Two And a Half Goals: Everton to entertain, Spurs to struggle

Can AVB point Tottenham back in the right direction?

The Inside Man brings you over/under 2.5 goals bets from the Premier League, League Two and La Liga 

Saturday
Everton v Norwich
It's been good fun both watching and betting on events at Goodison Park this season. 

Four of Everton's five home matches have been high-scoring, while nine of their total 12 league games have turned a profit for goal-backers.

There's no denying the prowess of the Everton strike force at home. No away team has yet managed to keep a clean sheet. In fact, the Toffees have netted two or more goals against all their guests bar one, with only Manchester United keeping them down to a single goal.

Nikica Jelavic looks a good thing to add to his five goals so far and help extend Everton's unbeaten home record, especially when you consider some of the thumpings Norwich have suffered so far this year, including a 5-0 and 4-1 on the road.

There's no doubting that Norwich are strong and defensively tight at home. It's that form that will probably see them stay up. But they've conceded twice as many goals on their travels as they have at home.

Everton are the real deal this year and I expect them get back on track from a rare defeat last week by wreaking havoc on the Canaries.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.794/5

Aldershot v Port Vale
This is a total mismatch on paper, but watch out, it's a trap.

Aldershot lie third from bottom of League Two with the worst home record in the division. My goodness, how do they even attract fans to the Recreation Ground after scoring only two goals? Yes that's right, just two goals, in nine home games. Looking up the table, we see Port Vale sitting in second place, having scored more goals on the road than Aldershot have scored in total. 

But be careful, because this game looks destined to be very low-scoring, and that makes an upset much more possible.

Seven of Aldershot's nine home games have been low-scoring. Yes, they almost never score, but they also concede just a goal a game on average. And the gap is getting ever closer. Their last five league games produced just five goals, with 'The Shots' scoring two and conceding just three. Two of those games ended goalless.

And if you're expecting Port Vale to supply the goals, be careful. Their last five away games were all low scoring with Vale averaging less than a goal per game during that run. Nil-nil backers could be in for an exciting afternoon.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.981/1

Sunday
Tottenham v West Ham
When Spurs are good, they are great. But they've now lost their last three league games and theflashes of brilliance are looking more like distant figures in the rear-view mirror.

Strangely enough, it seems Tottenham turn up for the big games. Their matches against teams with big reputations have yielded goals galore. But against the lesser lights they find things heavy going. It was painful viewing for anyone, like me unfortunately, who watched them struggle past Aston Villa, held by Norwich, and then lose to Wigan.

Those were games that should have been home bankers but which ended up low-scoring and agonizing-to-watch. Overall, four from six of Tottenham's home games have been low-scoring.

And now here come West Ham to kick-over more tables and further ruin the party. The Hammers sit two points above Spurs in the table and will want to keep it that way. I have no doubt a draw would be enough to make Big Sam happy. In fact, it's fair to say his side approach all their away games with an air of caution, when you consider they've conceded just six goals in five matches on the road.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.245/4

Espanyol v Getafe
These are desperate times for Espanyol who sit rock bottom of La Liga with just two wins from 12 matches. It's at times like this that sides start taking risks, doing anything to get themselves out of trouble.

So if Espanyol fall behind, then whatever happens next, expect it to be fast, frantic and probably furious, too. Against Rayo Vallecano it worked, as Espanyol fought back to win a thrilling game 3-2. But against Osasuna it failed, as they slumped to a 3-0 loss. Two thirds of Espanyol's home games have been high-scoring this season. Those matches have averaged exactly three goals per game, a figure which I expect to rise as the season goes on and the Catalans become increasingly desperate.

As for Getafe, they find themselves safely tucked in midtable and in a position where they can afford to launch a bid for a European place. They're probably not good enough to achieve that, but there's nothing to stop them trying. Their away record is a mixed bag, but their road games average around two and a half goals per game. Any show of ambition from them in this one is all it would take for this game to light up and send that figure rising.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.111/10