will have too much for the European champions, says Lee Dixon

      

Both these teams suffered hugely disappointing results in Europe this week but while City have kept faith in Roberto Mancini, Chelsea did what they usually do and fired the man in charge. 

That makes the Premier Leaguedoubly important for these two big-spending, hugely ambitious clubs and it's fair to say they probably wouldn't have chosen each other as the ideal opponent on their return to domestic affairs. 

The home side are once again starting afresh under a new manager with Rafa Benitez taking the helm until the end of the season - provided he lasts that long of course! 

We often talk about teams enjoying a new manager bump but I'd be very surprised if Rafa kicked off his mini reign at Stamford Bridge with a win. For all the negative press he receives, Mancini has still not seen his side lose a game in 12 Premier League matches this year. And if we stretch the numbers back into last season, City have not been beaten on the road in eight games, dating back to April and a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal.  

Of course, the performances haven't been great and maybe the visitors can start producing some real quality now that the Champions League is over for another season. 

John Terry is again absent for the home side and the Blues are really missing him. I just can't see David Luiz and co holding off a City attack likely to feature Carlos Tevez - a scorer of six in his last half dozen games against the Blues - and Sergio Aguero, who has three in the last two fixtures.

Nevertheless, there's attacking talent is in the DNA of this Chelsea squad and City haven't been too strong defensively. I see both teams scoring but a price of 1.558/15 isn't much fun, but nor is over 2.5 goals at 1.75/7. 

Let's keep it simple with a back of City to win. I like their price of 2.8415/8 and I think they'll have enough to get past whatever Chelsea throw at them. 

And given Tevez enjoys playing them so much, let's take a chance on the Argentinian to score. Anything above 3.02/1 would tempt to have a wager. 

Roberto may be gone and Rafa may be in, but I can't see Chelsea snapping their poor run this weekend.

Recommended Bets

Back City to win @ 2.8415/8 
Back Carlos Tevez to score @ 3.02/1 and above

The Betfair's Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Chelsea have conceded in each of their last seven outings in the Premier League and against a team with the firepower of Man City I don’t think that trend will stop on Sunday. They are without a win in their last four and facing a quality Man City side who put five past Villa last week and are yet to taste defeat this campaign.     

I like the draw in this game but I also think both teams will score at least once in the game, therefore for me 0-0 isn’t an option. I will be dutching 2-2 at 14.0 and 3-3 at 48.0 to trade (pays around 10/1) but I will also lay the draw at 3.65 to cover that stake. The only score I am worried about is 1-1 which would lose both bets (as would 4-4 or a higher scoring draw), however, as soon as one team scores two goals you have some risk free money to trade. Remember to keep checking your Cash Out position and allow for the loss in the Match Odds market should the game end in a draw!

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

Games between the top sides have been goal-crazy so far this season, but I think Rafael Benitez’s early tactics at Chelsea will be cautious and defensive-minded. He’ll want the midfield to protect the defence more keenly, and I think the game against Manchester City could be tight and cagey, with neither side setting the tempo. [2.4] for Under 2.5 Goals looks good to me.