Brazil Grand Prix Betting: Hamilton to win but Alonso to put up brave title charge

Fernando Alonso is hoping for rain in Brazil

James Frankland expects Lewis Hamilton to win from the front in the final Grand Prix of the season, but a podium finish for Fernando Alonso will add great interest to the destination of the Drivers Championship...

Lewis Hamilton took his pace from the US Grand Prix with him to Brazil, sweeping to pole position in his final race weekend for McLaren. In a memorable day for the silver cars, Jenson Button lines up in second place, the team's first front-row lockout since the Malaysian Grand Prix.

Hamilton is therefore favourite to take his second consecutive win at 2.466/4 while his soon-to-be ex-teammate Button can be backed at 5.39/2. Third-placed Mark Webber is available at 13.5n/a, while the title-challenging Sebastian Vettel starts fourth and has odds of 6.411/2 for the win.

For me, Hamilton looks on as strong a run of form as we've seen from him in a while and, mechanical failures aside, I think tomorrow's race is his to lose. You can also back him at 5.04/1 to record fastest lap on the way to victory, but I think the fastest lap will fall to Vettel as he bids to retain his title crown. You can back Vettel to record the quickest circuit of Interlagos at 3.3512/5, and to finish second behind Hamilton at 2.56/4.

Looking at the title battle itself, Vettel - available to back at 1.211/5 in the Drivers Championship market - starts with a 13-point advantage and will win the big prize if he finishes in the top four, regardless of where Fernando Alonso (5.59/2) places.

Alonso needs to win with Vettel fifth or lower, or be second with Vettel eighth or lower, while a third place finish for the Ferrari man requires Vettel to be no higher than 10th. The Spaniard could manage only eighth on the grid but can be backed at 2.35/4 to get that podium placing, mainly because of the threat of rain, which looks set to make an appearance during tomorrow's race and will help Alonso arguably more than Vettel.

Winning might seem a long shot, but then it would have felt that way in Malaysia from ninth place on the grid and he won sensationally in Kuala Lumpur, so cover him at 11.5n/a to win too.

Of the contenders for a Top Six finish, Williams' Pastor Maldonado is worth keeping an eye on - the Venezuelan starts in that position so only needs to maintain it until the finish and can be backed at 3.211/5 in this market. He may need to rely on misfortune striking one of the drivers ahead though, as it would not be a surprise to see Alonso coming through on his championship charge.

Kimi Raikkonen may also pose a threat starting from ninth and the market reflects the Lotus driver's pace, placing him 1.412/5 to finish sixth or higher.

Recommended Bets

Lewis Hamilton to win @ 2.466/4
Fernando Alonso to finish on the podium @ 2.35/4
Sebastian Vettel to set fastest lap @ 3.3512/5
Pastor Maldonado to finish in the Top Six @ 3.211/5