Luke Moore: Injuries taking their toll at last season's surprise package

It's a bit glum up north currently for Toon boss Alan Pardew

Newcastle's remarkable fifth place finish in the Premier League last season hasn't been built on, and there's a few reasons for that says Luke Moore, not least injuries...

No sooner had I announced that Queens Park Rangers have a better chance of staying up than their price suggests because they were not only likely to fire Mark Hughes imminently, but they have a decent squad at their disposal in need of simple motivation, did Tony Fernandes finally hand Sparky a painting of a Spitfire and usher him out the side door with a short handshake (the Welshman is notoriously testy about that) and a fake smile.

Just about as soon as Hughes' car had disappeared into the sunset was the sound of an electric window descending heard, and all of a sudden everything wasn't just rosy in the garden, it was t'riffic.

QPR have every chance of an escape now. It's a big job but, for all his faults, when it comes to motivating a group there's no-one better than Harry Redknapp. I'm even more confident that laying the west Londoners at 1.75/7 to be relegated was a good shout.

Back to this week then. As Newcastle United let a lead against battering-ram-carrying, part-time footballers Stoke City dissipate into a 2-1 defeat in the last 10 minutes of last night's game at the Britannia, if you're a Toon Army devotee I officially forgive you for feeling a bit worried.

Last season's success story, Alan Pardew's black and white army were marching on going into their third season in the Premier League after finishing a coupon-busting fifth last time out. Rather than galvanising, strengthening and flying forwards on horseback with a blood-curdling battle cry though, the north-easterners are starting to do a pretty good impression of the first team I can think of that are actually suffering from third season syndrome.

We've had plenty of teams down the years suffer from second season syndrome, a combination of other teams working out how to play against a team as well as the almost subconscious inertia experienced when groups of players and sometimes even managers and coaching staff start to consider themselves established top-flight operators a little too early and are soon scrambling around for solutions to problems they never knew they had. Newcastle are now in their third 38-course meal at the top table in world football and all of a sudden seem to have forgotten which cutlery to use first as well as which way to pass the port. So what's gone wrong?

Well in short, injuries. Lots and lots of injuries. And not just any old crocks, but injuries to key players during winnable periods of the season.

At various stages since the beginning of the season, United have lost blond-bombshell-and-key-defender-in-chief Fabrizio Coloccini, jinky wonderkid Hatem Ben Arfa, teenage-heartthrob-and-player-of-genuine-quality Yohan Cabaye, one-man-A-bomb Cheick Tiote as well as both Taylors, Dan Gosling, Demba Ba and adult, footballing mascot Shola Ameobi. That's some list.

But it is not just the injuries they've suffered, it's the time of the season they've suffered them.

Newcastle have won just one of their last nine games (their only point in their last five matches coming in a 1-1 draw at Liverpool, a team that, without Luis Suarez, could play constantly without a final whistle from now until May and manage less than five goals) including confidence-sapping defeats both at home and away to promoted sides, exactly the sort of games that Pardew and his coaching staff would have ear-marked for wins without question.

The Magpies have been shown to have a pretty threadbare squad, and are playing without any sort of confidence whatsoever. The way they've been conceding goals has been easily avoidable with a bit of leadership and belief, something that has gone walkabout since the loss of senior players.

Also, Newcastle have been a victim of their own success. In finishing fifth last season they qualified for the interminable Europa League, and the Thursday-Sunday grind is starting to take its toll. They just don't have the bodies or the quality of player in enough depth to compete on both fronts, and for every decent win against Bruges or Bordeaux it seems there's a poor result in the league to pay at some point. As we've seen time and time again, winning and losing in the league can easily become a habit.

Next up in the league for Newcastle is Wigan at home. At first glance it looks an easy game, but Wigan have actually been playing ok recently. They were the better side in the first half against Man City last night and should have gone into the break ahead. It was the same story at Anfield.

The Latics also beat Reading and went to Spurs and won, so St James's Park will hold no fear for them. Newcastle are so low on confidence at the moment and so short of personnel, I can't see where their next win is coming from. Back the draw at 3.412/5.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw @ 3.55/2 in Newcastle v Wigan